Securities Times Network News: Guotai Junan announced in its latest report that it will raise TSMC's target stock price to $238 while maintaining an "increase in holdings" rating. The agency has raised its revenue and profit forecasts for TSMC from 2024 to 2026. Specifically, the revenue forecast for 2024 has been raised from NT $2819.8 billion to NT $2885.8 billion, and the GAAP net profit forecast has been raised from NT $1114.2 billion to NT $1184.4 billion. The revenue forecast for 2025 has been raised from NT $349.7 billion to NT $37517 billion, and the GAAP net profit forecast has been raised from NT $1437.6 billion to NT $1675.7 billion. The revenue forecast for 2026 has been raised from NT $4057 billion to NT $4375.8 billion, and the GAAP net profit forecast has been raised from NT $1691.1 billion to NT $1991.6 billion.
Guotai Junan pointed out that TSMC's gross profit margin in the third quarter reached 57.8%, a year-on-year increase of 3.5 percentage points and a month on month increase of 4.6 percentage points, exceeding market expectations of 54.8%. This growth is mainly due to the improvement of capacity utilization. The institution expects the gross profit margin for the fourth quarter to be between 57% and 59%, far higher than the market expectation of 54.7%.
In addition, Guotai Junan also mentioned that TSMC's competitive advantage has been further strengthened in the confirmation of AI demand and the marginal changes in the competitive landscape of wafer foundry. It is expected that by 2025, TSMC's CoWoS production capacity will continue to double, while the progress of overseas fabs is also accelerating. These factors collectively support Guotai Junan's optimistic expectations for TSMC's performance in the coming years.