Nowadays, "Simei", GLP-1, and weight loss have become hot topics among the public, and Novo Nordisk has seized the opportunity to deliver impressive performance in the weight loss sector in the first half of the year.
Recently, Danish pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk (NVO. US) released its first half 2024 performance report, with revenue of 133.409 billion Danish kroner, approximately 19.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24% in Danish kroner and a 25% increase in fixed exchange rate; The net profit for the first half of the year was 45.457 billion Danish kroner, approximately 6.65 billion US dollars, representing a year-on-year increase of 16% in Danish kroner terms; Operating profit of 57.78 billion Danish kroner, approximately 8.45 billion US dollars, increased by 18% year-on-year in Danish kroner and 19% in fixed exchange rate.
The growth of performance cannot be achieved without the contribution of GLP-1 drugs. According to the financial reports of Salino and Nord, the total sales of the star drug semaglutide reached 12.96 billion US dollars, accounting for about 2/3 of Novo Nordisk's total revenue. Specifically, the sales revenue of Ozempic, a hypoglycemic injection version of semaglutide, was approximately 8.287 billion US dollars (56.685 billion Danish kroner), a year-on-year increase of 36%; The sales revenue of Rybelsus, the oral version of Simeglutide for lowering blood sugar, was approximately 1.598 billion US dollars (10.931 billion Danish kroner), a year-on-year increase of 31%; The sales revenue of the Simeglutide weight reducing version of Wegovy was approximately 3.075 billion US dollars (21.036 billion Danish kroner), a year-on-year increase of 74%.
Nevertheless, Novo Nordisk still lowered the upper limit of its annual operating profit. This also caused its stock price to drop by over 5% on August 7th.
The performance of 'internet celebrities' is lower than expected
The reason for lowering the annual operating profit limit is mainly due to the weaker performance of Simeglutide in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.
According to Novo Nordisk's first quarter financial report, the company achieved a total revenue of 65.349 billion Danish kroner (approximately 9.496 billion US dollars) and an operating profit of 31.846 billion Danish kroner (approximately 4.628 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 30%.
Among them, the sales of Ozempic, a hypoglycemic drug for injection of semaglutide, continued to climb to 27.81 billion Danish kroner (4.041 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 43%; The sales revenue of oral hypoglycemic product Rybelsus was 5.013 billion Danish kroner (728 million US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 17%; The sales of weight loss drug Wegovy doubled to 9.377 billion Danish kroner (1.363 billion US dollars). The three products of Simeglutide generated a total revenue of 42.2 billion Danish kroner (6.132 billion US dollars).
Based on this, Novo Nordisk has raised its profit and sales prospects, predicting that sales may increase by 19% to 27% and operating profit may increase by 22% to 30% in 2024.
But in the second quarter, Novo Nordisk's revenue was 68.06 billion Danish kroner, approximately 9.96 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and its net profit was 20.05 billion Danish kroner, approximately 2.93 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3%. Compared with the double-digit growth of profits in the previous quarter, the second quarter's profits did indeed slow down.
However, in the eyes of many industry insiders, semaglutide still has the potential to challenge the "drug king". According to Merck's financial report, the performance of Keytruda (pembrolizumab, K drug) remains impressive. In the first half of the year, K Pharmaceutical's revenue reached 14.217 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 18%.
As a pharmaceutical industry analyst from a securities firm told 21st Century Business Herald reporters, GLP-1 drugs represented by Novo Nordisk's semaglutide have achieved great success in weight loss. As the weight loss market continues to heat up, it is estimated that by 2024, the sales of Smeglutide will exceed $28 billion, which may surpass Keytruda and become the new champion of global drug sales.
On June 25th, Novo Nordisk announced that the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) had approved the company's R&D and production of Novo Nordisk; reg; The application for marketing of semaglutide injection for long-term weight management in China.
Coping with market 'internal competition'
At present, Novo Nordisk Smeaglutide has a strong dominant position in the market, but there are also competitors who can disrupt the market. Eli Lilly and Company's Tilpotide is considered its biggest competitor.
On July 19th, the official website of the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) announced that Mounjaro (Tirzepatide), a dual agonist of glucose dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptors from Eli Lilly, has been approved for marketing as a new indication for improving long-term weight management in overweight patients with adult obesity or at least one weight related complication on the basis of a low calorie diet and increased exercise. It is worth mentioning that tilpotide is the first and currently the only approved GIPR/GLP-1R dual agonist.
In addition, currently available clinical trial data for non head to head semaglutide STEP 1 and tiltrotide SURMUNT-3 show that semaglutide has a slightly lower weight loss effect than tiltrotide.
In a clinical trial with a weekly dose duration of 68 weeks, users of 2.4mg semaglutide lost an average of 14.9% weight, while in a clinical trial with a weekly dose duration of 72 weeks, users of 10/15mg teriparatide lost an average of 21.1% weight. The SURMOUNT-3 trial showed that after 12 weeks of intensive lifestyle intervention and 72 weeks of treatment with teriparatide, patients lost 26.6% of their body weight.
In addition to Eli Lilly, according to the China Drug Clinical Trial Registration and Information Disclosure Platform and public information, at least 9 GIPR/GLP-1R dual target new drugs independently developed by Chinese companies or jointly developed by introducing equity have entered the clinical research stage. These products are from Hengrui Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Borui Pharmaceutical, Hansen Pharmaceutical, etc. The indications under development include type 2 diabetes, overweight or obesity, MASH.
According to a research report by China Galaxy Securities, with the commercialization and volume increase of tilpotide and semaglutide after their listing, the global market size of GLP-1 drugs has grown rapidly, and multiple companies are competing to expand into the GLP-1 weight loss field. At the same time, there is still room for further improvement in the penetration rate of GLP-1 treatment in the hypoglycemic field. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic GLP-1 related leaders.
However, in the increasingly fierce market competition, semaglutide is also accelerating its breakthrough and expanding into more application markets. When announcing its performance report for the first half of 2024, Novo Nordisk revealed that the Phase III OASIS 4 study on weight loss with oral semaglutide Rybelsus (25mg) has been successfully completed.
In addition, in terms of expanding indications, in the third quarter of 2024, Novo Nordisk will submit a new indication application for semaglutide 1mg for the treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in China; In the fourth quarter of 2024, Novo Nordisk will announce the results of a Phase III SOUL study on the improvement of cardiovascular outcomes (CVOT) with oral semaglutide 14mg; The results of the Phase III ESSENSE study on the treatment of metabolic dysfunction associated steatohepatitis (MASH) with semaglutide 2.4mg will also be announced in the fourth quarter of 2020.