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Imperial Bank of Canada stated that it is expected that the Bank of Canada will maintain overnight interest rates at 5%. The statement will cite a large amount of evidence to prove that interest rate hikes so far have suppressed economic growth. We do not agree with the concerns of the central bank that inflation may become sticky in a clear economic slowdown trend. This is because it is expected to take some time to see a decrease in price pressure related to domestic demand, as the economy transitions from a state of contraction to a state of surplus production capacity. But we feel that these concerns, as well as the lack of downward momentum in key core inflation indicators that may be mentioned in the statement, will keep the central bank in a somewhat hawkish tone. If there is no progress towards the 2% inflation target in the coming months, the statement will open the door to further interest rate hikes.
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