Since its release in June this year, Apple's first hybrid reality (MR) headset product has made substantial progress.
Recently, media reports have reported that Apple will officially mass produce its first generation MR product, Vision Pro, in December this year. At the same time, the supply chain proportion of Vision Pro in mainland China has significantly increased to around 60%. It is reported that the first batch of stock is about 400000 units, and the sales target for next year is 1 million units. It is expected to reach 10 million units in the third year.
Although considered a "revolutionary product" by Apple, at the beginning of the release of Vision Pro, institutions and investors were actually not optimistic. Not only did Apple's stock price drop after reaching a historic high, but also the A-share Apple industry chain and MR industry chain plummeted during the same period.
However, with the news of mass production spreading, the market has become active again. On November 29th, the stock prices of A-share related industry chain companies fluctuated, with Tianyin Holdings and Yuhuan CNC hitting the limit up, while stocks of Dongni Electronics, Daheng Technology, Lianchuang Electronics, Runxin Technology, Bozhong Precision Industry and others surged.
Expected shipment volume remains a mystery
In June of this year, Apple unveiled its first hybrid reality (MR) headset at the World Developers Conference WWDC. The release of this headset product called Apple Vision Pro, which Apple has dubbed a "revolutionary product," has excited the market.
This product is priced at $3499 (approximately RMB 25000) and is planned to start selling in the United States early next year and in other regions later next year.
However, according to the follow-up feedback, Apple's head display products have not been widely recognized by the market. They are not only roast about the high pricing and late launch, but also the news of output reduction a month after the release.
At that time, media reports showed that several people who had direct knowledge of the manufacturing process of the device had revealed that Apple had been forced to significantly lower its production forecast for the Vision Pro next year. The complexity of the design of the head display device and the difficulties in production were the reasons why Apple had no choice but to reduce its production targets, and the plan to launch a cheaper version would also have to be postponed.
According to the report, Apple is only planning to produce less than 400000 Vision Pro units in 2024. At the same time, the organic structure has also lowered its expected shipment volume. TrendForce Consulting estimated that the shipment volume of Apple Vision Pro in 2024 would only be about 200000 units, which is mainly related to the production difficulty and capacity limitations of Vision Pro.
At that time, a person related to Apple China responded to the media, saying, "The production plan of headsets is usually adjusted in a timely manner according to market conditions, and the specific coordination is unified by relevant departments."
In September, renowned Apple analyst Guo Minggui released a report stating that based on estimates of maximum production capacity from some component suppliers, the shipment volume of Vision Pro in 2024 is expected to be up to 400000-600000 units, which is less than market expectations of about 1 million units.
Based on the latest media reports, if Vision Pro's sales target for next year is 1 million units, it seems to have returned to the initial expected level of the market, which to some extent indicates a recovery in the headphone market.
The reporter did not obtain confirmation from Apple regarding this expected shipment volume target. A supply chain insider confirmed that they are indeed producing some orders for Apple's head display products, but cannot confirm the mass production target and timeline. Li Xun Precision Chairman Wang Laichun previously stated that Li Xun Precision is preparing for the production of the Apple Vision Pro, an Apple headset product that will be launched early next year.
An industry observer told reporters bluntly, "Vision Pro will not soon become Apple's main profit growth point. Since the cooling of the metaverse at the end of last year, the VR industry may find it difficult to achieve sufficient growth for a considerable period of time in the future."
The industry is full of unknowns
From the current industry situation, on the one hand, we firmly believe that MR products are expected to become one of the core intelligent hardware products in the post mobile era, and we will firmly invest in them.
Goethe Corporation has publicly stated multiple times that it is optimistic about the future development of the VR/MR/AR industry and will continue to deepen its investment in this field. LanSi Technology, also known as LanSi Technology, has established a customer, product, and technology layout and implementation in the AR/VR field, providing customers with one-stop solutions and services for products, covering materials and components such as glass, metal, plastic, optics, cameras, acoustic modules, as well as bonding and assembly services. Lixun Precision expressed optimism about the vast development space of AR/MR and other industries in the future, and the company will assist first-class customers in joint development.
According to 21st Century Business Herald reporters, there are numerous companies in the AR/VR industry chain corresponding to A-shares. Changying Precision has revealed that AR/VR has already made a revenue contribution and is a key area for the company's layout. There are multiple projects from domestic and foreign key customers in research and development or mass production, and as the research and development projects continue to be implemented, they will continue to grow. Bozhong Precision once responded that the company was responsible for assembling the Apple Vision Pro. In addition, companies such as Changxin Technology, Lingnan Shares, Hongli Zhihui, TCL Technology, Guangfeng Technology, Jiachuang Video, and Guoguang Electric have all established their presence.
On the other hand, from a revenue perspective, the endpoint is still not visible.
From the recent changes in the MR industry, the market is quite volatile. In November, Pico, the star product department of ByteDance, just announced large-scale layoffs. Pico CEO Zhou Hongwei's internal statement during the layoff stated that the team has recently carefully reviewed the launched business and industry market situation, and believes that the VR industry is currently in a very early stage. Previously, we estimated the development of the industry and market to be relatively optimistic, but in reality, it was not as fast as expected.
The third quarter report for fiscal year 2023 released by Meta shows that although revenue has been strong, the revenue of the metaverse business has rapidly declined. The Reality Labs department responsible for the metaverse project under the company generated revenue of $210 million and a net loss of $3.7 billion. According to official announcements, this loss will continue to intensify in the future.
An Apple head display product optoelectronic supplier told 21st Century Business Herald reporters that the company definitely invested in research and development because it is optimistic about this track, and VR will be a new type of terminal for future innovation. "The company only produces VR related products in small quantities because the virtual reality market has not yet emerged, and VR is not a necessity like smartphones, making it impossible to predict the size of the VR market." As for when the climax will come, the person admitted that it still depends on the development of the market.
A head display component supplier also expressed optimism about the VR market. Although the parts supplied to related terminals have been in mass production, the upstream demand has not yet reached the explosive stage due to the low demand in the terminal market. "I'm afraid we'll have to wait until 2027 because it's also difficult for us to predict."