According to Interface News today, Apple will officially mass produce the first generation Vision Pro in December this year, with the first batch of around 400000 units in stock. The sales target for 2024 is 1 million units, and the third year is 10 million units; The hardware cost is approximately $1700. The supply chain proportion of Apple Vision Pro in mainland China has significantly increased to around 60%.
Meanwhile, Apple's supply chain has begun preparing production plans for the second-generation Vision Pro.
Taiwan Electronic Times reported today that Apple's second-generation Vision Pro will have four models, of which two have been confirmed: one will be targeted at the high-end market like the first generation, and the other will be a budget version. Apple aims to reduce the BOM (Bill of Materials) cost of the budget version to 50% of the first generation product.
The second generation Vision Pro will begin sampling in the second quarter of 2024, and according to the schedule, it is expected to be released as early as the second half of 2025; And Apple is also synchronously developing AR glasses.
Apple took over 5 years to build the first generation Vision Pro, and the industry pointed out that the second generation Vision Pro is fast. If it enters P1, it is estimated to enter mass production in 1-2 years.
The first generation Vision Pro technology was stunning before, but the price of $3499 has deterred many consumers, which is three times the price of Meta's highest level Quest Pro.
Therefore, if Apple wants to open up the XR device market, the affordable version is a path that Apple has to take. Recently, foreign media reported that Apple plans to launch a Vision Pro priced between $1500 and $2500, which is 28.55% -57.13% lower than the previous generation. Perhaps it is the second generation affordable version model mentioned in today's news.
The XR head is prominently valued by Apple. Cook has repeatedly expressed his belief that AR will change human life and will soon be ubiquitous like the internet or smartphones, and Apple will continue to invest. There are also reports in the supply chain that Apple has indeed invested heavily and recently established a VPG business unit specifically responsible for headwear devices.
It is worth mentioning that Apple will hold the "Apple Vision Pro Developer Lab" event in Shanghai today (November 28th), where developers can experience visionOS, iPadOS, or iOS applications running on Apple Vision Pro. DIGITIMES Research analysis shows that after Apple entered XR, 2 million applications on iOS were automatically transferred to the AppStore on visionOS, which is a great blessing for users and developers.
Vision Pro is expected to usher in a new cycle of consumer electronics, and suppliers may have these opportunities
As a heavyweight product of Apple in the XR field, Vision Pro is seen as a milestone achievement in the development of consumer electronics. On November 26th, Xinda Securities reported that Vision Pro is expected to usher in a new cycle of consumer electronics, and its industry chain has significant long-term potential.
In terms of specific links in the industrial chain, Minsheng Securities reported on November 13th that Vision Pro technology innovation is impressive, indicating the main route for hardware upgrades. Specifically:
1) Optical solution: In terms of VR, Pancake has the advantage of being lightweight and can optimize weight reduction by about 50%; In addition, the IPD adjustment equipped in Vision Pro significantly improves refractive power and imaging quality, and is expected to become mainstream in the long term. In terms of AR, currently Birdbath is the mainstream solution, and the future of diffraction waveguide solutions is promising.
2) Display scheme: In terms of VR, FastLCD has the best overall effect and cost, making it the current mainstream; The Micro OLED monocular pixels used in Vision Pro reach up to 23 million, with an effect of over 4K, leading a new round of XR display hardware innovation.
3) Perceived interaction: In terms of sensors, VisionPro is equipped with 12 cameras, 5 sensors, and 6 microphones to provide support for interaction. Users only need to simply stare at the app and interact with gestures. In addition, eye tracking technology can significantly improve the interactive experience, enabling applications to move from the B-end to the C-end.
Analysts further point out that the iteration of XR product technology will bring new growth opportunities for VR hardware. The screens and optics with a high proportion of value, as well as the testing supply chain with a high degree of customization, deserve special attention.
Based on today's report and brokerage reports, Vision Pro supply chain related vendors include: