France and Belgium tightened their security guard after being attacked by Islamists. Anti Semitic behavior and a series of explosion warnings have increased.
Officials and analysts say that some European countries have once again felt the spillover of another conflict in the Middle East one month after the Israeli-Kazakhstan war, but today's security threat is significantly different in nature and potential impact from the threat almost 10 years ago, with the terrorist attack launched by the Islamic State killing hundreds of people in Europe.
Some people say that if the Israeli-Kazakhstan war is delayed and spread, the potential impact on Europe may go beyond extreme violence, potentially weakening Europe politically, making new demands for support for the Ukrainian war, and encouraging far-right parties.
Gesine Weber, a European security expert at the German Marshall Fund, said, "The similarities are raising the threat awareness of European countries, but the 2015/16 attacks were a blow to Western freedom of life and dissatisfaction with a system. Today's attacks are more targeted at a group, namely Jews
France, which has a large number of Jewish and Muslim residents, has seen 850 anti Semitic acts since Hamas attacked Israel last month. Anti Semitic incidents have also increased in other European countries, with police strengthening the security of Jewish schools and churches.
Gerard Hunger, Vice Chairman of the Committee of Representatives of French Jewish Institutions, told French radio, "We feel anti Semitism in the air
France and Belgium raised their security alert to the highest level in October, after a previous Islamic attack killed three people. The bomb threat led to the evacuation of European airports and tourist attractions. Last week, French police fired on a masked woman who allegedly threatened to detonate herself at a subway station in Paris.
A recent survey by French television station BFMTV found that 80% of respondents are concerned about domestic terrorist threats. Charles Michel, President of the European Council, warned of "significant security consequences" that could "exacerbate community tension and fuel extremism
Thomas Renard, director of the Dutch International Counter Terrorism Center, said, "There is a lot of tension in various parts of Europe, including acts of sabotage, arson or attacks on synagogues, as well as threats to specific targets both online and offline, which are clearly related to the conflict between Israel and Kazakhstan
He also said, 'This is not terrorism yet, but there has been a significant increase in tension related to violent incidents,' including protests in Europe that prohibit pro Palestinian protests.
Worried about the escalation of conflicts
Renard said that unlike the terrorist attacks launched by the Islamic State across Europe in 2015 and 2016, today's threat comes from "isolated individuals" within Europe.
French information radio said that the French Internal Security Agency has reached the same conclusion. The radio station said that today's militants are younger and "not necessarily related to terrorist organizations".
But Le Monde said that French intelligence agencies have not yet recorded an increase in the threat of radical Islamists. It said that in recent weeks, pro Palestinian protests in France have featured Palestinian flags and slogans, rather than Hamas' green flag or Islamic State's black flag, but a march in London reportedly featured these flags.
Reinard said, "Global Jihad organizations have their own plans and may not necessarily be the same as Hamas, even if some are the same. These organizations ultimately have differences in their fundamental goals. Hamas is a nationalist organization. The Islamic State and Al Qaeda are global organizations, with completely different plans, strategies, and means
But if the conflict delays or spreads, things may change.
Renard said, "Photographs of Muslim children who have died will further assist the propaganda of the Islamic State and Al Qaeda
Other analysts believe that Europe will be politically weakened. The European Union has disagreed on its response to the Israeli Kazakh war, and last month's summit took several hours to agree to a "pause" in humanitarian aid for Gaza. Some people believe that the differences between members in supporting Israel and sympathizing with the Palestinians may have long-term consequences.
Stefan Lehne, a senior researcher at Carnegie Europe, said in a recent analysis that "the threat of terrorism and other forms of violence will increase, and radical right-wing parties will use the situation and their nationalist plans to hinder the finding of solutions in Europe
Weber believes that the delay in the Middle East conflict may affect European security considerations in other ways.
She said, "Once the United States decides to significantly reduce its support for Ukraine by prioritizing competition with China and supporting Israel, it means that Europeans will mainly bear the financial and military support for Ukraine