Is Nvidia being abandoned after being heavily reduced in holdings? There is a significant divergence in the direction of the future market
美少女994
发表于 昨天 22:49
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On November 14th local time, the three major US stock indexes collectively closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 0.64%, the S&P 500 index falling 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.47%.
The latest disclosed US 13F filing shows that globally renowned hedge fund Bridgewater, as well as institutions such as Deutsche Bank and Jinglin, are significantly reducing their holdings in Nvidia. Data shows that as of the end of the third quarter of this year, Bridgewater's holdings in Nvidia have decreased by nearly 30% compared to the end of the second quarter.
Currently, there is significant divergence in the market regarding Nvidia's future performance, with some institutions raising their target prices while others hold different opinions. Terry Smith, a fund manager known as the "British Buffett," believes that Nvidia's high profit margins may be difficult to sustain.
Powell suppresses expectations of interest rate cuts
The three major indexes accelerated their decline in the late trading session
On November 14th local time, the three major US stock indexes collectively closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 0.64%, the S&P 500 index falling 0.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.47%. The Nasdaq Biotech Index closed down 2.4%, hitting a new low since August.
The "Seven sisters of Science and Technology" were mixed. Google and Amazon fell by over 1%, while Meta experienced a slight decline; Apple rose over 1%, while Nvidia, Microsoft, Netflix, and Intel saw slight increases.
Tesla reported $311.18 per share, down 5.77%, and its total market value returned to below $1 trillion, evaporating $61.2 billion (approximately RMB 442.4 billion) overnight.
Disney reported a price of $109.13 per share, up 6.24%, with a total market value of $197.92 billion. On November 14th local time, Disney released its Q4 and full year financial reports for the fiscal year 2024 ending on September 28th, 2024. Disney's fourth quarter revenue increased by 6.3% year-on-year to $22.57 billion, with an estimated $22.47 billion, and full year revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to $91.4 billion.
It is worth noting that the three major US stock indices collectively closed lower in the late trading session, as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell claimed that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates, which dampened investors' optimism.
Powell said, "The economy has not sent any signals that we need to urgently lower interest rates, and the economic strength we are currently seeing gives us the ability to make cautious decisions
He added that inflation is gradually approaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target, although there may be some fluctuations at times. He reiterated the theme of 'patience', 'If the data allows us to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, it seems like a wise move.'
According to the FedWatch tool of Zhishang Institute, although traders are still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting, the probability has dropped from 82.5% on Wednesday to the latest 62%.
Nvidia is heavily reduced in holdings
The latest Q3 position report submitted by Bridgewater Fund shows that as of the end of Q3, the total market value of Bridgewater's positions reached $17.7 billion, a decrease of 8% compared to the total market value of $19.2 billion at the end of Q2. Among them, the top ten holdings of Bridgewater account for 32.29% of the total market value.
Among the top ten heavily held stocks, the iShares S&P 500 Index ETF ranks first with a market value of $1.28 billion, with a slight increase of 5.77% in holdings compared to the end of the second quarter; The emerging market core ETF and Google parent company Alphabet rank second and third respectively with market capitalization of $1.02 billion and $726 million. NVIDIA, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, Meta, Microsoft, Procter&Gamble, Amazon, and Apple ranked fourth to tenth respectively.
It is worth noting that although Nvidia was Bridgewater's fourth largest holding as of the end of the third quarter, Bridgewater's holdings of Nvidia stocks decreased by 27.48% compared to the end of the second quarter.
In addition to Bridgewater, Deutsche Bank has also reduced its holdings in Nvidia. According to the latest report, Deutsche Bank increased its holdings of tech giants such as Apple, Broadcom, and Tesla in the third quarter of this year, while reducing its holdings of companies such as Nvidia, Google C-class, Merck&Co., and Bank of America.
In addition, according to the latest disclosed data, Jinglin has also significantly reduced its holdings of Nvidia. As of the end of the third quarter of this year, Jinglin Asset Management only held 31100 shares of Nvidia, while at the end of the second quarter, Nvidia also appeared in Jinglin Asset Management's top ten holdings list, holding 1.09 million shares.
There is a significant divergence in the direction of the future market
There is a significant divergence in the market regarding the future direction of Nvidia. On the one hand, asset management giants such as Bridgewater, Deutsche Bank, and Jinglin have reduced their holdings of it; On the other hand, there are still many institutions that are optimistic about its future performance.
In a recent report released by renowned Wall Street investment firm Melius Research, investors should continue to hold onto Nvidia, as the company's next-generation Blackwell GPU will be a watershed moment.
Melius Managing Director Ben Reitzes has raised Nvidia's target stock price to $185, with approximately 26% upside from the current level. Reitzes believes that Nvidia is approaching the "iPhone moment" for Apple, and selling Nvidia now is like selling Apple stock after the release of the first generation iPhone.
The report suggests that Nvidia's earnings per share may exceed $5 by 2027. Reitzes has raised its revenue and profit expectations for Nvidia from 2025 to 2027. At such a profit level, it believes that Nvidia's valuation looks very attractive. In addition, Oppenheimer has raised the target price for Nvidia from $150 to $175.
Those who hold opposing views have doubts about Nvidia's prospects. Terry Smith, a fund manager hailed by British media as the "Buffett of Britain," believes that Nvidia lacks a good track record of predictable profit streams and high capital returns. Smith said that Nvidia's high profit margins may be difficult to sustain.
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