Nearly four weeks after Hamas militants launched a terrorist attack on Israel, people are increasingly concerned that this sudden Israeli-Palestinian conflict will affect the security strategy that the United States has been focusing on for years, gradually shifting its strategic focus to the Indo Pacific region, and pulling the United States back to its traditional hot spot - the Middle East.
Antony J. Blinken, the Secretary of State of the United States, is currently visiting the Middle East. While urging Israel to agree to a "humanitarian moratorium", he is trying to prevent the war from spreading into a large-scale war in the Middle East. This is Antony Blinken's third trip to the Middle East since Hamas launched an armed attack. Before President Joe Biden visited Israel last month, Antony Blinken stayed in the Middle East for six days.
A new poll this week shows that the majority of Americans are deeply concerned that the United States will be embroiled in conflict. The poll released by Quinnipiac University on Thursday stated that the vast majority of voters (84%) are very concerned (43%) or somewhat concerned (41%) that the United States will be embroiled in military conflicts in the Middle East.
For several weeks, the US military in the region has been attacked almost daily, with the exception of two aircraft carrier strike groups. In recent weeks, the United States has sent thousands of additional troops to the region. In addition, the US news website Axios reported, citing information provided by US military officials, that thousands of troops stationed in other regions of the world have also been informed that they may be sent to the Middle East.
The layout of the United States in the Middle East before the war
From the Quadripartite Security Dialogue (Quad) to the Australian British American Tripartite Security Partnership (AUKUS), the United States has been committed to addressing China's challenges through multilateral cooperation in recent years, and this strategy is also applicable to the Middle East. Last July, the United States, India, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates held their first leaders' summit on jointly building the "India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor", announcing the establishment of the Middle East version of the "Four Party Security Mechanism" called I2U2.
In the new security dialogue, Israel is located at a crossroads, with the eastern corridor crossing India and the Arab Gulf countries, while the northern region connects the Gulf countries with Europe through Jordan and Israel. This plan can alleviate geopolitical tensions between Middle Eastern countries and Israel, while also challenging China's influence in West Asia and the Middle East.
A former senior Israeli official who directly participated in the early discussions told the digital news website Axios, "No one spoke up, but this project has been related to China since the first day.
However, the sudden attack by Hamas brought this game of winning with one move to a sudden halt.
The foundation of the I2U2 quadrilateral security mechanism is believed to be built on the Abraham Agreement signed between Israel and Arab countries such as the United Arab Emirates in 2020. The Abraham Agreement reached through the mediation of the United States initiated a diplomatic process to normalize bilateral relations between Israel and Arab countries. Israel established diplomatic relations with five Arab countries, namely Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. Given that Arab countries have been pressuring Israel by refusing to establish diplomatic relations, the agreement has also sparked dissatisfaction among Palestinians, criticizing it for putting their nation-building agenda aside.
Since the conflict between Israel and Kazakhstan, large-scale anti Israel protests have erupted in the Middle East region, putting pressure on Arab member countries such as Morocco and the United Arab Emirates under the Abraham Agreement. Although most countries in the Middle East are not democratic, leaders in power cannot ignore the feelings of the people, "Deina Abdelkader, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Lowell, told VOA. Unfortunately, the leaders of our allies in the region are now powerless to respond to the emotions of the people towards the Israeli Arab conflict.
However, on the other hand, there are also signs that the significant progress made by the United States in the region has not been completely wasted due to the conflict between Israel and Kazakhstan. In recent months, Israel has been negotiating with Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Arab world. White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters last week that Saudi Arabia has assured the Biden administration that they still hope to reach an agreement to normalize relations with Israel after the end of the Gaza war.
Anthony Ruggiero, a senior researcher at the Defense for Democracy Foundation in Washington, D.C., pointed out that even before October 7th, these issues were not easy to solve. However, Saudi Arabia has expressed its desire to resume negotiations between the United States and Israel. We will see what will happen in a month or two, or three months, to see if the normalization negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are back on track, "the former senior US official responsible for nuclear weapons sanctions said in an interview with VOA
The official in charge of foreign affairs in the United Arab Emirates recently stated that the Abraham Accord was not threatened due to the Israeli-Kazakh war. The agreement is our future, "Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi, Chairman of the Defense, Interior, and Foreign Affairs Committee of the UAE National Assembly, said in a public event on Tuesday that this is not an agreement between governments, but a" platform for changing the region ".
The United States may never have truly withdrawn from the Middle East
At its peak, the United States had as many as 100000 and 160000 troops stationed in Afghanistan and Iraq, respectively. However, according to the US Department of Defense in June this year, the total number of US troops stationed in multiple locations in the Middle East was only over 30000.
Since Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israel, the United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East. According to reports on the number of troops stationed in different countries in the Middle East, the US news website Axios reports that the US currently has up to 45000 troops stationed in the region.
John Calabrese, a professor at American University and director of the Middle East Asia program at the Washington based think tank Institute for Middle East Studies, said that "people's views - and perhaps wishes - have long differed from reality when it comes to reducing America's military presence in the Middle East." He told VOA that although the US military had a large presence in Iraq, But that was what he called an "unnatural peak," and "the US military did not 'leave' the region.
This Middle East and Asia expert acknowledges that the United States has indeed overlooked the issues of Israel and Palestine in recent years. He said, "The Israeli Palestinian issue has not received much serious attention, but its premise is that people believe that local conditions are not yet 'mature' for serious peacemaking efforts.
For former senior White House official and Defense for Democracy Foundation's Rujero, although politicians sometimes say that we should focus on this or that region, the United States, as a global power, no matter how its focus shifts from one country to another, the reality is that the United States is always there, always with its interests, allies, and partners.
The United States is a global power, and with it comes a responsibility towards all these regions, "he said.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit Japan, South Korea and India next week after his trip to the Middle East. The U.S. State Department said Thursday that this trip shows that the United States is still "highly concerned" about the Indo Pacific region.
The Secretary of State's visit to the region demonstrates our enduring commitment and concern for the Indian Pacific region, "said Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific at the US State Department
China sees opportunities in the Middle East
Last week, the influence of the United States in the Middle East seemed to be challenged as never before. On October 27th, the United Nations passed a resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian issue with 120 votes in favor, without mentioning Hamas. However, some of the strongest allies who have been with the United States for decades have not voted against it, including Britain, France, Germany, and Japan.
This is the darkest day for the United Nations and humanity, "said Gilad Erdan, Israel's representative to the United Nations, after the resolution was passed. He even questioned whether the purpose of this resolution was to restrain Israel's hands and feet. He said, "The only way to destroy Hamas is to eradicate them. Why don't you hold Hamas accountable
China will take on the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council this month, responsible for arranging the Council's agenda. Chinese Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, has stated that the situation between Palestine and Israel is the top agenda item of this month's Security Council, and the top priority is to promote a "ceasefire and end the war".
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated on Friday (November 3) during a phone call with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal that China will "promptly introduce resolutions that will help alleviate the current crisis and safeguard the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.

Beijing has seen an opportunity in this crisis to distinguish itself from Western support for Israel, "Middle East expert Camille Lons wrote on the website of the European Commission on Foreign Relations on Friday. She said that the international divisions triggered by the current crisis will only fuel China's claim that the Western led global order needs to be reshaped, and China has been trying to shape itself as a different leader on the international stage in recent years.
The United States' Middle East policy is believed to be largely based on firm support for Israel. If the United Nations vote last week highlighted the challenges faced by the United States on this issue, another piece of news in Chinese official media on the same day may shake another cornerstone of US Central Eastern and even global geopolitics in another field: the petrodollar.
Last Friday, while international attention was highly focused on the Middle East conflict, China Petroleum International Co., Ltd. purchased a ship of crude oil through a digital wallet opened at the Bank of Communications, marking the first time China has used digital renminbi in cross-border RMB settlement of oil and gas trade.
After the end of the gold standard in the 1970s, all oil transactions in Middle Eastern countries began to be settled in US dollars. One of the main reasons why the US dollar has long been the world's largest currency is widely believed to dominate global oil trade. The completion of this transaction may ultimately bypass the existing international payment system led by the United States for oil transactions between China and Middle Eastern countries.
Compared to the tens of thousands of US troops stationed in the region, while China's influence is rapidly increasing, it does not have a traditional military presence. However, China is the largest trading partner of many countries, with trade volume more than twice that of the United States. According to official data from China, the trade volume between China and Middle Eastern countries reached $507.152 billion in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%. However, according to statistics from the Office of the United States Trade Representative, the total trade volume of goods and services between the United States and the Middle East in 2022 was about $212 billion, and direct investment in the region also slightly decreased (0.8%) compared to the previous year.
The world no longer relies solely on military power, so China has been able to occupy a dominant position in the international economy, "said Professor Abdul Kader of the University of Massachusetts at Lowell.