Yesterday's A-share market
On August 28th, the three major indexes of A-shares fluctuated and differentiated. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.31%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.05%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 0.23%. The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 499.1 billion yuan, of which 496.6 billion yuan was in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, a decrease of 14.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Over 3400 stocks in both markets rose. In terms of sector theme, housing inspection and Baijiu sectors showed weak performance, bank and auto stocks declined, ST sector experienced afternoon changes, small metal, robot and childcare services sectors were active, and duty-free shops and retail sectors rose.
Overnight external trading
The three major stock indexes in New York fell on the 28th. As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 159.08 points from the previous trading day, closing at 41091.42 points, a decrease of 0.39%; The S&P 500 index fell 33.62 points to close at 5592.18, a decrease of 0.60%; The Nasdaq fell 198.79 points to close at 17556.03 points, a decrease of 1.12%. Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 3.57%, Ideal Auto falling over 16%, and Xiaopeng Motors falling 9%.
The three major European stock indexes fluctuated on the 28th. As of the close of the day, the FTSE 100 index in the UK closed at 8343.85 points, down 1.61 points or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The CAC40 index of the Paris stock market closed at 7577.67 points, up 11.89 points or 0.16% from the previous trading day; The DAX index of the Frankfurt stock market in Germany closed at 18782.29 points, up 100.48 points or 0.54% from the previous trading day.
International oil prices fell on the 28th. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.01, closing at $74.52 per barrel, a decrease of 1.34%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for October delivery fell 90 cents to close at $78.65 per barrel, a decrease of 1.13%.
Heavy News
① Air China and China Southern Airlines both receive their first C919 aircraft, with institutions stating that the industry chain is expected to benefit
According to CCTV News, on August 28th at 19:00, Air China and China Southern Airlines will simultaneously receive the first C919 aircraft at the Pudong base of COMAC's final assembly and manufacturing center, marking the beginning of a new stage of multi-user operation for the C919 aircraft.
According to First Financial, Air China and China Southern Airlines each plan to receive 3 C919 aircraft this year, while China Eastern Airlines plans to receive 6 C919 aircraft. Jinpeng Airlines, a subsidiary of Hainan Airlines, will also receive its first C919 aircraft in the fourth quarter of this year, which means that COMAC's C919 production this year will exceed 10, doubling the production of 3 aircraft last year.
Guojin Securities stated that the ramp up of C919 production capacity is expected to accelerate, and the large aircraft industry chain is expected to fully benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to the targets related to the C919 aircraft structure industry chain from the dimensions of market space, performance elasticity, core competitiveness, and long-term growth space.
② The National Data Administration's system layout cultivates and strengthens the data industry, and institutions claim that the industry is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of over 20%
According to Xinhua News Agency, Liu Liehong, Director of the National Data Administration, stated on August 28th that data, as a new type of production factor, has deeply integrated into various fields of the economy and society. Accelerating the construction of a digital economy with data as a key element cannot be separated from the strong support of the data industry. The National Data Administration will systematically layout and cultivate the data industry from three aspects: optimizing industrial layout, cultivating diversified business entities, and strengthening policy guarantees.
Huachuang Securities stated that the development effect of the data industry is significant, and the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to remain above 20% in the next few years. At present, China has initially formed a relatively complete data industry chain, covering the entire lifecycle of "acquisition, storage, calculation, management, and utilization". Suggest focusing on opportunities in the data element sector.
③ China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: In July, the domestic market shipped 24.204 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%
According to the "CAICT" WeChat official account of the Chinese Academy of Information Technology, the data of the Chinese Academy of Information Technology shows that in July 2024, the number of mobile phones shipped in the domestic market will be 24.204 million, with a year-on-year growth of 30.5%. Among them, 20.654 million 5G mobile phones, with a year-on-year growth of 37.2%, accounting for 85.3% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period. From January to July 2024, the domestic market shipped 171 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%. Among them, there were 145 million 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, accounting for 84.8% of the same period's mobile phone shipments.
④ China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: From August 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars in the market reached 1.305 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5%
According to the "Passenger Association Branch" WeChat official account, the Passenger Association Association released data that from August 1 to 25, the retail sales of passenger cars in the market were 1.305 million, an increase of 5% over the same period last August and 9% over the same period last month; From August 1st to 25th, the retail sales of passenger cars in the new energy market reached 718000 units, an increase of 48% compared to the same period last August and an increase of 18% compared to the same period last month.
⑤ New column of "Announcement of treasury bond bond trading in the open market" on the official website of the People's Bank of China
According to the 21st Century Economic Report, the reporter noticed that on August 28, the official website of the People's Bank of China added a new column called "Announcement of treasury bond Trading in the Open Market", but the content is still blank. On August 9 not long ago, the Central Bank said in the "Main Ideas for Monetary Policy in the Next Stage" of the Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy in the Second Quarter of 2024, that it is necessary to enrich the monetary policy toolbox, enrich and improve the way of base currency delivery, and gradually increase the trading of treasury bond in the open market operation of the Central Bank.
⑥ Huawei launches Xuanji Sensing System, and will release a new smart wearable product equipped with the system in September
According to Securities Times, on August 28th, the "Xuanji Perception System" for wearable devices was officially released at the Huawei Xuanji Perception System and Wearable Innovation Technology Conference. The system can determine a user's emotional state based on their heart rate, and a new smart wearable product equipped with this system will be released in September.
Minsheng Securities stated that with the continuous emergence of technological innovation and the gradual increase in the penetration rate of wearable devices, the shipment volume of wearable devices will see growth in the future. IDC predicts that global wearable device shipments will reach 645 million units by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% from 2022 to 2027.
⑦ Nvidia's revenue outlook falls short of the most optimistic expectations, with production of new Blackwell chips facing obstacles
On August 28th local time, Nvidia released its performance and outlook, but its revenue forecast fell short of some of the most optimistic expectations, causing concerns that its explosive gains were declining. After the market closed, Nvidia fell more than 8%.
The company announced on Wednesday that its third quarter revenue will reach approximately $32.5 billion. Although analysts have an average expectation of $31.9 billion, the high-end range is expected to reach $37.9 billion. The company also stated that its highly anticipated new Blackwell chip encountered difficulties in the production process, causing the stock to fall after hours. This outlook may weaken the artificial intelligence craze that has propelled Nvidia to become the world's second most valuable company by market capitalization. This chip manufacturer is the main beneficiary of companies rushing to upgrade their data centers to handle artificial intelligence software, and its sales forecast has become a barometer of the spending boom. Prior to the announcement, there were concerns about issues with Nvidia's new Blackwell chip design. Nvidia acknowledges that there are issues in production and is undergoing reforms to improve production yield, which refers to the proportion of qualified products. Despite analysts continuously raising their expectations, Nvidia's performance has exceeded Wall Street's expectations for several consecutive quarters. However, most of the growth comes from a small group of customers. About 40% of Nvidia's revenue comes from large data center operators, such as Google and Meta under Alphabet. These companies are investing billions of dollars in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Institutional perspective
According to a research report by Open Source Securities, in the long term, the supply cycle of copper is the capital expenditure cycle of copper mines, while in the short term, the supply cycle of copper is the replenishment cycle of copper concentrate, the raw material of copper smelters. It is not easy to economically reduce production or replenish copper concentrate raw materials for copper smelting enterprises through low TC methods, and it depends more on the enterprise's own willingness. It is expected that copper concentrate prices will continue to rise in the medium term, and copper smelters will start a new round of replenishment cycle in the next two years. At that time, we will truly see the contraction of primary refined copper supply and the upward trend of copper prices driven by the recovery of demand. With the continuous increase in global electricity demand and the gradual decline in future long-term supply increment, the copper supply and demand pattern is gradually improving, and copper prices are expected to enter a new round of upward cycle.
According to a research report by Oriental Securities, the fundamental profit margin of lithium batteries has been exhausted, and the valuation has bottomed out and recovered. There is a contraction signal on the supply side, and the fundamentals have bottomed out and reversed, showing an upward trend. Positive factors on the quantity/price/valuation side are worth paying attention to, such as the upward trend in production on the quantity side, the stabilization and even partial rebound on the price side after bottoming out, and the positive impact of exchanging old for new on the valuation side. Under the combined effect of multiple factors, Oriental Securities believes that opportunities outweigh risks, and the recovery of EPS and valuation in the domestic lithium battery sector is expected to become a trend.
Focus Announcement
BYD: Net profit of 13.63 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 24%
Ideal Auto: Q2 revenue reached 31.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%
Xilis: The backbone team plans to increase their shareholding by 100-200 million yuan within 6 months
Aoya Corporation: The purchase quantity of computing power servers has been reduced from 128 to 8
3. Lianban National Inspection Group: The proportion of revenue from existing housing inspection and appraisal business is relatively small
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(Disclaimer: The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate based on this and bear the risks themselves.)