After the stock market closed on July 18th, TSMC released an unexpected financial report. In the second quarter, the company achieved sales of 673.51 billion Taiwanese dollars (approximately 20.82 billion US dollars), higher than analysts' previous sales of 658.14 billion Taiwanese dollars, a year-on-year increase of 40%, and a month on month increase of 13.7%; Net profit reached NT $247.8 billion (approximately US $7.66 billion), also higher than analysts' estimate of NT $235 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 36%, and a slight month on month increase of nearly 10%.
The company's gross profit margin has also increased compared to the first quarter, reaching 53.2%, exceeding analysts' estimate of 52.6%. TSMC Chairman and President Wei Zhe Jia predicts that the company's full year gross profit margin for 2024 will remain stable at around 53%.
According to official guidance, TSMC's third quarter revenue is expected to be between $22.4 billion and $23.2 billion (compared to $17.3 billion in the same period last year), with a gross profit margin between 53.5% and 55.5%.
In the past year, the global semiconductor industry has experienced a downward cycle of inventory adjustments, coupled with the production capacity ramp up of the 3-nanometer chip process, TSMC's gross profit margin has also shown a significant decline, falling from 60.4% in 2022 to 54.4% in 2023.
Starting from this year, a series of favorable factors have emerged to improve its gross profit margin.
Firstly, the 3-nanometer process that dragged down the company's gross profit margin last year has finally gained widespread application. With the large-scale launch of 3-nanometer chips on new Apple and Android devices, this advanced process chip (7-nanometer and below) has officially entered its landing year. Companies such as Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, and AMD have already divided the production capacity of TSMC's 3-nanometer series processes, and other manufacturers are also queuing up to bid for related orders, some of which are even scheduled until 2026.
According to the Taiwan, China media DigitalTimes, the capacity utilization rate of TSMC's 5nm and 3nm processes has reached 100% at present. In order to respond to the demand of various manufacturers to accelerate production expansion, the monthly capacity of 3nm will gradually increase from 100000 pieces to about 125000 pieces in the second half of the year.
TSMC stated in its Q2 financial report that the demand for 3-nanometer processes is now "very strong" and has contributed 15% of the total wafer revenue in Q2, compared to 9% in Q1 and only 6% for the entire year last year. 5 nanometers and 7 nanometers account for 35% and 17%, respectively. At present, advanced process chips account for about 67% of its total wafer revenue, while mature process chips (28 nanometers and above) account for about 23%.
The company's 2 nanometer has also been put on the agenda. According to Wei Zhejia, the customer's response to the 2-nanometer technology is "very positive". According to the company's previous schedule, the 2-nanometer process is expected to start mass production in the second half of 2025.
Another positive factor comes from price increases. In June of this year, TSMC announced a price increase for its foundry services, mainly targeting advanced process technologies, with 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer being key targets. Among them, AI products at 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer will increase prices by 5% -10%, non AI products will increase prices by up to 5%, and advanced packaging prices will increase by 15% -20%.
The price increase quickly gained the support of major customers. Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun mentioned in his commentary on TSMC's price increase that considering TSMC's contribution to the world and the technology industry, the company's value is severely underestimated. Not only Nvidia, but also most customers such as Apple have agreed to TSMC's increase in OEM prices in exchange for reliable chip supply. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and other institutions unanimously believe that price increases will help improve TSMC's gross profit margin.
At present, the semiconductor market has not completely emerged from the downward cycle and is showing a trend of differentiation in demand recovery. Among downstream terminal devices, the demand for AI servers and AI smartphones is currently the two main growth areas in the market, with the demand for AI servers, which are being snapped up in the computing power market, being the most vigorous. Traditional smartphones, PCs, and automotive electronics currently show no obvious signs of growth, and demand remains sluggish.
Techinghts, an international market research firm, has observed that the overall demand for the global semiconductor market is slowly recovering from a downturn, and the current wave of growth is mainly due to the opportunities brought by the explosion of generative AI.
Wei Zhejia also stated that due to the strong market demand, TSMC's current production capacity planning for AI products and services, including advanced process technology and advanced packaging technology (CoWoS), is still unable to keep up with changes and is far from achieving a "supply-demand balance". According to his estimation, it is expected that the company will not be able to achieve the goal of supply-demand balance until a certain quarter of 2026.
With the boost of the above series of favorable factors, TSMC's stock price has risen strongly this month. On the 8th, TSMC's market value once exceeded $1 trillion, and its stock price has risen nearly 66% since the beginning of this year.
But before today's financial report was released, TSMC's stock price fell nearly 8% at one point, and then rebounded. As of press time, the company's pre-market stock price has risen by 3.9%.