Chip giant Micron Technology suddenly explodes!
On Thursday local time, before the US stock market opened, the stock price of storage chip leader Micron Technology plummeted significantly due to its financial performance guidance being significantly lower than market expectations. As of the time of the Chinese journalist's press release, the company's stock price had fallen more than 15% before the US stock market opened. In addition, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has downgraded Micron Technology's rating to neutral, previously a buy rating.
Earlier, the company disclosed its first quarter results for the fiscal year 2025 ending on November 28. Although revenue for the quarter met expectations and data center revenue increased by over 400% year-on-year, Micron's revenue guidance for the second quarter was significantly lower than market expectations. The company expects revenue for the second quarter to be $7.9 billion, nearly $1 billion less than analysts' estimates, mainly due to sluggish demand for smartphones and PCs.
Analysts have pointed out that Micron Technology is the largest computer storage chip manufacturer in the United States and one of the world's top three memory manufacturers. Its latest financial performance guidance may affect investors' confidence in other similar companies around the world.
Performance guidance falls short of expectations
After the US stock market closed on Wednesday, the global storage chip industry received an important financial report.
Micron Technology expects its sales for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending in February, to be approximately $7.9 billion, significantly lower than analysts' previous expectations of $8.99 billion; After deducting certain items, the earnings per share will not exceed $1.53, far below the market expectation of $1.92.
Despite seeing strong orders for components used in artificial intelligence computing, Micron still faces sluggish demand from smartphone and PC manufacturers - two markets that account for the majority of its chip production. As of the close on Wednesday, Micron's stock price had risen 22% this year, but after the financial report was released, the stock plummeted nearly 18% after the US stock market closed on Wednesday.
According to analysis, Micron Technology's financial report was mainly dragged down by the decline in the price of DRAM memory chips used in mobile phones and personal computers. Due to weak consumer demand and oversupply, the memory market remains sluggish, contributing to the majority of Micron Technology's revenue (75% of the first quarter revenue).
According to financial report data, in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 (as of November 28), Micron Technology's total revenue was $8.71 billion, a year-on-year increase of 84.3% and a month on month increase of 12.4%, which is in line with market expectations; Under Non GAAP accounting principles, the net profit was $2.04 billion, an increase of 52% compared to the previous period; Earnings per share of $1.79, better than the loss of $0.95 per share in the same period last year and $1.18 per share in the previous quarter, and also higher than the average analyst expectation of $1.76.
From a business perspective, the revenue of the Computing and Networking division reached a quarterly high of $4.4 billion, accounting for over 50% of the total revenue. This was mainly due to the growth in demand for cloud server DRAM and HBM revenue; The revenue of the mobile business department was $1.5 billion, a decrease of 19% compared to the previous period. This was due to the focus of mobile customers on destocking, and therefore the United States adjusted its supply strategy to meet the demand of data centers; The revenue of the embedded business department was $1.1 billion, a decrease of 10% compared to the previous period, as automotive, industrial, and consumer customers continued to reduce inventory; The revenue of the storage business department was $1.7 billion, a 3% increase compared to the previous quarter, reaching a new quarterly high, mainly driven by the record high revenue of SSD in data centers.
Sanjay Mehrotra, President and CEO of Micron Technology, stated in the financial statement that the company's revenue reached a new high in the first quarter, with data center revenue exceeding 50% of total revenue for the first time. Data center revenue increased by over 400% year-on-year and 40% month on month, reaching a new high. However, Micron Technology also stated that the surge in data center revenue is not enough to offset the weak orders from consumer facing device manufacturers. In this field, customers have been dealing with accumulated inventory.
Sanjay Mehrotra said, "The PC update cycle is gradually unfolding, and we expect PC sales growth to remain flat in 2024, slightly lower than previous expectations... As time goes on, we remain optimistic about the popularity of artificial intelligence personal computers Mehrotra said, "Although the consumer oriented market is performing weakly in the short term, it is expected that the company will resume growth in the second half of fiscal year 2025. We continue to gain market share in the most profitable and strategically important market areas, and are in a very advantageous position to create huge value through AI driven growth. We expect the company's revenue to continue to hit new highs, profit margins to improve significantly, and positive free cash flow to be achieved in fiscal year 2025
Three legged confrontation
Micron Technology, along with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, is known as one of the world's top three memory manufacturers. According to TrendForce, in the two main memory markets of DRAM and NAND, Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology rank first, second, and third in market share, respectively.
Bloomberg pointed out that for a long time, storage chip manufacturers have been accustomed to the prosperity and depression of the industry, and they now hope that the demand for a new product called high bandwidth memory (HBM) can continue. This technology is highly valued by artificial intelligence computing system manufacturers, enabling Micron and other memory companies to obtain higher prices despite its complex production and deployment.
Currently, Micron Technology has increased its global market size estimate for HBM chips from $25 billion to over $30 billion by 2025. Micron Technology predicts that by 2028, the total target market size for HBM chips will quadruple from $16 billion in 2024 to over $100 billion by 2030.
And investors are also betting on Micron Technology's strategic advantage in the high bandwidth memory chip market (HBM), which is commonly used in AI chips to improve performance and reduce power consumption of artificial intelligence systems. For example, Micron Technology's HBM products are being integrated into Nvidia's H200 artificial intelligence chip and the newly developed powerful Blackwell system, making Micron one of the few companies in the world directly involved in the rapidly growing AI market.
Other types of memory are still subject to significant price fluctuations, depending on the balance of supply and demand. But the three main memory companies - Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics - are more strict in increasing new production capacity. Micron stated that this means that the issue of excess inventory will not be as painful as in the past.
In the DRAM market, as the hottest category in DRAM, HBM is highly favored by AI chips for high-performance storage. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology have respectively developed and sold 12 HBM3E (the fifth generation HBM product) products, which are currently the most powerful products in the field. The competition among the three companies is fierce, and Hynix has a first mover advantage and is now in a leading position. SK Hynix announced in September this year that it would be the first to mass produce the HBM3E 12 layer product and supply it to Nvidia in bulk. According to market research firm Counterpoint, SK Hynix currently holds the majority of HBM's market share.
Samsung Electronics lags behind its competitor SK Hynix in this regard, but is actively catching up. It stated in its third quarter financial report as of September this year that its HBM3E was in mass production and on sale. However, at that time, HBM3E accounted for less than 10% of HBM's revenue, and sales will increase in the fourth quarter.
Micron Technology revealed during its earnings conference that its HBM3E has successfully supplied multiple customers and is expanding into more markets, with the potential for further increase in market share.