[Romer, Nobel laureate in economics: The Federal Reserve will further raise interest rates only if it is "crazy"] Is the Federal Reserve going to raise interest rates again in the case of a double Dutch company? This time may really be different! Hello everyone, today I want to talk to you about the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. You might say, isn't it normal for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates? That's right, but this time it may really be different! Let's take a look at why. Firstly, let's review history. For the past few decades, the Federal Reserve has been regulating the economy by raising and lowering interest rates. However, the current situation may have changed. Just like we wear autumn pants in winter and short sleeves in summer, when the seasons change, our clothes also need to change accordingly. Recently, Professor Paul Romer, a Nobel laureate in economics, expressed his views. He believes that the Federal Reserve should start cutting interest rates instead of raising them. Professor Romer said, "The Federal Reserve is crazy to raise interest rates at this time. I think they should start cutting interest rates and explain to people - we will reach the 2% target within a year - that we need to be prepared for the bond market yield curve to flatten." What he meant was that the US economy is already growing fast enough and inflation is also slowing, so the Fed and the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates instead of continuing to raise them. CICC also published a research report supporting Professor Romer's observation points. It is believed that the GDP of the United States in the third quarter was 4.9% year-on-year, and economic growth has significantly rebounded compared to the first half of the year. Overall, the significant contribution of inventory rebound indicates that restocking may have quietly begun, and the final sales after removing inventory are also strong, indicating that endogenous demand in the economy is still steadily expanding. At first glance, private consumption expenditure increased significantly in the third quarter, indicating that residents' consumption ability is still strong, which is inconsistent with the popular view that excess savings have been depleted in the market. So, why did the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Actually, this is to control inflation. When the economy overheats and prices rise, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates to cool it down. Yes, the current situation is that economic growth has slowed down, and inflation is also slowing down. Raising interest rates at this point would be a bit of an "over treatment". Just like you caught a cold, the doctor prescribed antibiotics for you. Antibiotics can treat colds, but if you overuse antibiotics, it may kill beneficial bacteria in the body and be detrimental to the body. Similarly, if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates excessively, it may make the economy even more sluggish. So, what will the Federal Reserve do? According to CICC's research report, they believe that there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will continue to suspend interest rate hikes next week. This decision may bring a sigh of relief to the market, as it has already been under significant pressure. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, it may lead to adverse effects such as stock market decline and bond market volatility. Suspending interest rate hikes can send a signal to the market that the Federal Reserve is not trying to push the economy into a desperate situation. Of course, we cannot completely rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. After all, the issue of inflation still needs attention. However, if the Federal Reserve really decides to raise interest rates, they will definitely be very cautious in considering various factors. Moreover, they will also realize that excessive treatment may bring greater risks in a slowing economy. In short, the Fed's interest rate hike has always been the focus of market attention. Although we cannot determine the future direction, we can look for clues from history and expert perspectives. Regardless of the outcome, we will closely monitor and inform everyone as soon as possible!