The world economy faces tough conditions, including food insecurity and inflation caused by the crisis in Ukraine. To address these challenges, multilateral cooperation is essential. However, the major summits held this year have reflected the "double fragility" of cooperation mechanisms.
At the G20 summit held in September, the parties agreed on a joint statement amid deepening estrangement between Japan, the US and Europe, and China and Russia, seemingly maintaining cooperation.
Professor Rong ITO of Japan's National Defense University pointed out: "Although the summit adopted a joint statement, if India's voice is further strengthened, it may create a new estrangement." India's aim is to shake up the US-European dominated economic order. The Indian side believes that if the US, Europe and China and Russia compete to bring India into their camp, India's strategic value will be enhanced and it will be easier to achieve its own interests."
The summit's joint statement expressed concern about food security in developing countries, but India, the world's largest rice exporter, still restricted rice exports. Protectionism, which gives priority to one's own country, has led to deepening antagonism among countries. Multi-polarization may lead to increased centrifugal forces in the international community, and cooperation becomes superficial.
Another problem is the declining cohesion of the G7. Hiroshi Watanabe, director general of Japan's International Currency Institute and a former finance minister involved in many international negotiations, sees the G7's role as a "steering committee that advises on global issues." But the problem is that the United States, as the core of the G7, is more inclined to prioritize its own interests. Today, the economic gap in the United States has widened, social divisions have intensified, and opposition parties have intensified. Fruitless political battles raise the risk of default.
What is the future of the multilateral cooperation mechanism? Masayuki Tasho, a distinguished professor at the International University of Japan, said, The selection forum, as it is called by international political scholars, is becoming increasingly active. Countries choose international frameworks according to their own needs. There will also be moves to build a new framework in the future. After the Cold War, a world based on the unified rules of democracy and the market economy was expected to emerge. The trend of convergence and separation may further increase."
The function of "global governance" to solve common global problems may be weakened. There is a risk that problems with food supply and inflation will worsen. The impact is likely to be concentrated in developing countries.
Today, the rise of the global South is bringing about structural changes that require a response based on this status quo. Developed countries also have many problems, such as the fact that developing countries are behind in terms of vaccine supply priority in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. "The Global South is deeply dissatisfied that its views are not adequately reflected," ITO said. To stabilize the international order, developed countries must change their posture."
It is the responsibility and obligation of major countries to jointly address global issues even if their positions are different. Countries in a leading position should consciously recognize the position they represent and push forward the reconstruction cooperation mechanism.
How should the multilateral cooperation framework be rebuilt? It also means thinking about how the international community should respond to the U.S. unipolar domination.
A world in which there is no hegemonic power is called "G0," and pessimism about the world falling into disorder is deeply rooted. In his book The End of the American World Order, international political scientist Amitav Acharya predicted that a pluralistic world is coming.
In the face of global issues such as climate change and infectious diseases, civic groups, international organizations, and private companies are playing an increasingly important role in addition to developed, emerging, and developing countries. Further knock-on effects could occur if diverse actors deepen cooperation under various policies. The world structure is complex, but it is gradually shifting to a "G+" order in which the views of non-European and American countries are more reflected.