Source: Global Times
The Economist, October 22, article, original title: Welcome to the era of "reclusive consumers". In some ways, the COVID-19 pandemic is just a small episode. After the lifting of the lockdown, at least one change is ongoing: the consumption habits of wealthy countries have clearly and possibly permanently changed - welcome to the era of the recluse.
Before the COVID-19 epidemic, the share of consumer spending for services rose steadily. As society becomes wealthier, people's demand for luxury experiences, healthcare, and financial planning becomes stronger. But in 2020, due to the lockdown, hotel accommodation and hairdressing service expenses collapsed. People spend more time at home, with a surge in demand for related products, competing to purchase computer equipment and fitness bicycles.
Three years later, the share of expenditure on services remains lower than before the pandemic. Consumers in the rich world are spending about $600 billion less on services than expected in 2019. Especially, people's interest in leisure activities outside has decreased, including hotels and entertainment services. The saved money is used to purchase goods, from durable consumer goods such as chairs and refrigerators to clothing, food, and alcohol.
In some countries, the habit of seclusion is not deeply ingrained. For example, in New Zealand and South Korea, service expenditures are in line with pre pandemic trends. However, in many places, seclusion continues to be prevalent. In the Czech Republic, the share of the service industry in the national economy was about 3 percentage points lower than before the pandemic due to the heavy impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. The United States is also similar. Many Japanese restaurants have even reduced their bookings by 50%.
At first glance, these data do not match the facts. Isn't it more difficult than ever to book a good restaurant? Isn't the hotel filled with travelers, causing prices to skyrocket? However, the real reason for congestion is not excessive demand, but limited supply.
Nowadays, fewer people are willing to work in the hotel industry - in the United States, the total employment in this industry is lower than at the end of 2019. The devastation of the pandemic means that many hotels and restaurants that were supposed to open in 2020 and 2021 have never opened. The number of hotels in the UK is currently around 10000, which has not increased since 2019.
Why does reclusive behavior persist? The first possible reason is that some people are still afraid of infection, whether it is COVID-19 or other viruses. In affluent places, people are abandoning crowded public transportation and choosing their own private vehicles. In the UK, the use of public transportation has greatly decreased. People also seem to be less enthusiastic about intimate contact services. In the United States, hair and personal care expenses were 20% lower than before the pandemic, while cosmetics, perfume and nail care expenses increased by a quarter.
The second reason is related to changes in working modes. According to Akzoe and colleagues working at King's College London, in many affluent parts of the world, people now work from home about one day a week. This reduces the service demand for purchasing behavior in the office, including lunch, while increasing the demand for DIY products. Last year, Italians' expenditure on glassware, cutlery, and household utensils increased by 34% compared to 2019.
The third reason is related to values, and a pandemic may make people more like hermits. According to official data from the United States, last year people slept about 11 minutes more than in 2019. They have also reduced spending on club entertainment and other social activities that require membership, and increased spending on solo activities such as gardening, reading magazines, and walking pets. It seems that the biggest legacy of the COVID-19 epidemic seems to be that it has pulled people further. (Translated by Shu Fan)