Without a new infusion of funds from Congress, the system of American funding for Ukrainian personnel salaries and government spending in Kiev is expected to be unsustainable next month, according to Ukrainian and American government officials.
With the U.S. government shutdown looming, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on Sept. 24 that Ukraine would face severe economic and political shocks in a counteroffensive this fall if Congress cuts off aid to Kiev.
The United States and other donors effectively pay the salaries of 150,000 Ukrainian civil servants and more than 500,000 teachers, professors, and school employees, as well as cover a range of Ukrainian government expenses, from health care to housing subsidies.
Aides to Republican lawmakers said Blinken called to ask Republican lawmakers to include funding for Ukraine in a stopgap funding bill designed to keep the U.S. government open.
Six days later, Congress passed an appropriations bill that did not include aid to Ukraine. Now, officials in both Washington and Kiev are watching how the expected reduction in aid will affect Ukraine's ability to keep its government functioning and its economy stable.
The U.S. Congress is divided over whether to provide economic aid to Ukraine, with some Republicans arguing that U.S. money should support the U.S. economy. With lawmakers concerned about corruption in Ukraine, it is unclear to what extent aid to Ukraine will resume even after the U.S. government shutdown.
"I don't think there's an alternative - U.S. funding is critical to Ukraine's survival," said Bill Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who is now vice president of the U.S. Institute of Peace. The institute is funded by the U.S. Congress.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with world leaders to coordinate support for Ukraine, including the leaders of the U.K., Canada, Italy, Japan, Poland and Romania, as well as the French foreign minister and NATO's secretary general.
"As President Biden has made clear, under no circumstances can we allow U.S. support for Ukraine to be interrupted," said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. "Time is not our friend."
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, most U.S. lawmakers and citizens have focused on hardware support, including tanks, helicopters, advanced missile systems, and millions of rounds of ammunition, all of which the United States is uniquely positioned to provide. Yet when Mr. Blinken visited Kiev in September, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal began their meeting by thanking him for little-known non-military budget aid the United States had provided to Ukraine through the World Bank.
"All salaries paid in the Ukrainian public sector over the past year, including social welfare and other programs, were paid with this money," Mr. Shmegar said.
The World Bank's "Peace" program -- formally known as Public Expenditures for Administrative Capacity Endurance -- has provided Ukraine with a total of $23.4 billion, Of that, $20.2 billion came from the United States and $2 billion from the United Kingdom. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a German research group, American aid to Ukraine since Russia's massive invasion has totaled $72.8 billion, including humanitarian aid and military assistance.


Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said he was confident the Senate would pass further aid to Ukraine this year.

pay for almost everything
The Biden administration says its goal is to strengthen Ukraine financially and militarily.
"They will always be a neighbor of Russia; Their economy needs to be able to sustain a security machine that can deter future Russian aggression, "State Department spokesman Matt Miller said on Monday.
Republican lawmakers who oppose any funding for Ukraine, however, see the flow of federal money to a foreign government as a sign that domestic priorities are not being put first.
"We are paying for almost everything in Ukraine," Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene said on X.
A Ukrainian official said the country's finance ministry expects the shutdown battle could lead to delays in funding for Ukraine, which has the resources to meet its budget needs in October but after November could face decisions about which services or salaries to cut or whether to try to borrow.
If payments to the Ukrainian government were to stop, the official said, it could spark discontent in the country and could put political pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky, who would face stronger criticism from opposition factions.
A U.S. official said the U.S. Agency for International Development would process an October transfer of $1.15 billion through the World Bank program if Ukraine proved it had properly used the previous transfer. The outlook for future payments is unclear.
Another Ukrainian official said that after October, the Kiev government may use other funds to get through November and December earlier than originally planned, but that without new funds, the outlook for 2024 would become more bleak.


Passengers prepare to board a train from Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, to Kiev on Monday.

The European Union is a bigger donor of civilian aid than the United States, officials said, and major economies such as Japan are likely to step up their aid if the United States does not continue. Still, the European Union is unlikely to match the financial and military assistance provided by the United States, which is seen as indicative of the West's ability to continue supporting the war.
The economic situation in Ukraine is grim, with the 2022 invasion estimated to have cost Ukraine 30 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), increasing military spending while reducing tax revenues.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest report that continued external support for Ukraine's finances was essential. Moody's rates Ukraine's sovereign debt at "Ca" - the second-highest rating for countries with highly speculative debt that are close to or likely to default. If external funding dwindles, Kiev may well be forced to go back to selling bonds, including to the central bank, essentially printing money and potentially driving up inflation.
Some Republicans have expressed concern about the extent of corruption in Ukraine. The Biden administration worked to ensure that funds were not misappropriated, understanding that the issue was about the health of Ukraine's economy and its ability to raise money on Capitol Hill. "We have seen positive actions in Ukraine to address corruption, including positive actions in recent weeks," State Department spokesman Stephen Miller said Monday.


A monument in Kiev is illuminated in the colors of the Ukrainian flag on Sunday.