Huitong Finance APP News - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter on Thursday, October 26th. As the release time approaches, the following are economists and researchers' predictions for the upcoming growth data. Economists predict that the annualized growth rate of the United States in the third quarter of 2023 will reach 4.3%, compared to the previously reported annualized growth rate of 2.1% in the second quarter. US consumers will become the main driving force for growth.
We expect GDP to grow by 3.3% month on month, driven by still optimistic private consumption and structural investment from Danish banks. Although economic growth remains stronger than our current expectations, we still anticipate a slowdown in the winter economy, especially in the context of tighter financial conditions, and believe that the Federal Reserve will no longer raise interest rates. The activity data of ABN Amro Bank remains strong, with the highlight being GDP in the third quarter. Driven by strong consumer spending, we expect this growth rate to reach around 4%. Leisure and tourism spending is particularly strong, and residential investment should also make a positive contribution along with government spending.
Deutsche Bank's pre reading data is expected to show a real GDP growth of 5.2% in the third quarter, higher than the 2.1% in the second quarter. Royal Bank of Canada's GDP grew by 5% year-on-year in the third quarter, mainly due to the expansion of consumer spending, net trade volume, and an increase in inventory. Deutsche Bank expects an annualized growth rate of 5.2% for this quarter, which is almost surprising to everyone. On an annualized basis, the National Bank of Canada estimates that GDP may increase by 4.8%. If Imperial Bank of Canada's inventory fails to provide us with built-in resistance, our 3.9% forecast may even have some upward risks.
So, there is not much logic behind the discussion about the Fed's suspension at the upcoming meeting, so it may just be another 'skip', with further interest rate hikes in December. The real GDP growth of Societe Generale in the third quarter of 2023 should be close to 5%, which is clearly very strong. Wells Fargo Bank predicts an annualized growth rate of 5.0% in real GDP in the third quarter. If achieved, economic growth will increase by 3.0% year-on-year, about half a percentage point higher than the average level before the epidemic.
Citibank expects a strong 4.7% year-on-year growth in real GDP based on expenditure in the third quarter, with the growth mainly driven by consumption. The strong growth in consumption of goods and services will reflect a weak rebound in service spending in the second quarter, as overall demand remains strong and commodity spending will rebound again. This will be consistent with the significant rebound in retail sales data in recent months. Strong economic activity has also expanded beyond consumption, and recent strong industrial production and durable goods orders may lead to steady growth in most components of commercial equipment investment.
This article originates from fx678 Huitong Network