International oil prices have risen sharply on tensions in the Middle East. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures rose more than 5% in the day, is now trading at $86.15 / barrel. Brent crude also rose more than 5 percent during the day to trade at $87.74 a barrel.
However, due to the sharp fall in international oil prices during the long holiday, domestic crude oil varieties opened sharply lower in the morning, SC crude oil and fuel oil fell more than 7%, and low sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell more than 6%.

In addition to crude oil, gold also rose to a certain extent on the international market. London gold was up more than 1% at $1,850.375 an ounce, while COMEX gold was as high as 1.32% at $1,869.5 an ounce and up 1% at $1,863.7 at press time.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were heading lower. At the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.61%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 index futures were both down more than 0.7%.
The Israeli stock market, which closed the previous day, fell nearly 7 percent.

More than 5,600 Palestinians and Israelis have been killed in the Middle East
According to CCTV reports, on October 7 local time, more than 20 Palestinian armed men entered Israel and clashed with Israeli troops. The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has issued a statement announcing a new round of military action against Israel. At around 7 a.m. local time, Hamas began firing rockets intensively into Israel, and its fighters entered Israel under the cover of rockets to launch military operations. Hamas says it has fired at least 5,000 rockets into Israel.
Israel then launched air strikes on the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared the country a "state of war."
According to Xinhua News Agency, the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has killed more than 700 Israelis. The Palestinian health department in the Gaza Strip issued a statement that night, saying that the Israeli army has attacked the Gaza Strip has killed at least 413 people and injured 2,300. According to statistics released by Israeli medical authorities that night, more than 2,200 Israelis have been injured in the conflict. The Israeli government's press office said on social media that more than 100 hostages had been taken into the Gaza Strip.
The sharp escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has shocked the world, and people are more worried about whether this conflict will further expand in the future. In response, the United States and other Western countries unilaterally blamed Hamas, claiming that Israel "has the right to defend itself" and announced that it would provide billions of dollars in weapons aid to Israel. Most countries have called for an immediate ceasefire, arguing that the conflict is the result of prolonged non-compliance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said on the 8th that the fundamental way out of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is to implement the "two-state solution" and establish an independent Palestinian state.
How does the international oil price affect?
Because the conflict was on the doorstep of the world's major oil producing and exporting regions, the Fourth Middle East war in 1973 had led to global inflation. Therefore, the market is also more concerned about the impact on the crude oil market.
While crude prices are currently spiking, analysts see this as a short-term shock and likely temporary.
Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at Commonwealth Bank, said. He argues that the conflict has not directly put any major source of oil supply at risk. Neither side is a major oil player. Israel has two refineries with a combined capacity of nearly 3 million barrels per day, but the country has "virtually no crude oil and condensate production." Likewise, the Palestinian territories do not produce oil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a public speech on Sunday that the Saudi - and Russia-led alliance of oil producers was prepared to be precautionary and wait months for guidance on "real numbers" before adjusting policy in the face of price volatility in the crude market.
When asked if Opec + has a response to address the latest escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the energy minister stressed that "we have dealt with the trough of global challenges, including the coronavirus." I believe the best thing I can say is that the cohesion of Opec + should not be challenged. We've seen the worst of it and I don't think we need to worry about anything scary at all."
What do Chinese institutions think?
As for future oil prices, Zhong Meiyan, an analyst at Everbright Futures, said marginal support from Saudi-led production cuts was weakening, with Saudi Arabia expressing willingness to increase oil production to facilitate a deal with Israel following talks between the United States and Saudi Arabia on a potential large security pact. At the same time, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict intensified again on October 7-8, and Israel declared a state of war. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict in the fourth quarter will bring back supply vulnerabilities, but the specific situation is not yet effectively assessed. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, crude oil will show a range of fluctuations in the price center of decline, of which WTI crude oil is expected to be in the range of 65-85 US dollars/barrel, and crude oil is expected to be in the range of 70-90 US dollars/barrel. At the same time, we should pay attention to the geopolitical premium brought by the trend of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices, and the impact of macroeconomic trends on demand.
Meierya futures said that in general, the holiday oil price fell more than 10 US dollars, the short-term release of a certain risk, interest rate hike concerns, oil producers may increase production in the future of the negative, the increase in inventories, gasoline demand weakened the oil price at a high pressure, the market worries that the Federal Reserve will need to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period of time to curb inflation. It is expected that after the holiday, the geopolitical events brought by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or short-term reduce the risk of oil prices continue to fall, short-term in the context of oil producers did not suspend production, supply and demand pattern is relatively stable, more need to be vigilant about the pressure brought by the macro level. On the first trading day after the holiday, it is expected that the domestic SC will fall by about 6%-8%, and the early put will gradually profit from the market, waiting for further driving.
Guosen Futures said that during the National Day holiday, international oil prices fell sharply. But the number of active oil and gas RIGS in the United States continues to decline. Data released by Baker Hughes, the oilfield services arm of General Electric Co., showed that the number of Wells drilled online in the United States in the week ended Oct. 6 was 497, the lowest since February 2022 and five fewer than the previous week. This is 105 fewer than the same period last year. Saudi Arabia, Russia additional voluntary cut crude oil supply policy extended to the end of this year, global crude oil supply is still tight. Israel has declared a state of war, raising concerns that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could escalate further. Pay attention to the support situation of WTI crude oil in the United States near $80 / barrel, oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after the holiday, and it is suggested that more ideas can be operated in shock.
State Investment Essence futures said that the holiday international oil prices once fell sharply, mainly due to the US bond yields and the US dollar, the US Saudi relations are expected to ease, EIA weekly gasoline meter needs to weaken and other multiple factors dragged down, high oil prices under the macro and micro level of negative feedback have been fulfilled. Palestine and Israel are not major oil producers, the direct impact of the conflict on supply and demand is limited, but the market will reassess the geopolitical premium, mainly reflected in the US sanctions on Iran may be re-tightened and the uncertainty of the US-Saudi relations easing, oil prices will welcome short-term support. Subsequent statements and developments may dominate this week's oil price volatility, it is recommended to wait and see.