The global weight loss drug market is currently divided into two parts. Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic, as well as Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro, are the most sought after and effective drugs in the market.
However, both companies are unable to provide drugs to more consumers due to production capacity issues. But this has also made the market for generic weight-loss drugs hot. The industry predicts that by 2030, the market size of GLP generic drugs will reach 100 billion US dollars.
The global patent for Saxenda, the injection of Liraglutide, the main component of Novo Nordisk's previous generation product, will expire in some countries this year. It is also one of the first GLP-1 drugs to lose patent protection. Last February, it had already lost patent protection in the Chinese market.
Compared to Wegovy and Ozempic, Saxenda is now somewhat like "tears of the times" (referring to outdated things), but its efficacy is not enough to make up for in quantity. The influx of generic drug companies will create a strong supply of generic drugs and lower prices, thereby expanding the market.
Among them, Biocon, a leading generic drug company in India, has obtained a license to replicate Saxenda in the UK. The CEO of the company, Siddharth Mittal, confidently stated that his team is ensuring Biocon's leading position in the generic pharmaceutical market. The company has also submitted applications to regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe to replicate the drug Liraglutide.
The future is bright
Weight loss pills have already created record breaking profits for Novo Nordisk and Lilly, which has caught the attention of other pharmaceutical companies, and generic drugs are the key way for them to openly compete for market share.
Biocon is a typical example of this. The company stated that it is building infrastructure to seize strategic opportunities centered around GLP drugs. Liraglutide products are just the beginning, waiting for the expiration of patents for more effective Smegglutide and Tezepamide products. The generic drug market is bound to ignite a greater wave of competition.
Mittal stated that weight loss drugs will be a very attractive market for the next 20 years, and the UK's approval of Biocon's production of generic Liraglutide demonstrates Biocon's ability to seize this opportunity.
There are also leaders in the Chinese market. Last year, the Liraglutide biosimilar developed by East China Pharmaceutical was approved for the treatment of obesity. Hangzhou Jiuyuan Genetic Engineering Co., Ltd. announced last week that it is applying to sell Megglutide generic drugs in China to control the blood sugar of patients with type 2 diabetes.
Jiuyuan Genetic Engineering also pointed out that it cannot commercialize drugs before the patent expires unless a court with jurisdiction determines that the patent is invalid. According to Novo Nordisk's annual report, the patent for its semaglutide drug in China will expire in 2026, while the patent for the European and American markets will expire from 2031 to 2032.
Jiuyuan Gene Factory also emphasized that the Chinese market potential of Smegglutide is enormous, with its scale increasing from 2.5 billion RMB in 2022 to 43.9 billion RMB in 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of up to 33%.