Source: CCTV Finance
According to Japanese media reports on October 24th, the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that Japan's nominal gross domestic product will be lower than Germany this year, dropping from the third largest economy in the world to the fourth.
Relying on the geographical advantages of Tokyo Bay, Tokyo Port has formed Japan's largest industrial zone and occupies an important position in Japan's total economic output. According to the latest forecast from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Japan's nominal gross domestic product is expected to be around $4.2 trillion this year, lower than Germany's $4.4 trillion, and Japan will decline from the world's third largest economy to fourth place. This will be the first time that the rankings of Japan and Germany have reversed since Japan's total economic output surpassed that of West Germany in 1968.
One of the important factors that triggered a reversal in the ranking of Japan and Germany is the depreciation of the Japanese yen. The total economic output of Japan was nearly $5 trillion in 2000, 2.5 times that of Germany. As the exchange rate of the Japanese yen drops from 105 yen to around 150 yen, the total economic output of Japan has significantly shrunk after being converted into US dollars, not only lower than Japan 23 years ago, but also facing being overtaken by Germany. In addition, the relatively high inflation rate in Germany is also one of the short-term factors.
On the other hand, in the long run, Japan's sluggish economic growth is also an important factor leading to a decline in its ranking. If calculated separately in domestic currency, it is expected that Japan's total economic output will only increase by 10% this year compared to 2000, while Germany will increase by 90%.
In response to the International Monetary Fund's prediction that the ranking of Japan and Germany will reverse, the Japanese Minister of Economy and Industry stated at a press conference yesterday that Japan's weak economic growth is a fact that innovation is needed to promote economic development and increase income. In addition, the International Monetary Fund's forecast further shows that Japan's total economic output will be surpassed by India by 2026, dropping from fourth to fifth in the world. Japanese experts have pointed out that with the decline of economic size, Japan may become a country lacking a sense of existence in the medium to long term.