The PC industry is facing a rebirth opportunity. In the next decade, new AI PCs will replace traditional PCs, with a market value of trillions of dollars, "NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun said recently.
After sharing AI PC usage cases at the Innovation 2023 conference, Intel recently announced the launch of the AI PC acceleration program, which is expected to achieve over 100 million AI applications by 2025. Intel stated that the AI PC Acceleration Program connects Intel's resources to independent hardware vendors (IHVs) and independent software vendors (ISVs), including AI toolchain, co development, hardware, design resources, technical expertise, and joint sales opportunities.
Several industry insiders stated in an interview with China Business Daily that by integrating AI technology with PCs, users can enjoy a more intelligent and efficient computing experience. The rise of AI PC will also drive innovation and competition in the PC market. Manufacturers will continue to explore and develop new AI applications to meet the constantly changing needs of users. But to be fully recognized by the market, technology integration and cost pricing are both issues that need to be faced.
PC market bottoms out and needs to rebound
The PC market has been constrained by sluggish demand from consumers and businesses in terms of procurement, and shipments have been declining for several consecutive quarters. The global PC shipment volume in the first quarter of 2023 was 56.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, which is the lowest quarterly PC shipment performance in the world in nearly a decade and the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit decline in the PC market. Entering the second quarter, global PC shipments decreased by 15% year-on-year. According to the latest statistics released by market research firm IDC, global personal computer (PC) shipments continued to decline in the third quarter of 2023, reaching 68.2 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%.
In terms of specific shipment volume and ranking, most PC manufacturers still experienced a significant decline in this quarter. Among them, Lenovo's shipment volume was 16 million units, ranking first, with a market share of 23.5%, but a year-on-year decrease of 5%; HP ranks second with a shipment volume of 13.5 million units and a market share of 19.8%; Dell shipped 11.8 million units in the third place, with a market share of 17.3%, a decrease of 14.3%; The fourth place is Apple, with 7.2 million units shipped, a market share of 10.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%; The fifth place is Asus, which shipped 4.9 million units with a market share of 7.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. In this report, HP's shipment volume increased by 6.4%, making it the only manufacturer to achieve growth in the third quarter.
However, according to statistical data, although global personal computer (PC) shipments decreased year-on-year in the third quarter, they increased by 11% compared to the first and second quarters, and the downward trend has eased.
Counterpoint Research also emphasized in its research report that the PC market has bottomed out and expects PC shipments to gradually recover in the coming months with the launch of multiple new products.
Gartner Research Director Mikako Kitagawa stated that the PC market is gradually recovering, and there is evidence that the decline in the personal computer market has finally bottomed out. The seasonal demand in the education market boosted shipments in the third quarter, although corporate PC demand remained weak, offsetting some of the growth. Suppliers have also made continuous progress in reducing PC inventory, and as long as holiday sales do not collapse, inventory is expected to return to normal by the end of 2023.
Several industry insiders hold similar views. Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that this may indicate some signs of recovery in the PC market. However, this does not necessarily mean a recovery of the entire market, as issues such as cooling demand and supply imbalance still exist.
Angel investor and artificial intelligence expert Guo Tao stated that the PC market demand is gradually recovering and there are signs of market recovery. However, it is worth noting that this growth may not be comprehensive, but mainly concentrated in some areas such as education, healthcare, and government.
AI PC Becomes "Industry Savior"
At a time of widespread sadness in the industry, the emergence of AI PC has become a "life-saving straw" in the eyes of PC manufacturers.
Intel CEO Pat Kissinger bluntly stated, "We believe that AI PC will be a key turning point in the PC market in the coming years, and every product we offer will integrate AI
HP CEO Loures said in an interview, "I have been working in this industry for decades and have never seen such an opportunity. AI is disrupting the PC business, and HP will face various challenges in this wave
Yang Yuanqing, Chairman and CEO of Lenovo Group, said, "AIGC will promote the updating and upgrading of intelligent terminals. Because everyone wants to enjoy the benefits of AIGC without compromising privacy, and does not want to put all their information on the cloud, the safest place is on personal devices or servers in their homes." Whether from the perspective of accessibility or security, The combination of PC and AI will be an irreversible trend.
It is reported that PC manufacturers such as Lenovo, HP, Dell, and Acer are building AI PC laptops and designing various AI application software to allow users to experience the changes brought by AI in their daily work and life.
According to Sigmantell's prediction, 2024 will be the first year for large-scale AI PC shipments. It is expected that from 2024 to 2027, the global AI PC shipment volume will start to grow rapidly, reaching approximately 13 million, 53 million, 110 million, and 150 million units. In the next five years, the global PC industry will steadily enter the AI era.
Guotai Junan Securities pointed out in its research report that AI PC is a deep integration of AI technology and PC, which will be equipped with higher computing power processors and integrate multimodal algorithms to fundamentally change and reshape the PC experience. From a functional perspective, AI PCs are not only smoother and more efficient (such as opening the lid for power on, voice assistant, intelligent temperature control, etc.), but also more intelligent in terms of personalized experience and proactive services (such as intelligent display, intelligent protection, content creation, etc.). As a productivity tool, AI PC is expected to become a hybrid of terminal, edge computing and cloud technology to meet the needs of new generative AI workloads.
Wang Peng believes that if PC manufacturers such as Lenovo, HP, and Acer all lay out AI PC tracks, it may have a certain impact on the PC market. These manufacturers may launch more innovative and competitive products, thereby stimulating market demand. At the same time, this may also change the competitive landscape of the market, putting greater competitive pressure on traditional PC manufacturers.
Zhang Xiaorong, President of the Deep Science and Technology Research Institute, believes that PC manufacturers' layout in the AI PC field will have a positive impact on the PC market. The application of AI technology can improve the intelligence level of computing devices, making them more personalized and intelligent. By integrating AI technology with PC, users can enjoy a more intelligent and efficient computing experience. The rise of AI PC will also drive innovation and competition in the PC market. Manufacturers will continue to explore and develop new AI applications to meet the constantly changing needs of users. This will provide consumers with more choices and encourage other manufacturers to follow up to maintain market competitiveness.