Recently, macroeconomic data in the United States has been improving, labor market growth has also performed well, and inflation is decreasing. In the mid-1990s, then Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan wisely chose to pause interest rate hikes in the face of such above trend economic growth. The danger of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates while economic growth is above trend is that the trend is not yet clear. When using growth forecasts for monetary policy choices now, caution should be exercised. The key lies in the true growth rate, which no one can accurately predict. Many conversations among Federal Reserve officials now speak of caution.