In the context of increasing political polarization in the United States, the term of House Speaker McCarthy came to an abrupt end in the ninth month, and the divided United States Congress may be plunged into greater chaos.
On October 3, local time, the US House of Representatives voted on the motion to remove the Republican Speaker of the House McCarthy, and finally passed the motion to remove McCarthy with 216 votes in favor and 210 votes against, and Representative Patrick McHenry (Patrick McHenry) served as the interim Speaker or interim acting Speaker.
It should be noted that the US Congress passed a temporary funding bill on September 30, temporarily avoiding another shutdown of the US government, but it has intensified the internal divisions of the Republican Party. Mr McCarthy had been under pressure from ultra-conservative Republicans to slash federal spending and tighten border controls. They have said they will not accept any stopgap funding bill and that Congress must agree on all 12 funding programs, even threatening to remove McCarthy from office if a stopgap funding bill is passed.
In the end, McCarthy stepped down faster than expected, and McCarthy became the first sitting speaker of the House of Representatives to be voted out of office. The last time the House voted to remove a speaker was in 1910, but then-Speaker Joseph Cannon survived the test.
The trouble has already been laid
Behind McCarthy's ouster, the seeds of unrest had already been planted.
On January 3, 2023, the opening day of the new U.S. Congress created the first time in 100 years that it failed to elect a speaker of the House of Representatives in the first round of voting. Three days later, it was the first time in 164 years that more than 10 rounds of voting were needed to elect the speaker of the House of Representatives. On January 7, the 15th round of voting for the speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Republican Speaker candidate McCarthy received 216 votes, reaching more than half of the votes, and was elected Speaker of the 118th Congress of the United States.
McCarthy took a total of 15 votes in 5 days to reach a compromise with the party's extreme conservatives and was elected speaker, and the price behind it was not cheap. Crucially, McCarthy agreed in January to lower the threshold for a motion to remove the speaker to a single representative, rather than the previously required majority support of a party, setting the stage for McCarthy's ouster nine months later.
The temporary funding bill passed by the US Congress over the weekend became the "last straw" to crush McCarthy. On Sept. 30, the U.S. House of Representatives voted 335-91 to pass a short-term spending bill to fund the government for 45 days, including natural disaster aid requested by the White House. Subsequently, with only a few hours left before the US government shutdown, the US Senate passed the bill by 88 to 9 votes on the evening of the 30th, avoiding a government shutdown.
The short-term spending bill averted a shutdown for now, but it exacerbated divisions within the Republican Party. In order to get the short-term spending bill approved, House Speaker McCarthy, a Republican, was forced to rely on Democrats and "dump" the Republican Party's extreme conservatives, which did not address conservative demands for deep cuts in federal government spending and stronger border controls. Extreme conservatives in the Republican Party have repeatedly threatened to reject any stopgap funding bill if Congress fails to reach agreement on these issues. If the final stopgap funding bill does not meet their demands, McCarthy will be ousted as speaker.
The combination of factors that led to McCarthy's eventual ouster added a new footnote to the polarization of American politics.
Beware of more turbulence ahead
After McCarthy's ouster, the divided US Congress could be plunged into even greater chaos.
On the evening of October 3, local time, former Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy said at a press conference that he would not run for re-election as Speaker of the House. House Republicans will meet on Wednesday to vote for a new House speaker. The selection of a new speaker of the House is likely to face another challenging process, given the hard-line stance of ultra-conservatives in the Republican Party.
Moody's, the only major credit rating agency that currently gives the United States its highest rating, warned in late September that its confidence in the United States was wavering because of concerns about government "governance."
Unfortunately, there is no obvious successor who can unite the Republican Party, and this power vacuum also occurs when the United States will face another shutdown on November 17. Although the stopgap funding bill temporarily averted the US government shutdown crisis, it only postponed the problem until November, laying a greater danger for the future.
At present, the market has not been too affected by the political turmoil in the United States, and the double killing of US stocks and bonds on October 3 was more affected by the rising expectation of tightening by the Federal Reserve. In the US job market data, the Federal Reserve officials continue to show the "eagle claws" in the background, the 3 US 10-year Treasury bond yield once rose above 4.8%, the 30-year Treasury bond yield once touched 4.925%, both refreshed the highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively fell more than 1%, with the Dow down 1.29%, erasing its gains for the year, the S&P 500 down 1.37% and the Nasdaq down 1.87%.
If the U.S. political turmoil further intensifies in the future, the risk of the U.S. government shutdown in mid-November will be greater, the U.S. economy may also be affected, and the last AAA rating of the United States may be difficult to protect, when the market may suffer a greater impact.