David Rosenberg, a top American economist and CEO of Rosenberg Research, is increasingly concerned that a sudden recession may hit the US economy.
It is reported that his concern stems from the February employment report, which showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.9%. Rosenberg believes that this data poses a risk to the claim of a soft landing.
In his latest report, he said, "The current unemployment rate has risen by 0.5 percentage points from the cyclical low point in January 2023, which disrupts the notion of a soft landing because once the unemployment rate rises so much from the low point, an unexpected recession will arrive."
Specifically, Rosenberg's interpretation of "a 0.5 percentage point increase in unemployment rate" is based on the Sahm Rule. Once this rule is triggered, the economy is in the first few months of recession.
The Sam's rule is an indicator used to predict economic recession, based on changes in unemployment rates. Specifically, when the three-month average of the unemployment rate rises to 0.50 percentage points above the lowest point in the past 12 months, it is considered a possible signal of economic recession. This rule was proposed by economist Claudia Sahm.
However, it should be noted that the Sam's rule is only triggered when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points or more higher than last year's low, rather than the absolute unemployment rate. This value is currently 0.27 percentage points, so the unemployment rate must continue to rise in order to trigger the recession indicator.
On the other hand, the rise in unemployment rate is not the only factor that Rosenberg is concerned about.
By analyzing the employment report, Rosenberg stated that the negative correction for December and January employment reports was 167000 people, indicating that the US job market has not grown.
"Contrary to popular belief, the labor market is shrinking," he wrote.
He also emphasized that despite strong recruitment momentum in healthcare, government, and catering industries, net layoffs in technology and banking are still accelerating.
"At the same time, temporary employment data, one of the best leading indicators in the job market, showed a decrease of 15000 jobs last month," Rosenberg said, adding another concern to the February employment report.
In summary, Rosenberg continues to take a defensive stance on the US economy and stock market.
"I still can't chase this thing," he said of the soaring stock market. "I remember when I was a child, the turtle won a game."