"With travelers free to fly, pent-up demand for air travel quickly rebounded and surged. In July, global passenger demand has recovered to 96% of 2019 levels. Domestic market demand in Asia Pacific is very strong compared to other regions and has exceeded 2019 levels. China's decision to restart travel at the beginning of this year has led to an encouraging recovery in international travel." At the 2023 North Bund International Shipping Forum held on September 22, Willie Walsh, Director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), praised the pace of China's civil aviation industry coming out of the impact of the epidemic in his keynote speech.

Aircraft manufacturers are also optimistic that China's civil aviation industry will continue to unleash its development potential in the coming period. Following the positive forecast of the Chinese market made by the European Airbus Company (hereinafter referred to as "Airbus") in July this year, the US aircraft manufacturer Boeing Civil Aircraft Group (hereinafter referred to as "Boeing") also released the latest forecast data in China on September 20, making a very positive forecast for the development of China's civil aviation market in the next two decades.
Strong domestic demand
"As air travel recovers, China will take delivery of one-fifth of global aircraft over the next 20 years. At the same time, China's domestic aviation market will grow to be the largest in the world later in the forecast period, driving demand for 6,470 single-aisle aircraft, represented by the Boeing 737 MAX family." Darren Hulst, vice president of marketing for Boeing civil Aviation, told media, including China Times, at the China Market outlook conference held recently.
China will need 8,560 new aircraft over the next 20 years, driven by economic development well above the global average and growth in domestic air travel, according to Boeing's latest forecast. According to Boeing's Current Civil Aviation Market Outlook, a long-term forecast for demand for civil aircraft and related services, China's civil aviation fleet will more than double to nearly 9,600 aircraft by 2042.
In Boeing's 2023 Civil Aviation Market Outlook, a more specific forecast of the demand for the Chinese market from 2023 to 2042 is made, with more than 8,500 new aircraft in demand, in addition to 6,470 single-aisle aircraft. Boeing believes China's civil aviation industry needs another 1,550 widebody aircraft to support its growing international route network.
Compared with the forecast made by Airbus in July this year, the two companies' forecasts actually have some differences. For example, Airbus believes that China will need a total of 9440 new aircraft in the next two decades, nearly a thousand more than Boeing's forecast data, according to the previous Chinese civil aviation annual delivery rate of new aircraft, equivalent to about two years of delivery scale gap.
According to current projections, China will need an average of more than 400 new aircraft a year for the next 20 years. It is also in line with previous forecasts by Airbus that China's annual deliveries of more than 400 new aircraft "may seem exaggerated, but in reality only correspond to natural growth at pre-pandemic levels."
By contrast, Boeing's forecast for total global demand over the next two decades is 42,595, compared with Airbus's 40,850 forecast.
In his view, "the number of more than 42,000 new aircraft is very close to the forecast for 2019, which means that although there are some challenges in the development of the three years 2020-2022, our confidence and forecast for the future remain unchanged." "The 42,000 + aircraft fleet includes replacement needs as well as new capacity needs, and the demand is very evenly distributed across regions."
"Whether it is the average annual GDP growth rate in the next 20 years, or the increase in the size of the middle-income population or the huge population base, these fundamentals will support the continued and steady development of China's civil aviation industry in the future." These fundamentals are actually significantly better than the international average, which also means that China's civil aviation industry will have greater development space and potential than the world." "Mr Hodaren said.
In Hodaren's view, "the development of the global civil aviation industry in the past few decades has experienced a lot of challenges, including local wars, global economic recessions, pandemics and so on. Among them, the entire civil aviation industry has shown great resilience. Speaking of China, we have repeatedly stressed that we believe that China will develop into the largest civil aviation market, and it is a very large growth market. The nature of the civil aviation industry is to connect the world, connect people and connect trade, which has a very great promotion significance for the economy."
In Boeing's view, China's civil aviation fleet growth needs over the next two decades will drive two-thirds of the aircraft deliveries in its forecast target, and the other third will be used to replace older aircraft, which is also an important path for the civil aviation industry to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction goals.
Remote market poised for growth
"From the perspective of fleet size in service, we forecast that China's fleet in service will grow to about 2.4 times its current size over the next 20 years," Hodgren said. The widebody fleet will triple in size within 20 years, while single-aisle aircraft will roughly double."
Perhaps it is enough confidence in its own widebody product market prospects, Boeing in the Chinese market widebody demand forecast is also more optimistic than Airbus. Boeing thinks China will need 1,550 wide-body aircraft for passenger service over the next two decades, while Airbus forecasts 1,420.
At present, the international market of China's civil aviation is still recovering, while the domestic market has already exceeded the pre-epidemic level. According to the industry production data released by the Civil Aviation Administration of China in mid-September, the total transportation turnover of the whole industry in August was 11.61 billion tons kilometers, an increase of 87.4% year-on-year, recovering to 100.7% in the same period in 2019, and the overall scale of air transportation has exceeded the pre-epidemic level for two consecutive months. In August, the Civil Aviation of China completed 63.964 million passengers, an increase of 98.0% over the same period in 2019, an increase of 4.5% over the same period in 2019, among which, the passenger transport scale of domestic routes increased by 11.2% over the same period in 2019, and the passenger transport scale of international routes recovered to 52.0% of the same period in 2019.
"We highly appreciate the continued policy support of the Chinese government, including the full resumption of outbound group Tours from China. These measures are very conducive to the further recovery of the industry." Speaking at the 2023 North Bund International Shipping Forum, Willie Walsh noted, "While there are some short-term challenges, IATA expects air travel demand to double by 2040, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4%. Asia Pacific, particularly China, is expected to contribute more than half of the outbound passenger growth, supported by favorable demographics and household income growth."
"Widebody machines have seen more changes over the past year. The impact of the epidemic on the civil aviation industry is particularly significant in wide-body aircraft, but after the impact of the epidemic has passed, the wide-body long-range market has also recovered very clearly, especially in the past year or so." "In the past year, the 787 has received more than 300 orders, making it the best-selling aircraft of all wide-body aircraft. "About two-thirds of the aircraft currently flying in the long-range market are Boeing widebody models, and over the last two to three years or so, Boeing has accounted for about two-thirds of all widebody orders."
"With the further opening and development of the Chinese international market, we believe that this market will have a greater demand for long-range widebody capacity, and China will also have a very significant replacement demand for existing widebody aircraft. We believe that the 787 can very well meet these two types of needs, and the 777X is also the best solution for the replacement of large widebody aircraft." "Although different factors may bring ups and downs to the market in the future, we still believe that China will become the largest single domestic market." Taking a long-term view, our belief in the value of civil aviation and the value our efficient products bring to the industry is fundamental to our confidence and optimism for the future."
Boeing turns a corner
Due to the influence of many factors, Boeing's new orders and deliveries in China after 2017 have experienced a huge decline, especially after 2019, the market is almost in a "frozen" state, a large number of new aircraft built can not be delivered to Chinese airlines, and new orders have declined to a very low level.
Even though the obstacles to the grounding and resumption of delivery of 737MAX have been completely solved from the technical and policy levels in the past two years or more, and the vast majority of the 737MAX models delivered to China have been put back into operation, the new orders and re-delivery of new aircraft are still delayed, which seems to be related to the fact that China's civil aviation is getting rid of the impact of the epidemic. The rebound in demand and the need for airlines to restart capacity growth are at odds.
But things seem to be starting to change. "Boeing has reached a new platform, a new starting point, and I believe Boeing will have a very good future in China," Liu Qing, who was newly appointed as president of Boeing China in September, told media including the China Times on September 20. "We are bound to better serve the Chinese market in the future."
"The history of the civil aviation industry has shown time and again that it is a growth industry with very strong inherent resilience. The most important reason behind this is that the civil aviation industry itself is of vital significance to the development of the global economy. If we compare the current scale of passenger transport in civil aviation with that in the 1950s, when the civil aviation industry just entered the jet age, it has increased by about 40 times. A very big driver behind this growth is the technological innovation in aircraft that allows us to have more efficient and capable aircraft on the market." Hodaren told the media, including our reporter.
For Boeing, which has been "dormant" in the Chinese market for many years, it seems to be time for the clouds to disperse. "China Times" reporter through multiple channels to understand the information shows that Boeing has recently finalized a number of new wide-body aircraft orders with a number of domestic airlines, the main model is 787-10, the latest model in the 787 series.
"The 787-10 is the largest model of the 787, and it gives airlines more seats, more revenue opportunities, lower per-seat costs, and more operational efficiency." "In the ten years of 787 service to the Chinese market, the map of the 787 route network operated by Chinese airlines shows that the 787 has not only helped Chinese airlines greatly expand their network, but also played an important role in reducing fuel consumption and carbon emissions." "Before the outbreak, China was actually the single largest market for 787 flights."
In Hodaren's view, replacing older aircraft with newer, more efficient aircraft could have important implications for the entire aviation industry in terms of carbon reduction and achieving greater sustainability. "We see a more balanced demand for new aircraft in China. Why do you say that? Previously, China's demand for new aircraft was more focused on new development, new capacity growth needs, and as our Chinese fleet expands and ages, there is a greater proportion of demand for replacement parts. The demand is more balanced, and in short, we see a market that requires continued investment in new technologies and more efficient products."