The NASDAQ 100 index, which has been experiencing two consecutive days of decline, attempted to rise again last night, closing up 1.21%. It is worth noting that tech giants such as Apple, Meta, and Amazon have released very impressive financial reports after the market, with Meta up 15.21% and Amazon up over 7%.
In addition, tonight's release of US January non farm payroll data will further validate signs of a cooling labor market.
In terms of popular ETFs, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (159659) was trading sideways at a high level throughout the day (February 2, 2024), with a slight increase in late trading premium, accompanied by increased trading volume. As of the close, the NASDAQ 100 ETF (159659) rose 2.5%, with a premium of 1.43%, closing at 1.352 yuan. The trading volume for the day exceeded 80 million yuan, approximately 140% higher than the previous day.
As of the latest, the Nasdaq 100ETF (159659) has 345 million shares, continuing to hit a new high since its listing. Since the beginning of 2024, the total share of this ETF has increased by 248 million units, with a range share growth rate of about 256%, ranking first among all ETFs tracking the NASDAQ 100 index.
Source: Wind, 2024.1.2-2024.2.2
It is worth mentioning that the management fee for NASDAQ 100ETF (159659) is 0.5% per year, which is significantly lower than the fee rate for similar products, helping to further reduce investment costs. The Nasdaq 100 ETF (159659) also has over-the-counter linked funds (Class A: 019547, Class C: 019548) available for off exchange investors to choose from.
[Industry observation: US January non farm payroll data released tonight]
The US January non-farm employment data will be released tonight at 21:30. After the "small non-farm" and initial application data, can the non-farm report further confirm signs of a cooling labor market? Economists predict that the number of new non-agricultural jobs added in January will be 180000, lower than the 216000 reported in December; The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 3.7% to 3.8%. The average month on month salary growth rate is expected to record 0.3%, which is slower than the 0.4% in December, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
After employment growth exceeded expectations in December last year, January's data may give the Federal Reserve (and investors) a clearer understanding of the potential timing of interest rate cuts.
Analysts at Bank of America wrote in a research report on Friday, "Most importantly, this report should continue to show that the labor market is cooling, but it will not show any obvious signs of weakness." This should be good news for investors.
Bill Adams, Chief Economist of Commercial Bank of America, estimates that the Federal Reserve will want to see the unemployment rate stabilize between 3.5% and 4.0%, indicating a strong labor market but not inconsistent with other historically healthy inflationary periods. So far, the labor market seems to be achieving this goal, and raising interest rates will slow down recruitment to more sustainable levels.
The process of interest rate cuts has stirred up market nerves, but some scholars believe that the trend of US stocks does not rely on interest rate cuts. Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton Business School, said, "The US stock market does not rely on the Fed's interest rate cuts, which means that even if the Fed does not cut rates significantly, the stock market may still continue to rise. I would rather see a stronger economy and better corporate profits than the Fed quickly lowering interest rates to see an economic recession."
【 Component stock information: The three giants have impressive financial reports 】
Apple: The first quarter EPS was $2.18, with analysts expecting $2.11. The first quarter revenue was $119.58 billion, with analysts expecting $117.97 billion. The first quarter product revenue was $96.46 billion, with analysts expecting $95.14 billion. In the first quarter, iPhone revenue was $69.7 billion, with analysts expecting $68.55 billion. In the first quarter, laptop Mac revenue was $7.78 billion, with analysts expecting $7.90 billion. In the first quarter, tablet and iPad revenue was $7.02 billion, with analysts expecting $7.06 billion. In the first quarter, wearable, home, and peripheral revenue was $11.95 billion, with analysts expecting $12.02 billion. In the first quarter of the fiscal year, the Greater China region received $20.82 billion, with analysts expecting $23.5 billion. The first quarter service revenue was $23.12 billion, with analysts expecting $23.37 billion. The overall operating expenses for the first quarter were $14.48 billion, with analysts expecting $14.62 billion.
Meta (Facebook): EPS for the fourth quarter was $5.33, with analysts expecting $4.91. Revenue for the fourth quarter was $40.11 billion, with analysts expecting $39.01 billion. Fourth quarter advertising revenue was $38.71 billion, with analysts expecting $37.81 billion. In the fourth quarter, the revenue of the APP family was $49.04 billion, with analysts expecting $38.16 billion. RealityLabs revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.07 billion, with analysts expecting $812.6 million. The operating profit of the APP family in the fourth quarter was 21.03 billion US dollars, with analysts expecting 19.65 billion US dollars. In the fourth quarter, the operating losses of the reality laboratory were $4.65 billion, with analysts expecting a loss of $4.1 billion. The number of daily active users in the fourth quarter is 2.11 billion, with analysts expecting 2.07 billion. The monthly active users in the fourth quarter were 3.07 billion, with analysts expecting 3.06 billion.
In addition, Meta has announced plans to repurchase another $50 billion in stocks and issue quarterly dividends for the first time. Meta announced that it will distribute quarterly cash dividends of 50 cents per share for Class A and Class B common shares starting from March. Meta CFO Susan Lee stated that dividend payouts are actually a good supplement to existing stock repurchase plans. Susan stated that dividend payouts will not change the amount of capital return, nor will they change the way the total amount of capital return is determined. It is expected that stock buybacks will continue to be the main way for companies to return capital to shareholders, but distributing dividends makes this plan more balanced and adds some flexibility to the way future capital returns will be achieved.
Amazon: EPS for the fourth quarter is $1.00, with analysts expecting $0.78. Net sales for the fourth quarter were $169.96 billion, with analysts expecting $166.21 billion. Net sales in North America for the fourth quarter were $105.51 billion, with analysts expecting $102.88 billion. The net sales of physical stores in the fourth quarter were $5.15 billion, with analysts expecting $5.23 billion. Net sales of AWS in the fourth quarter were $24.2 billion, with analysts expecting $24.22 billion. AWS net sales excluding foreign exchange factors increased by 13% in the fourth quarter, with analysts expecting an increase of 11.8%. The operating profit for the fourth quarter was 13.21 billion US dollars, with analysts expecting 10.49 billion US dollars. Expected net sales for the first quarter are $138-143.5 billion, with analysts expecting $142.1 billion. Expected operating profit for the first quarter is 8-12 billion US dollars, with analysts expecting 9.12 billion US dollars.
"Global Technology Leader Wind Vane" - NASDAQ 100ETF (159659)
As one of the representative market indexes in the US market, the NASDAQ index is also called the "US tech index". The NASDAQ 100 index is based on the NASDAQ index and refined with essence. It selects 100 non-financial companies as constituent stocks, and calculates the index according to the corresponding index compilation rules on the basis of market capitalization weighting, reflecting the overall market of NASDAQ or the trend of US high-tech.
Since the beginning of 2014 until January 26, 2024, the Nasdaq 100 index has accumulated a 385% increase, significantly outperforming major US stock indexes such as the Nasdaq Composite Index and the S&P 500. At the same time, it has significantly outperformed other core global market indices such as the FTSE 100 in the UK, DAX in Germany, and CAC40 in France.
Source: Wind, statistical interval from January 1, 2014 to April 26, 2024. The Nasdaq 100 Index was released on February 1, 1985, and its past performance does not represent future performance.
Risk warning: Funds carry risks and investment should be cautious. The above viewpoints, views, and ideas are based on the current situation and may change in the future. We do not make any substantial guarantees or commitments regarding the authenticity, completeness, and accuracy of the opinions or information cited from external institutions such as securities companies. The NASDAQ 100ETF can invest in overseas markets. In addition to bearing general investment risks such as market volatility risks similar to domestic securities investment funds, this fund also faces unique risks such as exchange rate risks arising from investing in overseas markets. The past performance of a fund does not represent its future performance, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the fund's performance. Investors should carefully read fund legal documents such as the Fund Contract, Prospectus, and Product Information Summary, fully understand the risk return characteristics of fund products, and based on understanding the product situation and listening to the appropriate opinions of sales institutions, make independent decisions on fund investment according to their own risk tolerance, investment period, and investment goals, and choose suitable fund products.
The performance of the Nasdaq 100 index in the past five years has been 37.96% (2019), 47.58% (2020), 26.63% (2021), -32.97% (2022), and 53.81% (2023), respectively. The NASDAQ 100 Index is compiled and published by NASDAQ Stock Market Corporation. The index compilation party will take all necessary measures to ensure the accuracy of the index, but does not make any guarantees, nor is it responsible to anyone for any errors in the index. The past performance of the index does not represent its future performance, nor does it constitute a guarantee of fund investment returns or any investment advice.