Based on the 2023 natural year iron ore production data, Rio Tinto continues to hold the position of the world's largest iron ore producer.
On January 30th, Vale released its 2023 production and sales report, which showed that its iron ore production reached 321.2 million tons last year, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, exceeding the production guidance target of 315 million tons. The copper production reached 326600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29%, slightly higher than the production guidance target of 325000 tons; The nickel production was 164900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%.
Vale's production in 2023
Chart source: Vale
Last year, Vale's iron ore production exceeded expectations, mainly due to the improved asset reliability of Brazil's S11D production area, as well as the stable performance of Itabira and Vargem Grande operating areas and the increase in third-party procurement volume.
On a quarterly basis, Vale's iron ore production reached 89.4 million tons in the fourth quarter of last year, an increase of 11% year-on-year, and reached its highest monthly production since 2018 in December; Copper production increased by 50% year-on-year, also reaching the highest level since 2018.
The significant increase in copper production in Vale last year was mainly due to the successful completion of Salobo 3 plant and the entry of Sossego into higher grade areas. Among them, the production of the Salobo comprehensive operation area increased by 87% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.
Although Vale's iron ore production has increased beyond expectations, there is still a gap of about 3.2% compared to Rio Tinto, which has narrowed compared to the previous year.
According to data previously released by Rio Tinto, its Pilbara iron ore production was 331.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%, located in the high range of the previous guidance target (320-335 million tons); The shipment volume was 331.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, continuing to remain the world's largest iron ore producer. It has been sitting on this throne for five consecutive years since 2019.
Rio Tinto Group's 2023 Production
Chart source: Rio Tinto Group
BHP Billiton, one of the "three major mines," still has a significant gap in iron ore production compared to the two aforementioned companies. Its iron ore production in 2023 was 295 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 12%, which is about 8.16% lower than that of Vale.
From the 2024 iron ore production guidance target, Rio Tinto remains the world's number one.
Rio Tinto plans to ship 323 million to 338 million tons of Pilbara iron ore this year. It stated that with the deployment of eight safety production system sites achieving their best production performance in the past month, they are ready to achieve their 2024 goals, including further increasing Pilbara's iron ore production by 5 million tons.
Vale expects its production to remain in the range of 310 million to 320 million tons in 2024, with an upper limit slightly lower than Rio Tinto's production guidance target. BHP's annual production guidance target remains unchanged, with iron ore production remaining between 282 million and 294 million tons.
In addition to iron ore, the metal categories widely used in the field of new energy such as nickel are increasingly attracting the attention of mining companies.
At present, Vale is the second largest nickel producer in the world, second only to Nornickel in Russia. It owns the Ways Bay mine in Canada, which is one of the largest nickel deposits in the world.
In 2023, Vale's nickel production declined mainly due to the depletion of the open-pit mine in the Vois Bay operating area, leading to a transition to underground operations, and the planned reconstruction of the Ona Puma operating area's furnaces. The reconstruction plan resulted in a year-on-year decrease of 4500 tons in the production of the latter, and the reconstruction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024.
Vale plans to maintain a nickel production target range of 160000-175000 tons in 2023.
BHP Billiton's nickel production in the 2023 natural year was 81400 tons, and its production guidance target for the 2024 fiscal year (July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2024) remains unchanged, ranging from 77000 to 87000 tons; Rio Tinto still has production data for nickel mines.
BHP Billiton's production for the first half of fiscal year 2024 (July 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023)
Chart source: BHP Billiton
BHP Billiton stated that it is evaluating various feasible response plans to alleviate the impact of the current decline in nickel prices on Nickel West.
It is also worth noting that last year BHP Billiton's thermal coal production increased significantly by 35% to 16.2 million tons. According to the announcement, its New South Wales thermal coal business reached a new five-year high in the second half of 2023.
As of the close on January 30th, BHP Billiton's stock price fell 0.31% to $61.77, with a total market value of $156.5 billion; Rio Tinto fell 1.2% to $70.2, with a total market value of $113.81 billion; Vale fell 0.71% to $13.89, with a total market value of $59.77 billion.