On one hand, Cook's second visit to China within the year was non-stop, while on the other hand, Huawei caught up with the domestic sales of the iPhone 15 due to difficulties.
On October 18th, Apple CEO Cook's personal Weibo account posted a video about Cook visiting the Apple Watch production line accompanied by Li Xun Precision Chairman Wang Laichun.
In mid October, Cook embarked on his second trip to China this year, with a busy schedule. On the morning of the 18th, Cook, who was still at the Zhejiang factory, appeared at Apple's Beijing Sanlitun store in the evening; On the previous 16th, Cook appeared in Apple Chengdu Taikoo Li and also watched a King of Glory performance competition; On the 17th, I visited Ya'an and announced that Apple will donate 25 million yuan to the China Rural Development Foundation to support helping farmers, empowering students, and revitalizing communities.
China has become the largest single market for iPhones, but this does not mean that Apple can rest assured.
At the same time as Cook's relentless efforts, there have been constant news about Apple in the market this week, mostly centered around the iPhone, including but not limited to: iPhone 15's initial sales in China have decreased by 4.5% compared to the previous generation, iPhone may be more expensive next year, and iPhone 15 Pro Max has been exposed to have screen burning issues
Huawei's sales in China surpass Apple's
On September 13th, Apple launched the new iPhone 15 series and officially went on sale on September 22nd. But since its release, there have been continuous negative voices about the iPhone 15 series in the domestic market. The price of iPhone 15 and 15 Plus has been "broken", and the rush to buy iPhone 15 Pro has not been as high as the previous generation. The iPhone 15 Pro Max has experienced screen burning
The most discussion still focuses on the sales comparison between Apple and Huawei. Before the release of Apple's new device, Huawei's new device parachuted in, randomly triggering a rush to queue up and buy, making "far ahead" a hot internet meme.
From feedback from C-end consumers, many former Apple users have turned to Huawei. Some consumers have told reporters that they originally planned to wait for the release of the iPhone 15 Pro, but after the Huawei Mate 60 Pro was released, they immediately snapped up one. The feedback from offline distributors is also the same. The price of the iPhone 15 series has broken, the sales performance of the Pro version is not as optimistic as expected, and Huawei's problem is "out of stock".
The same situation is presented in the data collected by the institution. According to Counterpoint Research, the sales of the iPhone 15 series in China decreased by 4.5% compared to the same period as the iPhone 14 in the 17 days after its release. Senior analyst Mengmeng Zhang said, "The overall data performance of the iPhone 15 series in China is poor, reflecting an overall decline in consumer spending. However, the shortened pre holiday consumption time, coupled with a mismatch in Pro Max supply (consumers do not like blue models), may delay some demand until the fourth quarter
In contrast, Huawei's rapid growth momentum. According to a recent research report by China CITIC Construction Investment Corporation, Huawei is the manufacturer with the strongest growth momentum since September. After the "Pioneer Plan" released the Mate60 series of new phones on August 29th, Huawei's mobile phone sales saw rapid growth, with year-on-year growth rates of 91%, 46%, 83%, and 95% in the past four weeks (W37-W40). Huawei's sales share of mobile phones has also increased from around 10% before the release of the Mate60 series to 19.4% of the W40, ranking first in the market.
Analysts at investment bank Jeffrey believe that sales of the iPhone 15 are expected to show a double-digit percentage decline compared to the previous generation. In contrast, Huawei is showing strong sales growth with its new smartphone released in August this year. If this trend continues, Apple's top market share in the Chinese smartphone market will give way to Huawei.
It's not just an iPhone issue
According to the rhythm of Apple's release of new products, it is usually seen that Apple releases two batches of new products in September and October each year. Among them, September is the most important autumn release event of the year, mainly focusing on the iPhone and Apple Watch. In October, updates to the Mac and iPad product lines are usually released.
There are still the last 10 days in October, and there are different opinions on whether Apple will release related new products. The mainstream speculation is that even with the release of new products, the upgrade rate will not be significant.
But one thing to note is that as the core product line of Apple, similar to the situation of the iPhone, the performance of the iPad and Mac seems not very optimistic.
According to Apple's previously disclosed data for the third quarter of the 2023 fiscal year (the second quarter of 2023), the three core hardware platforms, iPhone, Mac, and iPad, have collectively declined, with iPad revenue significantly decreasing by 19.84% year-on-year and Mac revenue decreasing by 7.34% year-on-year.
Apple is expected to release its fourth quarter financial report on November 2nd, which may be a glimpse from industry statistics. The latest data from Counterpoint Research shows that in the third quarter of 2023, global PC shipments decreased by 9% year-on-year, and the market continues to be constrained by sluggish demand from consumers and businesses. Among major manufacturers, Apple's global PC shipments in the third quarter were 6.5 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, the largest decline among the top five manufacturers. The decline of Mac in this quarter is partly related to the booming sales in the same period last year. In the third quarter of last year, the performance of Mac business was the best quarter ever.
According to a recent article by renowned analyst Guo Minghui, based on supply chain shipments, it is estimated that Apple's MacBook shipments will decrease by 25-35% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of this year, and for the entire year, shipments will decrease by about 30% year-on-year to around 17 million units. He stated that due to the absence of new products in the fourth quarter of this year, MacBook's shipment momentum will be significantly lower than the previous peak season. The key to Apple not launching new products is that it needs to clear its inventory and redesign its new products and marketing strategy for 2024.
As for the iPad, Apple released a new iPad Pro and the 10th generation iPad in October last year. According to Apple's official website, Apple recently released an updated version of the iPad (10th generation) wireless LAN+cellular network model that supports eSIM for the first time in mainland China.
According to reports, Morgan Stanley predicted in a recent report that Apple's iPad business revenue will significantly decline in the fourth quarter of 2023. The report shows that Apple's iPad is expected to generate revenue of $7.2 billion (approximately 52.6 billion yuan) in the fourth quarter of this year, a decrease of approximately 23% compared to $9.4 billion (approximately 68.7 billion yuan) in the same period last year.
Vision Pro "money" path unknown
On October 18th, Cook appeared at Apple's Sanlitun store in Beijing, where director Lu Chuan also held a sharing session and specifically screened a short film created by the "compatible" Apple Vision Pro to Cook.
In June of this year, Apple released the "first spatial computing device" Apple Vision Pro at the WWDC23 conference, and Lu Chuan also experienced this device on-site.
Cook's visit to China's supply chain may also be related to the progress of Vision Pro. According to official sources, Cook visited the Apple Watch production line at the Lexus Precision factory, but according to public media reports, Lexus Precision is also a manufacturer of Vision Pro.
Cook said that Li Xun Precision is "producing some of our most advanced products". Wang Laichun, Chairman of Li Xun Precision, revealed in an interview with Pengpai News that the company is preparing for production of the Apple Vision Pro, which will be launched early next year.
When Vision Pro was released, the industry was shaken, but now that more than four months have passed, the market has already regained its composure. Especially with the price of this device reaching $3499 (approximately RMB 25560), it is clearly not low for ordinary consumers, which will inevitably affect the sales of Vision Pro. As a result, there are also rumors that Apple intends to develop a low-cost version of Vision Pro.
According to media reports, technology journalist Mark Gurman revealed that before releasing the Vision Pro head display in June this year, Apple had considered developing cheaper head display products, as the Vision Pro's high selling price of $3499 made it difficult to truly popularize. Apple's cheap version of Vision Pro may abandon the use of external displays and Mac grade chips in favor of an iPhone processor.
Analysts have varying opinions, with Guo Minghui previously stating in a post that Apple may have cancelled its plan for a low-priced version of the Vision Pro headphone. Guo Minghui analyzed that the shipment volume of the Vision Pro head display will be lower than market expectations. According to the supplier's production capacity estimation, the shipment volume of Vision Pro head displays in 2024 is between 400000 and 600000 units, which is significantly lower than the market expectation of 1 million units. He also stated that unless Apple significantly reduces the price of the Vision Pro head display, the market's expected significant growth starting from 2025 may not occur.
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