In previous years, autumn was often the time for Apple's new phones to sell well, but this year, this situation seems to have changed somewhat.
Caixin reporters visited multiple electronic product stores in Shenzhen and found that the new iPhone, which was still out of stock during the same period in previous years, participated in a rare multi-channel price reduction activity this year, with a price reduction of over a thousand yuan. This may be related to the fact that iPhones are no longer selling as well.
However, several fruit chain manufacturers such as Lansi Technology (300433. SZ) and Lingzhi Zhizao (002600. SZ) told reporters from Caixin that the company's production is currently normal, and "the capacity utilization rate should be basically the same, not lower than last year," said a securities department official from Desai Battery (000049. SZ) to Caixin reporters.
In addition to the iPhone, Apple's entry into the virtual reality field, VisionPro, has also brought bad news. Some media reports suggest that the product will be discontinued by the end of the year. Although multiple industry insiders have told Caixin reporters that the contribution of VisionPro's business is very small and will not have any impact on the overall performance of the company. But for Apple, this is clearly not a successful attempt.
Multiple business lines have made unexpected progress, and Apple, which dominates the consumer electronics industry, urgently needs to find new growth opportunities. At present, there are constant rumors about Apple's folding machine and AI functions, and the market is most concerned about whether these innovations can bring new growth curves to Apple. Multiple analysts told Caixin reporters that Apple's foldable phone is expected to be launched in the second half of 2026 or 2027, and AI capabilities will drive a tiered growth in iPhone revenue.
Poor sales, iPhone price reduction
The new iPhone models, which were in short supply during the same period in previous years, are no longer in high demand this year.
This is a government subsidy activity, and this year is the first time iPhone has participated, "a staff member from Shenzhen Qianhai Shundian told Caixin reporters. At present, purchasing an iPhone from Shenzhen Shundian can enjoy a 10% discount, with a maximum discount of 1000 yuan.
In addition to offline stores, Apple's official flagship store also announced a Tmall Double 11 promotion on October 20th, and the official participated in a rare direct discount just one month after the release of the new phone. It is reported that the event will start selling in stock on the evening of October 21st, and each iPhone 16 series phone can be discounted by 500 yuan. In addition, if participating in the trade in promotion, the maximum subsidy is 1100 yuan, and when combined, the maximum discount for purchasing an iPhone 16 series phone is 1600 yuan.
The second-hand resale price has also decreased along with the retail price of the store. A second-hand mobile phone recycling merchant showed a recycling quotation to Caixin reporters, which showed that the recycling price of the basic model and iPhone 16 Pro Max was basically the same as the recycling price of the new phone in the same period last year, but the recycling price of the Pro version decreased by 300 yuan.
It is no secret that iPhone 16 sales fell short of expectations. Counterpoint senior analyst Ivan Lam told Caixin reporters that according to his company's observation data, sales of the 16 Pro increased year-on-year compared to the 15 Pro in the first three weeks of the 16 Series release, but sales of the basic models of the 16 Series decreased. In this situation, overall sales of the iPhone decreased by 2% year-on-year in these three weeks.
In the future, we hold a pessimistic attitude towards the overall sales of the iPhone 16 series. A wave of new flagship products from Chinese manufacturers will be launched in the coming weeks, which will bring further pressure to Apple, "Ivan further told Caixin reporters.
At the same time, the news that Apple will cut the price of the iPhone 16 has also spread widely. According to the latest report by Guo Mingchi, a well-known Apple analyst at Tianfeng International, orders for the iPhone 16 series will be significantly reduced from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with a total of about 10 million units, the vast majority of which are non Pro models. This adjustment resulted in a decrease in iPhone 16 production to approximately 84 million units in the second quarter of 2024, and an expected production of 80 million units in the fourth quarter, lower than the 84 million units in the same period last year.
The Caixin reporter has sent an interview outline to Apple regarding the authenticity of the order cutting situation, but as of the time of publication, no response has been received.
Although the 16 series did not meet the strong cycle expected by the market, multiple Apple suppliers recently told reporters from Caixin that the company's production situation is currently good.
We are producing normally and our production capacity is slightly better than in previous years, "a person from the securities department of Lansi Technology told a Caixin reporter who called as an investor.
It is not convenient to disclose the relevant information of the client, but the proportion of related business in the overall company is relatively small, "said a person from the securities department of GoerTek (002241. SZ).
At present, I have not received any relevant information. If it is only the basic model of iPhone 16 (which has been cut off) as you said, it is not expected to have a significant impact on us, "a person from Desai Battery Securities told Caixin reporters.
VisionPro may be discontinued in the industry chain: little impact
In addition to smartphones, there is also bad news about Apple's new business - VisionPro.
According to media reports, due to insufficient content and high prices, the demand for Apple Vision Pro headsets has been poor. Apple has significantly reduced production of Vision Pro headsets and may completely stop producing this version of the device by the end of 2024. Whether this situation is true or not, the Caixin reporter has sent an interview outline to Apple, but as of the time of publication, no response has been received.
As Apple's entry into the virtual reality field, Vision Pro has always been highly anticipated by the market. But after Apple officially launched the Vision Pro in February this year, due to its high pricing starting from $3500 in the international market and $29999 in the domestic market, the product has been "well received but not well received".
In this situation, VisionPro has repeatedly lowered its shipping expectations. In April of this year, Guo Mingchi posted that Apple had lowered its shipment expectations for its Vision Pro headset products in 2024, from the original estimate of 700000 to 800000 units to 400000 to 450000 units. He believes that this adjustment is based on a decrease in pre-sale orders outside the US market, indicating a "sharp decline" in US demand beyond expectations.
According to Counterpoint Research, Apple sold approximately 370000 headsets in the first three quarters of this year and predicts that it will sell up to 50000 more by the end of the year.
However, regarding the news of the discontinuation of VisionPro, the industry chain is not panicked.
If this product (VisionPro) is used alone, its contribution to our revenue is actually very small, almost negligible, because its sales volume and production capacity are not very high, "said a person from the securities department of Lansi Technology to a reporter from Caixin News Agency who called as an investor.
Some industry insiders also bluntly told reporters from Caixin that the product is not very profitable. "The market feedback for VisionPro related businesses is not good, the sales end is not good, and the production end is also not good
What other "cards" can Apple play?
Innovation capability is the lifeblood of technology companies, and Apple, which once amazed the world with countless new technologies and features, is clearly struggling. Finding new growth points for performance has become Apple's top priority at present.
Analysts told Caixin reporters that AI is one of them.
Recently, Apple CEO Cook visited China again. According to sources cited by the media, Apple executives have come to the Chinese market this time. In addition to continuing to coordinate with relevant departments on the entry mechanism of Apple's AI software and products, they also intend to seek a certain understanding in the field of AI content and data service providers in mainland China, and intend to have relevant departments recommend manufacturers they recognize.
On October 23rd, Cook publicly responded in an interview about when Apple Intelligence will enter China, saying, "We are working hard to promote it, and there is a very specific regulatory process behind it. We need to go through this process and hope to bring it to Chinese consumers as soon as possible
Currently, Apple's AI feature, Apple Intelligence, is still heavily restricted by region. According to official information, Apple Intelligence began testing the US English version in October; Chinese, French, Japanese, and Spanish will be released next year, but the specific time is uncertain.
Ivan told Caixin reporters that considering the diversity of features and release regions, the full impact of Apple Intelligence is expected to gradually become apparent over time. Therefore, Apple Intelligence will drive a tiered growth in iPhone revenue, rather than a single supercycle.
In addition, there has been an increasing amount of news about Apple folding machines recently. Since the beginning of this year, Apple has disclosed multiple patents related to foldable screens. Recently, a patent called "Electronic Device with Display and Touch Sensor Structure" has attracted market attention. The patent document released pictures of the technology applied to three fold and four fold phones, sparking speculation that Apple will make a four fold phone.
Based on current observations of supply chain trends, Apple's plan to launch foldable screen devices seems increasingly clear, with the first foldable screen phone expected to be launched in the second half of 2026 or 2027 TrendForce Consulting and Analysis's Teacher Bo Yu told Caixin that in the context of the lack of significant innovation in traditional straight edge mobile phone hardware, Apple may have to launch foldable phones to meet market demand. He believes that based on past experience, although Apple will continue to lay out patents, it will still adopt a relatively stable strategy in actual product design, so the possibility of innovation breakthroughs is not high.