On January 15, 2024, Apple China's official website launched a rare event preview, which will start the "New Year limited time discount" from January 18 to 21. Apple has stated that purchasing Apple products through eligible payment methods can save up to 800 yuan, of which the iPhone product can save up to 500 yuan. As soon as the news came out, the topic of "rare and significant price reduction on Apple's official website" topped the Weibo hot search list, causing heated discussions among netizens.
On January 17th, the Tmall Apple Store flagship store and JD New Year's Day 10 billion yuan subsidy also joined the ranks of price reduction promotions, with a greater degree of price reduction than the official Apple store. Some netizens exclaimed, "Apple can't sit still anymore.".
Prior to this, the iPhone 15 series products from channels such as JD, Pinduoduo, and some offline distribution stores had already undergone varying degrees of promotion. "The sales of the iPhone 15 series are not good," a mobile phone retailer in Guangzhou told a reporter from China Business Daily. "The price of Apple phones has dropped significantly since the end of 2023, and this has been the trend recently."
Regarding the recent situation and reasons for the multi-channel promotion of Apple's iPhone, the reporter contacted and interviewed Apple China, but as of the time of publication, no response has been received. However, several industry insiders have stated in an interview with our reporter that this is related to the current average demand for the iPhone 15 series in the Chinese market, insufficient product upgrades, and declining attractiveness.
Multi channel price reduction
According to the official website of Apple China, the "Spring Festival limited time promotion" launched this time will start from January 18-21, 2024. Apple stated that purchasing the full range of iPhone 15, iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Plus, or iPhone 13 through eligible payment methods can save up to 500 yuan; Purchase the 13/15 inch MacBook Air (M2 chip model) or 13 inch MacBook Air (M1 chip model) through a payment method that meets the conditions, and save up to 800 yuan in one go; Purchasing an iPad Pro, iPad Air, iPad (10th generation), or iPad mini through eligible payment methods can save up to 400 yuan; Buying an Apple Watch SE using a payment method that meets the conditions can save you 200 yuan. After the news spread, it quickly sparked heated discussions and became the top trending topic on Weibo.
In fact, before the official announcement of price reductions on Apple's website, multiple domestic platform channels had already adopted price reduction promotions. On January 6th, the iPhone 15 128GB version on Apple's self operated flagship store on JD.com was sold for only 5199 yuan, which is 800 yuan cheaper than the official website; In the Pinduoduo 10 billion yuan subsidy campaign, the current price of the 256GB iPhone 15 Pro Max in blue titanium metal color is only 8298 yuan, which is 1701 yuan lower than the original price of 9999 yuan on the official website.
"At present, it seems that Apple's price reduction promotion is only for a limited period of time, and the offline stores are still limited. It is uncertain how long the promotion will last and whether it will continue in the future. However, the iPhone 15 series has always had discounts on e-commerce platforms, and the discounts have continued since 'Double 11', even with greater discounts.", IDC China Senior Analyst Guo Tianxiang told reporters, "At the beginning of 2024, Apple had already adjusted the channel prices of the iPhone 15 series for the first time in history, indicating that there is still greater room for price adjustment in some third-party channels and e-commerce platforms."
The reporter noticed that as news of price loosening across the entire range of products on Apple's China official website spread, some third-party channels and e-commerce platforms began to offer more favorable price promotions, which also confirmed the predictions of industry analysts.
On the evening of January 17, 2024, the Tmall New Year Shopping Festival officially opened for sale. The official flagship store of Tmall Apple Store announced that from 8pm on January 17 to January 31, the designated iPhone 15 in the Tmall Apple Store will enjoy a maximum discount of 1000 yuan, starting at 4999 yuan, which is 500 yuan cheaper than the "Spring Festival limited time discount" promotion launched on Apple's official website. It is reported that this is the first time that the official channel price of iPhone 15 has dropped below 5000 yuan.
On January 17, 2024, the most basic configuration of the iPhone 15 128GB version was priced on the JD New Year's Goods Festival's 10 billion yuan subsidy page, and consumers only needed to spend 4739 yuan to get it, a direct decrease of 1260 yuan. The reporter also noticed that the minimum price for the iPhone 14 during the 2023 JD New Year Shopping Festival is 5199 yuan. At the same time, the price of the model version on Apple's self operated flagship store on JD.com has also dropped from 5199 yuan on January 6, 2024 to 4949 yuan.
When it comes to the discounts offered by iPhones on e-commerce platforms, a 3C product marketer on a domestic e-commerce platform sighed to reporters, "Recently, the promotion of the iPhone 15 series products has indeed been strong, and the official website has lowered prices."
At the same time, from January 16th to 17th, 2024, a reporter visited an Apple store and an employee introduced to the reporter, "The discount for the entire iPhone 15 series is 700 yuan, which started on January 15th."
In addition, some offline mobile phone dealers told reporters that the purchase price of the iPhone 15 series has been lowered since the end of 2023. A mobile phone retailer in Guangzhou bluntly told reporters, "The price of Apple phones varies every day, in the range of 30-100 yuan. Even if the price is lowered, it will not sell well."
As various platforms increase their promotion efforts for iPhone 15, the topic of "iPhone 15 price dropping to the lowest in history" has also made it to the hot search list on Weibo.
Transmission of sales pressure and bearish sentiment from institutions
For Apple, a significant price reduction during the off-season in the first quarter, especially the official website promotion, is rare. The timing is unexpected, and the promotional efforts have exceeded the past. In the past, within six months of the launch of new phones, Apple often controlled the price reduction and only launched promotional activities on Double 11 or holidays. However, since the release of the iPhone 14 series, Apple has gradually broken the norm and collaborated with e-commerce platforms to frequently offer discounts and lower prices. Shortly after the release of the iPhone 15 series, its promotional activities have appeared frequently.
Since its release on September 22, 2023, the iPhone 15 series models have lost their previous popularity in China. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, the sales performance of the iPhone 15 series in China within 17 days after its release was lower than that of the iPhone 14 in 2022. At the same time, the launch of new phones such as Huawei Mate 60 has sparked a rush to purchase, leading to sustained shortages.
The latest research report released by Counterpoint Research also shows that the number of high-end smartphones purchased by global consumers in 2023 (wholesale prices exceeding $600) increased by 6% compared to the same period in 2023, setting a new record. Although Apple remains the king of the global smartphone high-end market, its market share has decreased by 4% to 71% compared to 75% in 2022. Counterpoint Research pointed out that this is mainly attributed to the Mate 60 series driving Huawei's recovery in the Chinese market, and Samsung has also won market share with its S23 and folding series. Folding screen smartphones have also become a differentiating factor in the high-end market.
At the beginning of the 2024 New Year, the sales situation of the iPhone market was flat and there was still no improvement. Some overseas investment banks have also downgraded Apple's rating.
Firstly, investment bank Barclays downgraded Apple's stock rating from "neutral" to "underweight" and lowered its target price for the next 12 months to $160 per share. Prior to this, few securities firms had given Apple's stock a bearish rating.
Barclays Bank analyst Tim Long believes that the poor sales of iPhone 15 will continue; Although the iPhone 16 has not been released yet, it is expected that there will be no major upgrades that will stimulate consumers to upgrade and upgrade. Barclays Bank also pointed out that the decline in consumer electronics may continue for a long time, which is a huge challenge for Apple.
Subsequently, Harsh Kumar, an analyst at investment bank Piper Sandler, downgraded Apple's rating citing concerns about insufficient demand for iPhones.
Recently, analysts at Redburn Atlantic Securities stated that the upward potential of Apple's stock price in the coming years will be very limited, so the rating of Apple's stock has been downgraded from "buy" to "neutral". Apple's stock rating has been downgraded three times since the beginning of 2024.
According to a report recently released by analysts at Jefferies, an investment bank on Wall Street, Apple's iPhone sales in China decreased by 30% year-on-year in the first week of 2024. The analyst believes that this is mainly due to fierce competition from local Chinese competitors, especially Huawei's strong counterattack.
According to a report by Jeffrey analysts, although Apple has offered significant discounts on multiple iPhone models in China's major online markets, it has failed to stimulate sales growth.
Guo Tianxiang analyzed to reporters that the main reason is that the upgrade of the iPhone 15 series itself has limited appeal to Chinese consumers. The increase in competitiveness of Chinese brands in flagship products is not only due to Huawei's return, but also to the significant pressure on Apple's market performance from the Xiaomi 14 series, vivo's X100 series, and Honor's foldable screen series. However, it is undeniable that despite facing increasing challenges, Apple's overall competitiveness remains the strongest, so even with significant price discounts, it will still attract more consumers to purchase.
In terms of market value, on January 12th, Apple's market value was surpassed by Microsoft due to a continuous decline in its stock price, and the world's highest market value throne was also taken over by Microsoft. According to Dow Jones market data, Microsoft's market value last led Apple in November 2021.
It is worth noting that, based on data from third-party organizations, Apple has just topped the global smartphone sales chart. Market research firms IDC and Canalys have released their latest reports, stating that in 2023, Apple will become the world's best-selling smartphone, surpassing Samsung for the first time to become the annual smartphone sales champion.
The highly anticipated Apple Vision Pro is about to be launched, with high expectations from the outside world.
On February 2nd, Apple will officially launch and sell the Apple Vision Pro in the US market, with a starting price of $3499. Guo Minggui, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, stated on social media that the initial stock of Apple's VisionPro headset is about 60000 to 80000 units. Due to the small amount of stock available, it is believed that there will be a shortage of stock in the early stages of listing. Guo Minggui stated that although there is currently no clear indication of the product positioning and key features of Vision Pro, and there are doubts about its affordable price, the user experience created by revolutionary technological innovation (such as giving people the illusion of being able to control the user interface with their minds), as well as the number of core Apple fans and heavy users, should be easily sold out after release.