On January 11th, two market research firms, IDC and Gartner, released reports on global PC (personal computer) shipments for the fourth quarter of last year. Although there are some slight differences in the data, they all convey good news - the PC market is expected to see a recovery.
The global shipment volume of PCs in the fourth quarter was around 65 million units. Gartner's data shows 63.3 million units, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year, marking the first growth in personal computer products after eight consecutive quarters of decline. However, although IDC's shipment volume data is higher than Gartner's, at 67.1 million units, the year-on-year value is still in a downward trend.
Nevertheless, both companies believe that the market contraction has bottomed out and growth is expected this year.
In the year 2023, which has come to an end, many PC manufacturers are struggling and have to face a continuous decline in numbers. In 2022, the shipment volume decreased by 16.5% year-on-year, and further shrank by 13.9% last year. The reason for this is directly related to the fact that consumers purchased a large amount of PCs during the epidemic, which consumed market demand in advance.
Unlike the continuous decline in shipment volume, the ranking of manufacturers in this industry has remained stable for a long time. Even if there are changes, they often occur between Lenovo and HP.
IDC data
According to IDC data, Lenovo currently ranks first with a market share of 24%, followed by HP and Dell at 20.8% and 14.8%, respectively. However, Lenovo and HP's share has increased, while Dell is declining.
In the fourth quarter, Lenovo also achieved its first year-on-year increase in shipment volume since the third quarter of 2021. According to Gartner's analysis, as China is Lenovo's largest market, the overall decrease in demand has had a significant impact on Lenovo. Even though Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas achieved double-digit growth, it was offset by weakness in the Asia Pacific region and Japan.
Among the top five brands, Apple and Asus rank fourth and fifth respectively, but there may be significant differences in the data on Apple shipments between the two reports due to statistical issues.
According to IDC's data, Apple's shipments in the fourth quarter decreased by 18.4% compared to the previous year, while Gartner showed a year-on-year increase of 7.2%.
Gartner data
Although the two data companies did not provide a detailed explanation of the reasons for Apple's growth or decline, it is an undeniable fact that Apple computers have performed poorly in recent quarters, and their overall performance still needs to be driven by the iPhone.
From a regional perspective, the US PC market has achieved year-on-year growth for the first time since the second quarter of 2021, with a growth rate of 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, HP continued to maintain its position as the top seller at its headquarters with a market share of 27.7%. The shipment volume in the Asia Pacific region decreased by 8% in the fourth quarter, marking seven consecutive quarters of decline.
"After experiencing an extraordinary growth period from 2020 to 2021, the PC market has experienced a significant adjustment period in the past two years," said Kitakawa, Chief Analyst at Gartner.
The shipment volume of PCs in 2023 was 241.8 million units, a decrease of 14.8% compared to 2022. This is also the first time since the shipment volume of 230 million units in 2006 that it has dropped to below 250 million units.
Kitakawa pointed out in the report that even in the face of rising component prices in 2024 and geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the six major suppliers have not shown significant share growth or losses, and therefore it is expected that the PC market will resume annual growth this year.
Currently, various manufacturers are striving to find new growth points. From the ongoing CES exhibition, it can be seen that AI PCs are highly likely to play this role. It is expected that many brands of AI PCs will be launched by the middle of this year, but it will still take time to achieve comprehensive popularization.