Yesterday, the three major US stock indexes strengthened unilaterally throughout the day, with the Nasdaq up 2.2%, recovering most of this year's decline. The S&P 500 index rose 1.41%, and both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq achieved their largest gains in nearly two months, while the Dow rose 0.58%.
Popular technology stocks generally rose, with Apple up 2.42%, Microsoft up 1.89%, Amazon up 2.66%, META up 1.9%, Google A up 2.29%, and Tesla up 1.25%. Nvidia surged 6.4%, with a stock price exceeding $522, setting a new historical high and a total market value of approximately $1.29 trillion. Nvidia announced the launch of three new graphics cards for consumers during a speech at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
In addition, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 4.0%, falling 10 basis points at one point, far from a three week high. The US dollar index fell off a three week high; The offshore RMB fell 200 points during the trading session and fell 7.17 points, but has since rebounded.
Today (January 9, 2024), the S&P 500 ETF (513500) opened 1.45%, with a trading volume of nearly 30 million yuan. The trading continued to be at a premium, with a premium rate of 0.73%. The latest scale exceeded 9 billion yuan. According to Wind data, the S&P 500 ETF (513500) has received over 680 million yuan of funds on dips in the past two days.
The Nasdaq 100ETF (513390) rose by over 2%, with a significant intraday premium of 0.55% and active trading.
On the news front, Federal Reserve officials continue to express hawkish views. Federal Reserve Director Bauman stated that the appropriate timing for interest rate cuts has not yet been reached; There is still a significant risk of upward inflation and caution needs to be maintained; If the development process of inflation stagnates, there is still a willingness to raise interest rates; As inflation rates decrease, interest rate cuts will ultimately be appropriate; As far as achieving the 2% inflation target is concerned, the policy seems to be sufficiently restrictive.
Federal Reserve Bostic said it is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in the third quarter. Bostic reiterated that it is appropriate to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice before the end of this year; The policy still needs to remain tight by the end of the year, but inflation progress will support interest rate cuts.
Guoxin Securities pointed out that since 2022, the market has been anticipating a substantial recession in the United States, believing that either "hard" or "soft", there will always be a "landing". However, within our economic cycle framework, the global economy has entered an initial expansion phase since 2023, and we expect the expansion to continue for approximately 26 months, covering the entire year of 2024 and continuing until the second quarter of 2025. 2024 should not be pessimistic: On the one hand, based on current economic fundamentals data, we believe that both the market and FOMC have overestimated the probability of a recession in the United States in 2024; On the other hand, inflation has been largely controlled, and if the United States does indeed enter a recession in 2024, there is ample room for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy to operate. Therefore, we believe that the US stock market is still advisable to go long in 2024.