On January 4th local time, the employment data of the "small non farm" ADP in the United States exceeded expectations, reaching a new high since August 2023. Service industry jobs surged, and market expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024 were suppressed.
The closing of major US stock indexes was mixed, with technology stocks continuing to drag down the Nasdaq and S&P, and Apple's stock rating was downgraded by institutions for the second time this week due to concerns about iPhone demand, leading to a continued decline in stock prices.
Apple's stock price has fallen to a new low in nearly two months
On January 4th local time, the US ADP employment report showed that the number of ADP employees in the US increased by 164000 in December, exceeding the expected 125000, and the revised pre value was 101000, mainly driven by an increase in employment in the service industry. But the salary growth rate continues to slow down. The market's expectation of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024 has been suppressed, and the three major US stock indexes have closed with mixed gains and losses. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.03% to 37440.34 points, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.34% to 4688.68 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.56% to 14510.3 points.
US chip stocks generally fell, with Ansemy Semiconductor falling 3.92%, NXP Semiconductor falling 3.85%, Gexin falling 2.09%, Applied Materials falling 1.41%, Microchip Technology falling 1.38%, Qualcomm falling 1.04%, Intel falling 1.02%, and Nvidia rising 0.9%.
Most major technology stocks in the US fell, with Apple down 1.27%, Amazon down 2.63%, Netflix up 0.94%, Google down 1.82%, Meta up 0.77%, and Microsoft down 0.72%.
Apple has become the largest technology stock with the least bullish rating on Wall Street, and analysts are increasingly concerned about the sales prospects of iPhones. Analyst Harsh Kumar from Piper Sandler, a US investment firm, has downgraded Apple's rating, marking the second time Apple has been downgraded this week.
It downgraded Apple's rating from "overweight" to "neutral", with a target price of $205, citing concerns that iPhone inventory levels and sales growth rates may peak. Due to the weakening macro environment, Harsh Kumar predicts that Apple will face challenges. He also emphasized the impact of high interest rates on Apple's overall performance.
Prior to this, Barclays analyst Tim Long downgraded Apple's stock rating to "underweight.". Baird, an investment bank, recently stated that Apple's stock price may be overvalued, although the bank remains optimistic about Apple's long-term prospects.
Since 2024, Apple has fallen for three consecutive days, with its stock price falling by over 5.5% and its market value evaporating over 160 billion US dollars (approximately 1.15 trillion yuan).
Autonomous driving star company Mobileye plummets by 25%
Mobileye, an autonomous driving technology company controlled by Intel, announced on the 4th local time that the company has excess customer inventory and is expected to see a sharp decline in orders in the first quarter of this year, resulting in a 29% drop in the company's stock price during Thursday's intraday trading. As of the close, the stock fell 24.55%.
Mobileye stated in its preliminary full year outlook released on Thursday that there is an excess of customer inventory. The company stated that after the impact of global supply chain issues on the manufacturing industry, car manufacturers have stockpiled Mobileye chips in large quantities in search of avoiding future component shortages. "As supply chain issues ease, we expect customers to use the vast majority of excess inventory in the first quarter of the year," Mobileye said in its outlook. This means that customers will not order new chips at the same level as in the same period last year.
Intel announced in 2017 that Mobileye would be privatized for over $15 billion, and then went public again in October 2022. Last year, Intel sold $1.5 billion worth of Mobileye shares, but still holds 88% of the company's shares.
Husai armed an unmanned boat carrying explosives that exploded in the Red Sea
According to CCTV news, on the 4th local time, Yemeni Husai militants detonated an armed unmanned boat carrying explosives in the Red Sea area. Due to the fact that the unmanned vessel did not approach US ships or commercial ships during the explosion, no casualties were caused. The US military claims that this is the first time that the Hussain armed forces have used such devices in the Red Sea.
At the same time, Maersk announced on January 4th that four of its five container ships stranded in the Red Sea had diverted to Cape of Good Hope and are now returning to the Suez Canal from the Red Sea to prevent attacks by Hussain militants.
Recently, the Asia Europe route has been affected by the Red Sea incident, and ship owners have chosen to detour around the Cape of Good Hope. Sudden news disrupted the market, causing futures prices to fluctuate significantly along with spot prices. On January 4th Beijing time, the consolidation of European futures rose and fell, and the positions of various contracts on the market continued to decrease. According to Wang Zhijie, a researcher at China Merchants Futures, from the perspective of supply and demand, the Red Sea event is only a short-term disturbance to the fundamentals, and spot and market prices have fully reflected the impact of the Red Sea event. There is no long-term momentum for the continued rise in spot prices.
Zhang Xinghao, a researcher at Bank of China Futures, stated that from a cost perspective, taking into account insurance premiums and other potential costs, the estimated additional cost after deviation is about 80-100 US dollars/TEU. Some market quotes have significantly exceeded the actual additional costs borne, and there is a risk of inflated spot prices. As major shipowners gradually accept the detour plan, there is generally a lack of momentum to support the continued increase in freight rates.
Multiple futures institutions have revealed that some clients have experienced short positions in the first two trading days. After the market on January 4th, the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center issued a notice on adjusting the trading margin ratio and limit up/down range of some contracts of the Container Transport Index (European Line) futures. Starting from the closing settlement on January 4th, 2024 (Thursday), the trading margin ratio and limit up/down range will be adjusted as follows: the trading margin ratio of the Container Transport Index (European Line) futures contracts EC2408, EC2410, and EC2412 contracts will be adjusted to 22%, The range of limit up and down has been adjusted to 20%.