In the next two years, the world economy is expected to grow by 3% and 2.9%, respectively. China remains the largest engine of global economic growth, contributing one-third of global growth, "said Steven Barnett, the IMF's chief representative in China, at a recent press conference on the 2023 International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Report.
The latest World Economic Outlook report shows that the global economic growth rate will slow down from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% this year and 2.9% in 2024, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the IMF's forecast for 2024 in July and still far below its historical average. In addition, overall inflation continues to slow down, and based on year-on-year growth rates, it is expected to decline from 9.2% in 2022 to 5.9% this year and 4.8% in 2024.
Silvia Albrizio, an economist at the IMF's research department, said in interpreting the report that inflation rates in several economies around the world, excluding China, reached decades of highs in 2022, especially core inflation rates; And China's core inflation rate remains basically 0%. According to IMF forecasts, most countries will find it difficult to return to their inflation targets by 2025.
Steven Barnett stated that the world's medium to long-term economic growth is generally sluggish, with the main factor being the decline and slowdown in total factor productivity. More structural reforms are needed to boost economic growth. In this context, he emphasized that trade has always been an important engine of global economic growth, and should reduce trade friction and decoupling, attach importance to the WTO dispute resolution mechanism, and pay attention to climate issues.
It is reported that this press conference is hosted by the International Monetary Fund's Representative Office in China, the International Monetary Institute (IMI) of Renmin University of China, and jointly organized by the International Forum on Financial and Industrial Cooperation (IFIC).