The United States, the world's largest economy, is facing a severe demographic challenge. In the second half of the 20th century, the annual growth rate of the working age population (aged 15-64) in the United States was 1.3%. However, as the century began, the annual growth rate dropped to 1.1%. What is even more surprising is that in the 2010s, the population growth rate of the United States rapidly slowed down, and according to the United Nations Population Division's baseline scenario prediction, the growth of the working age population in the United States will be close to zero for the rest of this century.
On the one hand, the number of eligible workers in the United States is expected to reach 208 million by March 2023. On the other hand, according to data from the Congressional Budget Office, the civilian non institutional population of the United States, namely the population aged 16 and above, is expected to increase from 266 million in 2023 to 301 million in 2053, with an average annual growth rate of 0.4%. Although the growth rate has slowed down, the working-age population in the United States is still gradually increasing.
In addition, the population structure of the United States is also undergoing profound changes. With the extension of life expectancy, the dependency ratio between retirees and the working-age population is increasing. In North America, this ratio is expected to increase from 24 retirees per 100 working-age population to 36 by 2037. At the same time, the median age in the United States is also gradually increasing, which may have a significant impact on businesses, such as increasing the burden of health insurance and retirement benefits.
At the same time, the labor market is gradually tightening. Experts point out that in order to cope with the tension in the labor market, investing in improving productivity has become crucial.