On October 12th local time, Bloomberg cited a report from research consulting firm Gavekal Dragonomics that found that the United States' dependence on Chinese imports has decreased to a lower level than its official data shows.
Thomas Gatley, an analyst at the institution, wrote in a report that since the United States imposed large-scale tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, the share of US imports from China has decreased by 2 to 3 percentage points, rather than about 8 percentage points as shown by US government data. The report states that official US data shows a decrease in the proportion, partly due to the diversion of Chinese goods to Southeast Asia and other third countries, as well as the low invoicing of US importers to reduce the impact of tariffs.
On October 13th, a cargo ship loaded goods at Qingdao Port in Shandong Province. From IC Photo
According to data from the US Census Bureau, which is part of the US Department of Commerce, last month, the evaluation share of US imports from China decreased to 14.6% in the 12 months to July this year. However, in the 12 months to March 2018, this proportion peaked at 21.8%, as then US President Trump attempted to wield a so-called "trade stick" against China.
However, Gately stated that China's actual share in US imports may be close to 18%, lower than the previous 21%. He added that this result "although not insignificant, it is not enough to turn the world around".
Gately also stated that the export data collected by Chinese customs can better reflect the import situation of the United States from China than the United States. He pointed out that according to China's export data, in the declining share of US imports from China, low invoicing may account for about 3 percentage points, while diversion trade through Southeast Asia may account for about 2 percentage points.
Bloomberg pointed out that the content of Jia Fu Long Zhou's report is consistent with another recent study, which also believes that the United States' trade dependence on China is higher than traditional measurement standards show. A report released last week by the Brookings Institution, a US think tank, found that by 2018, China had become the most important foreign supplier to over 90% of the US manufacturing industry, especially for clothing, motor vehicles, and electrical equipment.
On September 19th local time, the general debate of the 78th United Nations General Assembly opened at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. According to a press release released on the White House website, US President Biden mentioned China US relations during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly that day. Biden stated that the United States does not seek conflict with China, nor does it want to decouple from China.
When it comes to China, I want to clearly and unanimously state that we seek to manage competition between the two countries in a responsible manner to prevent competition from escalating into conflict. "Biden told leaders and representatives of various countries present that when dealing with Sino US relations, the United States" supports reducing risks, rather than decoupling from China.
However, it is worth noting that for a period of time, officials of the Biden administration have been talking loudly about opposing "decoupling" and hoping to strengthen communication with China. At the same time, they have disregarded international economic and trade rules and engaged in trade protectionism. For example, the "Chip Act" signed by the Biden administration provides huge subsidies to chip manufacturing companies in the United States, while requiring them to agree to "not develop precision chip manufacturing in China", Recently, it has also attempted to restrict American companies' investment in key economic sectors such as Chinese semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing through administrative orders.
On April 21st, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin pointed out at a regular press conference that the United States is accustomed to politicizing, instrumentalizing, and weaponizing economic, trade, and technological issues under the guise of national security, vigorously promoting "decoupling and chain breaking", and even resorting to economic coercion against allies at the expense of friends. The true purpose of the US side is to deprive China of its development rights, maintain its own hegemony and self-interest, which is a blatant economic coercion and technological hegemony, seriously violating the principles of market economy and fair competition, seriously disrupting the international economic and trade order, seriously disrupting the stability of the global industrial and supply chains, and damaging the interests of the entire world. China will closely monitor relevant trends and resolutely safeguard its own rights and interests.