A big data hit the market.
On the evening of October 12, Beijing time, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US CPI in September rose 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.6%, and the month-on-month growth rate was 0.4%, which also exceeded market expectations. Wall Street analysts pointed out that the stronger-than-expected data increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Overnight in the United States, the three major indexes collectively dive into the green, the Dow maximum diving range of more than 400 points, as of the close, the Dow fell 0.51%, Nasdaq fell 0.63%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.62%.

It is worth noting that the European energy sector again passed the "bad news", local time on October 12, the French power company EDF said in a regulatory filing that it received a strike notice, will last from Wednesday night to Friday. As a result, European natural gas futures prices surged more than 13% to as high as 52.4 euros/megawatt-hour, up 45% from Friday's closing price.
Surprise attack
On the evening of October 12, Beijing time, data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year in September, unchanged from the previous month, exceeding the expected 3.6%, and the month-on-month growth rate slowed to 0.4% from 0.6% last month, exceeding the expected 0.3%.
Among them, core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs and is more closely watched by the Fed, fell to 4.1 per cent from 4.3 per cent last month, the smallest increase in nearly two years but still above 4 per cent. Month-on-month growth was unchanged from the previous month at 0.3 per cent, in line with expectations.
Analysts generally believe that the cooling core CPI may take some pressure off the Federal Reserve, but energy prices are still strong, making it difficult for U.S. inflation to fall, and the Fed may need to keep interest rates high for longer.
It is worth noting that according to the latest report released by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, due to oil demand reaching a record high, the oil gap in the fourth quarter will be a record high, and global oil inventories are expected to fall by 3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, becoming the largest inventory decline in 30 years. This means that there is potential for oil prices to rise in the fourth quarter.
In addition to food and commodities, housing prices in the United States increased by 7.2% in September, accounting for more than 70% of the total growth of the core CPI, and is also an important reason for the stubborn inflation in the United States.
In addition, as can be seen from the latest inflation data, the hot labor market continues to support U.S. consumer demand, which may keep upward pressure on prices. Swaps pricing suggests investors are pricing in about a 50 per cent chance of the Fed raising rates again this year, up sharply from 30 per cent a day earlier, with the first rate cut expected next year pushed back from June to July.
After the release of CPI data, the US dollar index soared, pulling up 75 points during the day, extending the intraday increase to 0.71%, other non-US currencies suffered a wave of diving, offshore RMB once fell more than 200 points, losing 7.31; The yen is approaching the 150.00 mark. Us Treasury prices plunged and yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, known as the anchor of global asset pricing, rising more than 10 basis points.
After the opening of the US stock market, the three major indexes after the collective dive to turn green, the US Treasury Department announced the demand of the 30-year US bond yield auction results, the US stock market again diving, the three major indexes are refreshing the day's low, the Dow maximum diving range of more than 400 points, as of the close of the day, the Dow fell 0.51%, the Nasdaq fell 0.63%. The S&P 500 fell 0.62 percent.
Among them, China concept stocks fell sharply, Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index closed down 3.4%, Jingdong fell more than 8%, NiO Automobile fell nearly 6%, Baidu, Bilibili, Xiaopeng Automobile, Tiger Securities fell more than 4%, Alibaba fell more than 3%, Pinduoduo, ideal Automobile fell more than 2%.

Wall Street analysts noted that U.S. inflation in September was higher than expected, increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. In addition, the newly released minutes of the Fed meeting showed that policymakers generally agreed to balance the risks of too much tightening and not enough tightening, and most still saw upside risks to inflation. Policymakers agreed that high interest rates should remain high for "some time," and most predicted that another hike was likely. A large majority said economic uncertainty was high, and there were views that the auto strike posed both upside inflation and downside risks to the economy.
Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo, said getting inflation down to the "last mile" of 2 percent is tough, which is why the Fed will stay tight for quite some time.
"New Fed News" Nick Timiraos believes that inflationary pressures continue to exist, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to announce a pause in interest rate hikes, and the possibility of further interest rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
The Federal Reserve Collins is releasing a "hawkish" signal said that the rise in yields strengthens the view that the Federal Reserve is at or close to the peak interest rate, does not rule out the possibility of further tightening, September CPI data show that it takes time for prices to restore stability, and monetary policy at this stage requires patience.
Big news from TSMC

The Biden administration's move to impose major restrictions on China's semiconductor industry in 2022 has particularly unnerved South Korea's Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and TSMC, fearing it will hurt their net profits and disrupt the technology supply chain. The Biden administration approved one-year waivers for the three companies in October 2022, through Oct. 11 of this year.
South Korean authorities said Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were designated as "proven end users", which would allow them to import US chip-making equipment for their existing factories in China without having to seek separate US approval.
According to people familiar with the US government's move, TSMC will again be granted a one-year exemption, as it was in 2022. Washington has told TSMC that it can maintain normal operations on the mainland for the foreseeable future as long as no major technology upgrades are made.
It is not clear whether TSMC will be considered a "proven end user" or whether Samsung and SK Hynix will need to extend the exemption period for another year.
Reported that TSMC currently has a factory in Nanjing, with 20,000 pieces of advanced process production capacity, mainly 12nm and 16nm. At the same time, TSMC Nanjing plant has also increased the production capacity of 20,000 pieces of 28nm process, which has been basically completed.
Europe's crisis
On October 12, local time, the French electric power company (EDF) was hit by a strike over the annual wage negotiations and led to a drop in electricity production. The strike notice was issued on Wednesday evening local time and will continue until Friday evening local time. As a result of the strike, EDF's hydro capacity was reduced by 150 megawatts on Thursday morning, as was output at the Belleville 2 nuclear reactor.
Edf warned that flow monitoring of the Rhone River showed that electricity production could fall further.
Since France is the largest electricity exporter in the euro zone, a drop in EDF's output could lead the country to reduce electricity exports to neighboring countries. With the heating season approaching in Western Europe, that could push up electricity prices and boost demand for natural gas for power generation.
Affected by this, European natural gas prices soared, the European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas futures prices rose more than 13% during the day, stood at 50 euros/megawatt-hour mark, the highest at 52.4 euros/megawatt-hour, compared with the closing price on Friday, a cumulative increase of 45%.
In addition to the French general strike, energy giant Chevron has ordered the shutdown of operations at a major Israeli gas field due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, adding to market concerns about gas prices. Another gas exporter, Australia, is also worried about a drop in production due to the strike.
The latest news shows that Chevron and the Australian liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant workers union talks failed to reach a labor agreement, the second round of negotiations extended to Friday, if the talks break down, workers will resume the strike on October 19.
Natural gas is mainly used for electricity generation and heating, and higher fuel prices will push up electricity bills further. At present, a series of events are developing against the stability of energy and electricity prices in the EU winter, and the market is waiting for updated price signals.
The caveat is that if the negotiations in the labor sector continue to be difficult and strikes become more frequent, it may have a more pronounced impact on the French energy sector.
Edf said in a statement that some workers would start the strike on Wednesday night and that action on Thursday should be limited to the energy production sector, followed by a nationwide strike on Friday that would also include transport workers, teachers and other professions.