Foreign institutions, continue to be optimistic about A-shares!
On November 25th, the A-share market bottomed out and rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 1% during trading and the ChiNext Index falling more than 1.6% during trading; After 14:18 in the afternoon, active funds gradually entered the market to buy the bottom, and the overall index rose sharply. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly by 0.10%, and the ChiNext Index fell slightly by 0.02%. The number of stocks that rose in the entire market exceeded 3700, with nearly 170 stocks hitting the limit up.
Many foreign institutions have expressed optimism about the future trend of the A-share market. Recently, Ma Lei, Chief Investment Officer of Jingshun in Mainland China and Hong Kong, issued a statement stating that from a valuation perspective, Chinese stocks are attractive and at a relatively low level compared to historical averages and other developed markets. He is optimistic about the development of Chinese stocks in the next 12 months; Morgan Asset Management's global market strategist Zhou Huantong said that at present, she is more optimistic about A-shares than H-shares. In terms of stock selection, she focuses on high dividend yields and defensive domestic banking and telecommunications sectors; Goldman Sachs recently suggested continuing to overstock A-shares in 2025, with a focus on areas such as consumption.
A-shares bottoming out and rebounding
Recently, the A-share market has maintained high volatility and the overall index has adjusted. On November 25th, the three major A-share indexes fell sharply, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all falling more than 1% during trading. However, after 14:18 in the afternoon, a lot of funds flooded in to buy the bottom, and early active stocks such as the 360 rose sharply, further activating market sentiment. In the end, the three major A-share indexes only fell slightly at the end of the day.
From today's market outlook, small cap stocks are unusually active, with sectors such as solid-state batteries, AI pharmaceuticals, short drama games, human brain engineering, and cross-border e-commerce all strengthening. Among them, the concept stocks of solid-state batteries have caused a surge of limit up, with more than 20 individual stocks including Mengguli, Gaole Shares, Xiangtan Electric, Youyan New Materials, and Keliyuan rising by the limit up or more than 10%.
Recently, Honda publicly showcased its self-developed solid-state battery demonstration production line for the first time. Honda stated that the production line will mainly be used for technical validation of the mass production process of all solid state batteries, and is scheduled to be officially put into use in January 2025. In addition, GGII (High Tech Lithium Battery Industry Research Institute) believes that solid-state batteries are still in the early stages of development, mainly consisting of semi-solid batteries. This year, the shipment volume of semi-solid batteries is expected to be about 7GWh, exceeding 65GWh by 2030 and reaching about 300GWh by 2035. All solid state batteries are expected to achieve a shipment volume exceeding 1GWh by 2028.
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out that since the end of September, the CSI 2000 Index and CSI 1000 Index, which have a small to medium cap style, have significantly outperformed the CSI 300 Index and SSE 50 Index, which have a large cap style. The small cap index has an excess return of 13% compared to the large cap index, and exhibits characteristics such as active individual investors entering the market, technology style dominance but hot spot rotation in segmented fields, and active mergers and acquisitions. In the short term, factors such as industry trends, macro and liquidity environment, capital market construction direction, valuation and crowding comparison are still conducive to the interpretation of small cap style. However, in recent times, marginal changes such as increasing trading crowding have had an impact on small cap style. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to changes in relevant indicators. In the medium-term dimension, if the fundamentals gradually bottom out and rebound, and the price comparison effect approaches its extreme value, there may be a shift in size and style. In 2025, with the implementation of policies, the number of industries that are expected to rebound is expected to gradually increase, and some leading individual stocks may benefit first. The overall market style may have a phased performance, and the key to whether there is a trend shift in style depends on the pace of economic stabilization.
Since mid November, the market has continued to adjust. Guotai Junan pointed out that the current stock market is rapidly taking into account the potential policy space of China and the complexity of Trump's tariff pressure, resulting in adjustments in Hong Kong and A-shares. However, this is not a bad thing for the stock market and lays the foundation for a rebound in the coming year. The sluggish domestic demand and external pressure also open up space for incremental economic policies in 2025. Potential policies include higher deficit ratios, greater transfer payments to local governments, more proactive measures to promote consumption, and greater exchange rate flexibility. Therefore, it is expected that the stock market will rebound across the year from December until the Trump administration takes office, but overall the stock index is still volatile. In 2025, dividends will still have phased performance, but they may not necessarily be the protagonist. Potential opportunities lie in the growth of the large market due to capacity elimination and the reversal of difficulties in the real estate chain.
According to the latest research report by Galaxy Securities, looking ahead to the future, A-shares are expected to fluctuate upwards. On the one hand, with the accelerated implementation of existing policies and the introduction of a package of incremental policies, the economic fundamentals are showing an improving trend. On the other hand, after Trump was elected as the President of the United States, the US policy towards China faced significant uncertainty.
Foreign institutions continue to be optimistic
Despite the recent volatility in the A-share market, from the perspective of foreign institutions, there are many institutions that are optimistic about the future trend of the A-share market.
Recently, Ma Lei, Chief Investment Officer of Jingshun in Mainland China and Hong Kong, issued a statement stating that from a valuation perspective, mainland stocks appear attractive and are at a relatively low level compared to historical averages and other developed markets. In October, the MSCI China Index was discounted by approximately 52% compared to the MSCI US Index. Considering the current sluggish market expectations, he believes that A-shares will have significant growth potential in 2025 and is optimistic about their development in the next 12 months.
Ma Lei stated that as the fundamental factors of the enterprise improve, expected revenue will reverse, and the profit margin pressure that has been present for the past three years will also ease. This is expected to drive an increase in return on equity and upward revision of profit forecasts, thereby enhancing investor confidence. Ma Lei pointed out that this round of recovery is expected to be supported by sustained stimulus measures.
Jing Shun expects another key trend in 2025 to be Chinese companies focusing on increasing shareholder returns through active share repurchases and improving corporate governance. This trend may not only increase minority interests, but also signify a determination to give back value to shareholders. The market expects a strong rebound in the per share dividends of Chinese stocks, with an expected increase of 16% in 2024, 6% in 2025, and 8% in 2026. This recovery will be widespread, with over 35% of companies expected to declare higher dividends in 2024. Companies with stronger cash flow are more likely to achieve dividend growth and engage in share repurchases. Jing Shun believes that with the popularization of these practices, investor confidence will be enhanced, and the Chinese stock market will also attract more investors.
Wang Zonghao, Head of China Equity Strategy Research at UBS Investment Bank, stated that the stock price return of MSCI China Index will reach 5% to 6% by 2025, and believes that any retracement will provide investors with more attractive buying points. He stated that continuing to adopt a dumbbell strategy tends to hold high dividend stocks on one hand, and growth sectors with fundamental support on the other. The Internet is still the preferred industry, while other beta targets are more optimistic about education, beer and A-share technology, media and telecommunications (TMT).
Morgan Asset Management's global market strategist Zhou Huantong pointed out that at present, A-shares are more bullish than H-shares. She stated that the current valuation of technology stocks is relatively reasonable, while consumer stocks have the incentive of exchanging old for new. The ultimate goal of local government bonds is actually to stimulate consumption, and she believes that both the technology and consumption sectors will indirectly benefit. In terms of domestic housing stocks, she believes that the sales of the real estate market have improved and the effectiveness of policies is beginning to emerge. When more data shows sustained recovery, it is possible to wait for low absorption of industry stocks.
Recently, Goldman Sachs released its 2025 outlook, maintaining its investment recommendations for high allocation A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, and still favoring A-shares in the short term because compared to Hong Kong stocks, A-shares have a more favorable effect on policy relaxation and personal investment fund flow sensitivity. It is expected that the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index will rise by 15% and 13% respectively in 2025.