Next week, November 5th will be the voting day for the 2024 US presidential election, where Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris will face off against former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump in the final showdown.
If Harris wins the election, she will become the first female president in American history. If Trump wins the election, he will become the first president since Grover Cleveland in the 1890s to be elected twice without a consecutive term.
At present, the support rates of the two are almost the same. According to a Forbes poll, Harris leads Trump by a narrow margin of only 1%. Gambling websites are heavily betting on Trump, although they have slightly withdrawn in recent days.
Analysis suggests that the final determining factor may be a few swing states, and the winner will be able to reshape US trade policy - especially if Trump wins, the global trade situation may undergo a dramatic change.
Earlier this week, a strategist from Bank of America mentioned that compared to the 2020 election cycle, the number of mentions of the term "election" during earnings conference calls for US listed companies in the third quarter of this year surged by 62%.
In addition to the ownership of the White House, the competition between the two houses of Congress is also particularly fierce. Citigroup strategists have stated that Trump's election victory is usually seen as a positive for the stock market, as his proposal to lower corporate taxes is expected to boost corporate performance, but the Republican Party's buy in is a signal to sell US stocks.
Shortly after the US voting day, the Federal Reserve will hold a rate meeting and announce its interest rate decision early on Friday morning Beijing time. Economists generally predict that the most important central bank in the global financial system will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
At the same time, central banks in countries such as Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom will also announce interest rate decisions. In terms of data, the final PMI values of the European and American service industries and the initial jobless claims values in the United States have attracted investors' attention.
In terms of financial reports, the Q3 earnings season for the US stock market remains busy. Among the technology stocks are chip industry giants such as Qualcomm and Arm Holdings, as well as Nvidia's "good buddy", AMD, which has recently been embroiled in financial fraud, and Novo Nordisk, the developer of the "weight loss miracle drug" Smeaglutide.
There are also reports that Iran is expected to respond to Israel's recent attacks before the US presidential election day. An Israeli military source revealed that Israel is on "high alert" in response to Iran's response.
Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events Next Week (Beijing Time):
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Monday (November 4th): Eurozone October Manufacturing PMI Final Value, Eurozone November Sentix Investor Confidence Index, US September Factory Order Monthly Rate
Tuesday (November 5th): Tokyo Stock Exchange extends trading hours by half an hour, Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate decision and monetary policy statement, UK October service PMI final value, US September trade account, US October ISM non manufacturing PMI, US holds 2024 presidential election
Wednesday (November 6th): Bank of Canada releases minutes of monetary policy meeting, Eurozone October services PMI final value, Eurozone September PPI monthly rate, US Treasury Department announces new quarter bond issuance plan, US October S&P global services PMI final value
Thursday (November 7th): Bank of England announces interest rate decision and meeting minutes, initial jobless claims for the week ending November 2nd in the United States, wholesale sales rate for September in the United States
Friday (November 8th): The Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference, and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for November in the United States