The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cut pricing has been poured with cold water, and whether the rise of the US stock market is facing a test
白云追月素
发表于 2 小时前
121
0
0
After the Federal Reserve's September interest rate meeting, the US stock market has achieved a four-day consecutive weekly increase. The shift in monetary policy has boosted market risk appetite, while new signs of a strong labor market have eased concerns about an economic recession, leading to a decline in expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts.
In the coming week, the impact of geopolitical factors cannot be ignored, and inflation and earnings season will become key factors affecting market trends.
US soft landing prospects strengthen
The resilience of the US economy once again makes the prospect of a soft landing even brighter.
As the most closely watched indicator last week, the US Department of Labor reported that the US added 250000 new jobs in September, far exceeding market expectations, and the employment growth in August and July was also revised upwards. The previously worrying unemployment rate has dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%.
In addition, the latest Job Vacancies and Labor Mobility Survey (JOLTS) shows that job vacancies in the United States rose to a three-month high of 8.04 million in August. The recruitment rate has dropped to 3.3%, remaining at its lowest level since 2013, excluding data from the early stages of the 2020 pandemic. The service industry, as the backbone of the economy, is growing at its fastest pace in a year and a half, with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Service Industry Index climbing to 54.9% in September, the highest level since February 2023.
Bob Schwartz, Senior Economist at Oxford Economics, stated in an interview with First Financial News that the September employment report was far better than expected, with wage growth accelerating. On the other hand, he believes that the strong ISM service sector index is another signal that the economy is still rapidly expanding. "Consumer spending continues to grow at a strong pace, and with the relaxation of the financial environment, it should receive good support this year and next. Once political uncertainty subsides, there is still a lot of room for improvement
The pricing of interest rates has changed, and the yield of medium and long-term US Treasury bonds has risen strongly. The 2-year US Treasury bond, which is closely related to interest rate expectations, rose 36.7 basis points to 3.93% for the week, the largest increase in 16 months. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond rose 22.9 basis points to 3.98% for the week. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Fed Watch, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in November has risen to nearly 90%.
Barclays believes that the latest non farm payroll report undermines the view that external labor demand is losing momentum, strengthening the sustained resilience of economic activity and the possibility of a soft landing. The bank expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meetings in November and December this year.
It is worth noting that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also cooled down aggressive easing in his latest speech last week. Overall, the economic situation is good, and we plan to use our tools to keep it there. If the economy develops as expected, we will make two more cuts by the end of the year, totaling 50 basis points, "he said.
Schwartz told First Financial that given the Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market when considering future interest rate cuts, strikes will cause confusion in employment data and may complicate its decisions. However, the overall impact is temporary, as the labor market and economy are healthy enough to support a 25 basis point rate cut at the November meeting.
Market sentiment remains optimistic
The US stock market has continued its rebound since mid September. As of last Friday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average set its 34th closing record for the year. The S&P 500 index is less than 1% away from a historic high.
Dow Jones market statistics show that there was some differentiation in various industries last week. The sharp rise in crude oil futures pushed up the energy sector by 7%, followed by a 2.2% increase in communication services. Public utilities and finance, industrial and technology stocks rose, while the leading raw materials and real estate sectors led the decline in the previous week. The technology sector has received attention, with OpenAI announcing a new round of funding of $6.6 billion, with a post investment valuation of $157 billion. Several institutions have raised Meta's target price.
In terms of market sentiment, Bank of America's cross asset bull market indicator, which quantifies investor sentiment through fund flow, position data, and market technology, rose from 5.4 to 6, the largest weekly increase since December 2023, indicating that investor sentiment remains optimistic. The bank stated that this is due to strong inflows of emerging market stocks and strong performance of technical indicators in the credit market.
According to the schedule, the third quarter financial report of the US stock market is expected to officially start next week, with JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock taking the lead.
Goldman Sachs' Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin released a report stating that the expected earnings per share for the S&P 500 index in 2025 have been raised from $256 to $268, an 11% increase from the previous year. Considering the expectation of profit growth in 2025, the 12-month target level for the S&P 500 index has been raised from 6000 points to 6300 points.
Jiaxin Wealth Management wrote in its market outlook that last week, the US stock market was hit by the situation in the Middle East and strikes at ports on the East Coast. It should be noted that recent developments have a potential impact on future inflation, which may translate into higher prices, making the Federal Reserve's work more complex and resulting in higher market volatility. At present, inflation data has been moving towards the Federal Reserve's target, the economic foundation is stable, and market participants seem to agree with the Fed's slowing pace of easing.
The institution believes that there are many potential market driving factors in the coming week, such as monthly inflation data (consumer price index on the 10th, industrial producer price index on the 11th) and the third quarter earnings season. The stronger than expected US economic data seems to be the main driving force behind the recent trend of the stock market, which is expected to further boost the market. However, according to the information obtained at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference in September, a cautious attitude is taken towards the profit reports of large banks. It is worth mentioning that FactSet currently predicts a profit growth of 4.6% for the S&P 500 index in the third quarter, lower than the 7.8% at the beginning of this quarter.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- The Federal Reserve suddenly announced layoffs! The first round of aggressive interest rate hikes in 13 years is self-inflicted
- Is Tesla's high valuation unsustainable? Wall Street: More and more like an ordinary car company!
- The negotiation strategy is more aggressive! The number of strikes by American car workers has expanded to 40000
- China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook: Continuing to suggest two rate cuts next year, Powell will refute aggressive rate cut expectations
- ExxonMobil sues radical investors seeking to prevent the annual shareholder meeting from voting on emission reduction proposals
- New York Community Bank's aggressive financial measures under regulatory pressure led to a volatile banking sector last week
- Japan suddenly raises interest rates! Just now, the Japanese stock market surged sharply! The Asia Pacific market has exploded across the board!
- Is the Sony PS5 Pro priced at nearly 5000 yuan too aggressive to "de optically drive"?
-
先週、米国の9月の民間部門の新規雇用者数は予想を超えて反発したが、注目されている米国の9月の非農業雇用データも市場予想をはるかに上回っており、2つのデータは米国の労働市場の冷え込みに対する投資家の懸念を ...
- 寒郁轩良
- 9 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
米非農業雇用データが発表され、FRBの利下げペースは鈍化したか。 現地時間10月4日、米国の最新の非農業雇用データは予想をはるかに上回った。市場はFRBの利下げペースが鈍化すると予想している。このデータが発表 ...
- 内托体头
- 前天 12:40
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
シリコンバレー大手のAI競争はますます激しくなり、あなたは私のところに来て、全速力で出撃します。 北京時間10月4日、OpenAIとMetaは同時に自分の新兵器を明らかにした。 MetaはMovie Genという新しいAIモデルを ...
- SOHU
- 前天 18:19
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
AIエクスプレスを通じて、蔚来官微信によると、10月4日、蔚来と会社の戦略投資家CYVNは戦略提携協定を締結し、アラブ首長国連邦アブダビに先進技術研究開発センターを設立し、知能運転と人工知能技術の研究開発に専 ...
- 什么大师特
- 前天 16:03
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏