This week, the US stock market recorded a four-day consecutive bullish trend with a weak upward trend. In contrast, Chinese concept stocks, Chinese asset ETFs, and Hong Kong stocks in the US have seen significant gains, making the outside world highly anticipating the performance of A-shares after the market opens next Tuesday.
Looking back at the weekly trend of the US stock market, the overall focus is on three major themes: the Federal Reserve, US employment data, and the Middle East conflict. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that he will gradually lower interest rates "over time," while emphasizing once again that the overall economic situation in the United States remains stable.
Next week, several Federal Reserve officials will speak out and the minutes of the September meeting will provide clues for investors on the next steps of the central bank's actions. The non farm payroll report on Friday far exceeded expectations, leading the market to expect a high probability (97%) that the bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November. However, given the September CPI report next Thursday, this forecast may still be subject to change.
In terms of the Middle East conflict, the situation is escalating on multiple fronts. Shortly before the press release, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a video speech stating that Israel is determined to resist threats from any country or region, including "from Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria - and of course, from Iran itself".
This week, international oil prices have surged sharply due to reports that Israel plans to respond to Iran's missile attacks and may retaliate against strategic targets such as Iranian oil facilities. Another senior US official stated that Israel has not assured the Biden administration that it will not strike Iran's nuclear facilities.
The US stock market will enter the Q3 earnings season, with financial giants such as JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock scheduled to release their performance reports next week. Prior to this, the financial reports of PepsiCo and Domino's Pizza are also worth paying attention to, as the popular weight-loss drugs in recent years may have a profound impact on the food industry.
Next Friday (October 11th) Beijing time, Tesla will hold a Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) launch event and also showcase its plan to release a dedicated platform for autonomous vehicles in the coming years. Musk confirmed on social media that this will be Tesla's' most important moment '.
Also next Friday, Nvidia's main competitor, AMD, will host "Advancing AI 2024," showcasing the fifth generation AMD EPYC server processors and advancements in networking and AI PCs, with a focus on introducing the AI solution ecosystem.
Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events Next Week (Beijing Time):
Monday (October 7th): A-shares will be closed for National Day trading
Tuesday (October 8th): Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari attended the Q&A session of the Bank Holding Companies Association's fall seminar, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic delivered a speech, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Musa Lem gave a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve Governor Kugler delivered a speech at the European Central Bank meeting, the US September NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, and the US August Trade Account
Wednesday (October 9th): EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook, Boston Fed President Collins speaks at community bank meeting, New Zealand Fed releases interest rate decision and monetary policy assessment report, Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers welcome speech at an event, Dallas Fed President Logan speaks on economic situation, Chicago Fed President Goolsby delivers opening speech at Chicago Payments Symposium, EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 4th in the United States
Thursday (October 10th): Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers speech, Fed releases minutes of monetary policy meeting, Boston Fed President Collins delivers speech, San Francisco Fed President Daley delivers speech, US September non quarterly CPI annual rate, Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a fireplace talk, New York Fed President Williams delivers speech on economic outlook and monetary policy and participates in discussions
Friday (October 11th): The Bank of Korea announced its interest rate decision, the September PPI annual rate in the United States, Chicago Fed President Gursby and Fed Governor Bauman attended the 18th Community Bankers Annual Symposium, and Dallas Fed President Logan participated in an expert panel discussion