Under the stimulus of the trade in policy, the domestic car market has entered the "golden nine and silver ten" stage.
The latest data released by the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference (referred to as the "Passenger Car Federation") shows that from September 1st to September 22nd, the retail sales volume of the domestic passenger car market was about 1.243 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%; Compared to the same period last month, it increased by 10% month on month.
Our internal market forecasting team's optimism for the September market has reached 93%, which is the highest market optimism in recent times, "said Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. The release of car replacement policies in various provinces in September has greatly eased consumers' wait-and-see sentiment and effectively promoted new car consumption.
On October 1st, multiple car companies released delivery data for September, all of which set new historical records:
Ideal Auto announced September delivery data: 53709 new cars were delivered, setting a new historical high in monthly delivery volume, with a year-on-year increase of 48.9%. In the third quarter of 2024, Ideal Automobile delivered 152831 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%.
According to data released by Jike, 21333 vehicles were delivered in September, setting a new historical high with a year-on-year increase of 77% and a month on month increase of 18%. A total of 142873 vehicles were delivered from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 81%. As of the end of September, Jike has delivered nearly 340000 vehicles.
Xiaopeng Motors announced that the delivery volume in September set a new monthly record of 21352 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 39%. A total of 46533 vehicles were delivered in the third quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16%.
During the National Day holiday, several car companies have launched limited time discount policies to compete in the peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October".
Among them, SAIC General Motors Buick brand announced the launch of the all-new Enclave Plus with a limited time fixed price for the golden autumn season. The new car starts at 169900 yuan and can enjoy up to 25000 yuan in trade in subsidies.
The Cadillac brand, also under SAIC General Motors, has launched a promotional offer for its all-new XT5, with a limited time fixed price range of 265900 yuan to 335900 yuan.
Dongfeng Nissan has also launched a limited time discount, offering up to 14000 yuan in trade in subsidies for the Qijun Black Gold Edition and X-Trail Black Gold Edition. It is reported that the event ends on October 31st.
In addition, Lynk&Co, SAIC Volkswagen, NIO, Xiaopeng Motors, and others have all launched limited time discounts or special offers during the "National Day Golden Week".
Industry insiders analyze that the active response of car companies to the "National Day Golden Week" is closely related to the continuous encouragement of previous policies.
At the end of July this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Several Measures to Strengthen Support for Large scale Equipment Renewal and Consumer Goods Trade in". Based on the "Implementation Rules for Automobile Trade in Subsidies", the subsidy standards for scrapped and renewed automobiles were once again raised, with a subsidy of 20000 yuan for the purchase of new energy passenger vehicles and a subsidy of 15000 yuan for the purchase of 2.0-liter and below displacement fuel passenger vehicles.
According to incomplete statistics from Securities Times · e Company reporters, since August, more than 15 provinces and cities including Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hubei, etc. have issued "trade in" policies for cars, encouraging car consumption with "real money and silver".
The stimulus of policy red envelopes has highlighted the peak sales season of "Golden September and Silver October" this year. Recently, several new cars have been launched, including the Passat Pro, Chery Tiggo 8PLUS, Extreme Yue 07, Haval H6 Classic Edition, Wenjie M9 Five seater Edition, Tengshi Z9GT, Extreme Krypton 7X, Deep Blue L07, all-new Zhiji LS6, Avita 07, Ledao L60, New Lantu Dreamer, Dongfeng Honda Lingxi L, and 2025 Guangqi Honda Accord. The influx of these new products has further promoted market warming.
For the future trend of the car market, multiple securities institutions have released research reports giving optimistic expectations. According to analysis by Guojin Securities, it is expected that the sales performance during this year's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will exceed expectations. It is expected that more opportunities in the automotive sector in 2024 will come from structural factors, and we continue to be optimistic about the competitive landscape of the leading players and internationalization.
Huafu Securities analyzed that with the introduction of local trade in subsidies, various car companies are rushing to boost sales, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to continue to improve.