The gold price is still soaring. Overnight, the spot gold price in London rose above $2580 per ounce, setting a new historical high once again; COMEX gold has broken through $2600 per ounce, reaching an all-time high.
Analysis suggests that the key factors driving the international gold price to continue reaching new highs are the US interest rate cuts, strong ETF demand, off exchange physical demand, and geopolitical factors. Many institutions have set their gold price expectations to a maximum of $3000 per ounce, and the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy direction may provide a stronger driving force for gold and accelerate the time point for gold to reach $3000 per ounce.
In terms of the US stock market, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index closed up for the fifth consecutive day this week, marking the largest weekly increase since November last year. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.72% to 41393.78 points; The S&P 500 index rose 0.54% to 5626.02 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.65% to close at 17683.98 points.
In terms of individual stocks, the stock price of aircraft manufacturing giant Boeing plummeted sharply during the trading session, ultimately closing down 3.69%. Boeing's West Coast factory employees went on strike early on the 13th local time, with about 33000 people participating. CNN reported that the strike will bring Boeing's commercial aircraft production to a basic halt. This strike is Boeing's first in 16 years.
International gold prices continue to reach new highs
The path of gold climbing to new highs seems to have not stopped yet.
Overnight, the spot gold price in London rose above $2580 per ounce, reaching a record high of $2586.28 per ounce. The futures market followed suit, with COMEX gold breaking through $2600 per ounce and reaching an all-time high of $2614.6 per ounce.
Aakash Doshi, head of Citigroup's North American Commodity Division, said on Friday that gold prices could reach $2600 per ounce by the end of 2024 and $3000 per ounce by mid-2025, driven by US interest rate cuts, strong ETF demand, and off exchange physical demand.
Geopolitics is another major factor driving up gold prices. Daniel Pavilonis, Senior Market Strategist at RJO Futures, stated that it is possible for gold to reach its target of $3000 per ounce. He also added that this situation may be driven by political turmoil after the election.
At present, the key to determining the future trend of gold prices is still the interest rate cut cycle that the Federal Reserve will start next week. At present, major central banks have fully launched interest rate cuts, such as the European Central Bank's second 25 basis point rate cut of the year on Thursday.
Macquarie Bank in Australia raised its gold price expectations this week. The bank predicts that the cyclical peak average price of gold in the first quarter of next year will be $2600 per ounce, and there may be a short-term surge towards $3000 per ounce.
Peter A. Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, believes that if the upcoming data indicates growth risks and a weak labor market, the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in November or December will increase, which will have a greater driving force on gold and accelerate the time point for gold to reach $3000 per ounce.
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices have risen for five consecutive years
On Friday local time, the US stock market continued its moderate upward trend. Among them, both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index closed up for the fifth consecutive day this week, marking the largest weekly increase since November last year.
As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 297.01 points, or 0.72%, to 41393.78 points; The S&P 500 index rose 30.26 points, or 0.54%, to 5626.02 points; The Nasdaq rose 114.30 points, or 0.65%, to close at 17683.98 points.
Large tech stocks fluctuated, with Intel, Google, and Netflix soaring by over 1%, while Tesla and Microsoft saw slight gains; Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and Apple experienced slight declines.
Popular Chinese concept stocks have fluctuated, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 0.06% and a cumulative increase of 1.03% this week. NIO rose over 5%, Xiaopeng Motors rose over 4%, Ideal Auto and Futu Holdings rose over 1%, while Manbang, NetEase, and Weibo saw slight increases. Bilibili fell more than 3%, Pinduoduo and Tencent Music fell more than 2%, JD.com and iQiyi fell more than 1%, and Alibaba, Vipshop, and Baidu fell slightly.
The important factor driving the US stock market on Friday was journalist Nick Timislaus, known as the "voice of the Federal Reserve". He regarded next week's 25 basis point Fed rate cut as a safe option in the article, but also listed a series of reasons to support a 50 basis point rate cut.
The "Federal Reserve Messenger" reported that the expected probability of a 50 basis point rate cut next week rose to 45% on Friday, while the indicator fell to single digits this week.
Boeing's intraday plunge
On Friday local time, the US stock Boeing plummeted sharply during trading, with a drop of 3.69% as of the close.
According to Xinhua News Agency, employees of Boeing's West Coast factory went on strike early on the 13th local time, with about 33000 people participating. CNN reported that the strike will bring Boeing's commercial aircraft production to a basic halt.
The International Federation of American Mechanical and Aerospace Workers said that union members from Boeing overwhelmingly refused to sign a four-year labor contract with the company. This strike is Boeing's first in 16 years.
According to Reuters, Boeing employees involved in the strike are mainly responsible for producing 737 MAX and other aircraft models in the Seattle and Portland areas.
On the 13th, CNN reported that this strike will bring Boeing's commercial aircraft production to a basic halt and may impact the US economy. If the strike lasts for a long time, nearly 10000 Boeing suppliers across almost 50 states in the United States may experience problems.
Standard&Poor's Global says that if the strike does not end in the short term, it may delay Boeing's performance recovery and damage its credit rating. The credit rating given by Standard&Poor's and another rating agency Moody's to Boeing is currently slightly above junk level.
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