The significant slowdown in employment growth in the United States indicates that the economy will cool down
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发表于 2023-11-4 19:29:57
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The sharp slowdown in employment growth in the United States last month indicates that the economy is cooling down this autumn after a scorching summer.
The Ministry of Labor announced on Friday that employers added 150000 non farm jobs in October, half the increase from the previous month and the smallest monthly increase since June. The unemployment rate has risen to 3.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, and wage growth has slowed down.
These data are likely to bring to an end the historic rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as they strongly demonstrate that rising borrowing costs have led to an economic slowdown. This report may also alleviate concerns that strong consumer spending this summer will lead to a resurgence in recruitment or salary growth.
After the report was released, the US stock index rose and the yield of US treasury bond bonds fell.
The sharp slowdown in employment growth in the United States last month indicates that the economy is cooling down this autumn after a scorching summer.
The Ministry of Labor announced on Friday that employers added 150000 non farm jobs in October, half the increase from the previous month and the smallest monthly increase since June. The unemployment rate has risen to 3.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, and wage growth has slowed down.
These data are likely to bring to an end the historic rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as they strongly demonstrate that rising borrowing costs have led to an economic slowdown. This report may also alleviate concerns that strong consumer spending this summer will lead to a resurgence in recruitment or salary growth.
After the report was released, the US stock index rose and the yield of US treasury bond bonds fell.
The report indicates that the employment market, which has performed better than expected for most of this year, has experienced a decline. Now, given high interest rates, ongoing inflation, and wars in Europe and the Middle East, employers are cutting back on expenses.
Moreover, almost all of the employment growth comes from three industries - healthcare, government, leisure, and hotel, while no new employment has emerged in other areas of the economy. This is in stark contrast to the broader recruitment momentum that emerged earlier this year.
October may be a turning point for the economy, "said Kathy Bostjanic, Chief Economist at Nationwide. We see a cooling demand for labor and a slowdown in income growth, which means we will see a significant slowdown in consumer spending
Bostjacic expects an economic recession in the first half of next year. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last month believe that the likelihood of an economic recession next year is 50%.
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