According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Tuesday, the official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in October, once again falling into a contraction range after a month.
The Bureau of Statistics stated that in October, due to factors such as the "National Day" holiday and the early release of pre holiday demand, the PMI prosperity level of the manufacturing industry decreased.
Previously, in September, the PMI rose to 50.2, marking the first time since April this year that it had risen to an expansion range.
In January of this year, the PMI rebounded to 50.1, returning to expansion after three months; In February, it rose to 52.6, the highest level since April 2012, which shows that the manufacturing industry recovered rapidly after the control of the COVID-19 epidemic was released last December. In April, the PMI dropped to 49.2, falling below the critical point again after three months, and then began a five month contraction, reaching 49.7 in August.
Under the repeated influence of the COVID-19, in 2022, the official manufacturing PMI will fluctuate along the boom and bust lines, with the peak of 50.2 in June and the low of 47.4 in April (this value will be the lowest since February 2020).
In February 2020, the official manufacturing PMI hit a record low of 35.7, due to the sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 at the end of January.
The PMI in October exceeded market expectations.
According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, the median expectation given by surveyed economists suggests that China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index may remain unchanged at 50.2 in October.
A PMI index above 50 indicates an expansion of manufacturing activity, while a PMI index below 50 indicates a contraction.
The Bureau of Statistics interpreted the data and stated that due to factors such as a high base in September and a decrease in working days in October, the production index for this month was 50.9, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month and still above the critical point.
In terms of industries, the production index of industries such as agricultural and sideline food processing, automobiles, railways, ships, aviation and aerospace equipment is all higher than 55; However, industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting, and rolling processing are all below the critical point.
From the perspective of market demand, the new order index in October was 49.5, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in demand.
From the perspective of key industries, the new order indices of the equipment manufacturing industry and the consumer goods industry are 52.2 and 51.8, respectively, continuing to be in the expansion range; The index of new orders in high energy consuming industries dropped to 46.4, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month; The survey results show that the proportion of enterprises in high energy consuming industries such as textiles, chemical raw materials and products, black metal smelting and rolling processing that reflect insufficient market demand exceeds 60%.
However, market expectations remain positive. The expected index of production and business activities in October was 55.6, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been in a high economic range for four consecutive months.
In terms of prices, due to factors such as the recent decline in some commodity prices and the decline in market demand, the main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were 52.6 and 47.7, respectively, a decrease of 6.8 and 5.8 percentage points compared to the previous month.
Among them, the purchase price index and factory price index of major raw materials in industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and products, chemical fiber and rubber plastic products, black metal smelting and rolling processing have significantly decreased.
According to the size of the enterprise, the PMI of large enterprises continues to be above the critical point, at 50.7, and remains within the expansion range. Especially, their production index and new order index are both above the critical point, and the production and demand of enterprises are relatively stable; The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.7 and 47.9 respectively, a decrease of 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the level of prosperity.
The Bureau of Statistics also announced that in October, the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month and continuing to exceed the critical point. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the comprehensive PMI output index, are 50.9 and 50.6, respectively.
Since January 2018, China has released a monthly comprehensive PMI output index, which is a comprehensive output indicator used to monitor the overall economic development and cyclical changes of a country or region in the current period, to make up for the shortcomings of manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing PMI that can only reflect the development status of their respective industries.