Trump's plan to return to the White House exposed!
六月清晨搅
发表于 2024-7-17 15:47:25
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The atmosphere of 'Trump' is full!
According to Bloomberg, former US President Donald Trump gave a 90 minute interview to Bloomberg Businessweek at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, extensively discussing the state of the US economy and business, as well as his plans for a possible re-election to the White House.
Trump stated that he has reduced his economic agenda to low interest rates and low taxes, and has shown great motivation to get the job done and bring businesses back to the United States. In addition, he will also allow Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to complete his term without allowing him to step down early, and his term will end in May 2026. Trump hopes to lower the corporate tax rate to 15% and no longer plans to ban TIKTOK.
However, Wall Street's concerns about Trump's return have also begun. Analysts warn that Trump's second presidential term may reignite global inflation as his "America First" policy will push up global costs. Additionally, Wall Street is also concerned about his choice of vice presidential candidate, Vance.
[align center] Trump's ambitious plan
Recently, Bloomberg Businessweek revealed a previous interview with Trump. In this interview, Trump revealed some of his plans after returning to the White House.
Trump said that 'Trump economics' is equivalent to' low interest rates and low taxes'. This is a huge driving force for completing tasks and bringing businesses back to the United States. Trump plans to conduct more oil drilling and reduce regulation. He will close the southern border. He will squeeze enemies and allies to obtain better trade conditions. He will unleash the cryptocurrency industry and curb reckless large tech companies.
He stated that if he wins, he will allow Jerome Powell to complete his term as Federal Reserve Chair until May 2026. Trump hopes to lower the corporate tax rate to a low of 15% and no longer plans to ban TikTok. He will consider appointing Jamie Damon, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, as the Secretary of the Treasury.
The overall approach of Trump's economics may not differ from his first term thinking. The difference is that he intends to implement these policies at a faster and more efficient pace. He believes that he now has a deeper understanding of the levers of power, including the importance of choosing the right people for the right job.
He still has ideas about interest rate policy in the short term regarding the issue of US interest rates. Trump warns that the Federal Reserve should avoid cutting interest rates before the November election to avoid boosting the economy and Biden. Wall Street predicts that there will be two interest rate cuts before the end of this year, one of which is crucial, before the election.
Regarding inflation, Trump has been criticizing Biden's management of the economy. He saw the anger caused by high prices and interest rates as an opportunity to attract voters who usually do not support the Republican Party, such as black and Hispanic people. Trump said he will conduct more oil and gas drilling to lower prices.
Regarding immigration issues. Trump believes that strict restrictions are the key to increasing domestic wages and employment. He described immigration restrictions as the 'most important factor' that determines how he reshapes the economy and is particularly advantageous in winning support from minority groups. Millions of immigrants are pouring into the United States, and black people will suffer a heavy blow. They have already felt that their wages have dropped significantly and their jobs have been taken away by illegal immigrants.
However, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, since 2018, the majority of job growth has come from naturalized US citizens and legal residents, rather than immigrants.
Regarding the budget deficit. Trump hopes to renew the landmark 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (expected to cost $4.6 trillion) and further reduce corporate taxes, but no matter how explained, this cannot achieve budget balance. In addition, economists predict that his protectionist policies will put upward pressure on interest rates, and Trump's plan may exacerbate the growing debt burden in the United States.
In terms of diplomacy, Trump has broken the Republican Party's long-standing orthodoxy of supporting free trade. He said that if re elected, he would "go further" and also plan to raise tariffs on the EU. He also stated that a comprehensive tariff of 10% will be imposed on imported products from other countries, citing numerous complaints from foreign countries about insufficient purchases of American goods. He mentioned that Europe's unwillingness to import American cars and agricultural products is the main reason for the trade deficit exceeding $200 billion, which is a key indicator of economic fairness.
In contrast, his attitude towards Saudi Arabia is more friendly. Trump stated that he has had conversations with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud in the past six months, but declined to elaborate on the nature and frequency of the conversations. Trump accuses Biden and former President Barack Obama of damaging the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia.
[align center] Wall Street's concerns
However, before Trump took office, Wall Street's concerns had already begun.
Wall Street analysts say that Trump's second presidential term may reignite global inflation as his "America First" policy will push up global costs. The economic agenda of high tariffs and low taxes was the main focus of Trump's first term, which itself would lead to inflation, and this time the policy will be even more destructive because the "inflation mentality" still exists.
Michael Metcalfe, Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Global Markets, stated that the risk of inflation caused by Trump's policies during his second term may be greater than during his first term. Compared to 2016, the inflation rate was consistently low and inflation expectations were also low. The current situation is quite different, with higher inflation levels and higher inflation expectations. This may not only affect price increases within the United States, but also affect price increases in Asia and Europe outside of the United States.
A recent survey of economists shows that most people believe that inflation rates will rise during Trump's presidency due to his tough protectionist stance.
According to a report by Gareth Nicholson of Nomura Securities, the rise in inflation rates may also spread to Asia. Trump's election as president will mark the emergence of "negative risk factors" in the overall Asian stock market. From a macro perspective, this will lead to global economic inflation (and even possible stagflation) and accelerate the transfer of supply chains within Asia.
Goldman Sachs predicted in a report last Friday that Trump's election as president could lead to a 0.1 percentage point increase in inflation as higher tariffs put pressure on global trade.
In addition, Wall Street's concerns about Trump's running mate JD Vance have also begun to emerge. It is widely believed that, given the Ohio Republican's past populist rhetoric and policy preferences, the second Trump administration may be far less friendly to American businesses than the first.
Stifel's chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner wrote in a report to clients on Monday that Trump's decision is another sign that this is no longer the Republican Party of your father's era. Senator Vance may represent a long-term shift in the Republican Party that will continue after Trump. Reagan Republicans are gradually disappearing, and their influence will weaken in the future, and Vance's rise is part of this transformation.
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声明：该文观点仅代表作者本人，本文不代表CandyLake.com立场，且不构成建议，请谨慎对待。
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