In the first quarter, Tesla delivered 386810 cars globally, a decrease of 8.5% from the same period last year. This is also the first year-on-year decline in Tesla's delivery volume since 2020, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects. On Tuesday (July 2nd), the delivery data for the second quarter will also be released, and Tesla's stock price may experience significant fluctuations.
At present, the market generally expects Tesla's delivery volume in the second quarter to face difficulties again. According to a survey of 12 analysts by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), Tesla's expected delivery volume for the second quarter was 438000 vehicles, compared to 466000 vehicles in the same period last year, with 7 analysts significantly lowering their expectations in the past three months.
This may be the first time that the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer has seen two consecutive quarters of declining delivery volume, due to fierce competition in China, slowing consumer demand for electric vehicles, and Tesla's lack of reasonably priced new models.
Growth prospects questioned
After years of rapid growth, Tesla has entered its own deceleration period. The company warned in January that delivery growth in 2024 would "significantly decline" as the boost from months of price cuts weakened.
In the May 2023 Impact Report, Tesla did not mention its previous goal of achieving an annual sales volume of 20 million vehicles, and there is speculation that Tesla has abandoned its goal of achieving 20 million vehicles by 2030.
Earlier this year, Musk promised to accelerate the launch of affordable models. However, the person working with this CEO stated that his main focus now is on launching a completely autonomous car, the Robotaxi, which is scheduled to be officially released on August 8th.
But some investors are concerned that autonomous driving technology is difficult to improve. However, at last month's annual shareholder meeting, investors overwhelmingly voted in favor of Musk's $56 billion compensation plan.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy predicts that Tesla's delivery volume will decline by 11% in the second quarter, the largest decline in Tesla's history. He said that if the delivery data is poor, it may refocus people on the challenging fundamental environment Tesla is currently facing.
Tesla's stock price has fallen by a fifth this year, making it the worst performing stock among the seven giants, despite Musk predicting in April that Tesla could increase sales this year.
Some analysts predict that the company will experience its first annual sales decline this year. Tesla's sales in Europe were particularly weak, with a 36% decline in May due to reduced subsidies for electric vehicles and poor demand from fleet operators. Last year, fleet operators accounted for nearly half of Tesla's sales in Europe.
At the same time, Chinese competitors have launched cheaper models, while Tesla has made slow progress in this area. Tesla updated the Model 3 sedan at the end of last year, but did not make significant design improvements. The company's best-selling models have not undergone significant improvements in recent years.
The company began delivering Cybertruck electric pickup trucks at the end of last year, but Musk expects to mass produce this model by 2025. According to industry insiders analyzing Tesla's recall data, Tesla delivered a total of 10525 Cyberracks in 2024, with an average monthly delivery volume of 1754.