This week, the three major US stock indexes have diverged, with the Nasdaq closing at a new high for the fifth consecutive trading day, while the Dow Jones has fallen 0.54%.
On a macro level, the slowdown in US CPI and PPI slightly exceeded expectations, increasing market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this year, and leading to a significant decrease in US bond rates. Although the Federal Reserve's statement and Powell's statement lean towards the hawkish side, they are still overshadowed by positive inflation data.
With the resolution, Federal Reserve policy makers have also emerged from a period of silence. Next week, several senior Federal Reserve officials will appear to speak, including board members Cook and Kugler, as well as local Federal Reserve chairpersons such as Collins, Musalem, and Goolsby.
Yesterday, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsby stated that this week's CPI data was "very good", but he pointed out not to be overly optimistic because it is only one month's data. It is expected that officials may try to suppress the optimistic sentiment in the market and reiterate their cautious stance.
Another major factor contributing to the Nasdaq's rise this week was the renewed hype at the Apple Developer Conference over the concept of artificial intelligence (AI), which boosted the technology sector. But the current "three giants" - Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia - each face regulatory risks.
The latest news is that the European Union will accuse Apple of allegedly suppressing competition in its mobile app store. Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI have also been targeted by the US Department of Justice and are being investigated for antitrust by agencies such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).
After the Federal Reserve, the main central banks scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions next week are the Reserve of Australia, the Bank of Switzerland, and the Bank of England. Currently, the market believes that the Reserve of Australia and the Bank of England have a high probability of not taking action, while whether the Bank of Switzerland will cut rates is a matter of "five to five".
According to investment bank analysis, the Swiss central bank will pay special attention to the trend of the Swiss franc next week, especially the exchange rate fluctuations between the Swiss franc and the euro. Due to the political turmoil in France, the CAC40 index led a decline in European stock markets this week, driving the euro to its lowest level against the US dollar since early May.
On Friday, French Finance Minister Le Maire stated that if the country's far right wing wins the National Assembly elections in the coming weeks, it will face the risk of a financial crisis. He also warned that if the left-wing coalition takes office, it may lead to France's withdrawal from the European Union.
In terms of economic data, next week is worth paying attention to factors such as US retail sales, European and American PMI, and Japanese inflation. The US stock market earnings season has entered a lackluster phase, with only Accenture and Kroger being well-known next Thursday.
The US stock market will be closed for one day next Wednesday due to the June holiday.
Overview of important overseas economic events next week (Beijing time):
Monday (June 17th): Chief Economist of the European Central Bank, Lynn Lane, delivered a speech, Vice President of the European Central Bank, James Sanders, delivered a speech, and the New York Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index for June in the United States
Tuesday (June 18th): Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck gave a speech on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve Director Lisa Cook gave a speech, Federal Reserve of Australia announced interest rate resolution, Federal Reserve of Australia Chairman Bullock held a monetary policy press conference, Eurozone May CPI annual rate, Eurozone June ZEW economic prosperity index, US May industrial output monthly rate, US April commercial inventory monthly rate, Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin gave a speech on US economy and monetary policy, Boston Fed Chairman Collins gave a speech
Wednesday (June 19th): Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman Logan participated in a Q&A session, Federal Reserve Director Kugler delivered a speech, St. Louis Fed Chairman Musalem delivered a speech, Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsby delivered a speech, Bank of Japan released April monetary policy meeting minutes, UK May CPI month rate, Eurozone April quarter adjusted current account, US June NAHB real estate market index
Thursday (June 20th): The Bank of Canada releases the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, the Swiss Bank releases its interest rate decision, the Norwegian Bank releases its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, the Bank of England releases its interest rate decision and meeting minutes, the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 15th in the United States, the annualized total number of new housing starts in May in the United States, the US current account for the first quarter, and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index for June in the United States
Friday (June 21): Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin delivered a speech on economic outlook, Japan's May core CPI annual rate, Eurozone June manufacturing/service PMI initial value, UK June manufacturing/service PMI initial value, US June S&P global manufacturing/service PMI initial value, US May annualized total housing sales, and US May consulting firm leading indicator monthly rate