On Sunday (June 9th) local time, with the results of the European Parliament elections being announced, a severe earthquake hit the French political scene.
In this election, the support rate of the ruling party in France was much lower than that of the country's far right political party. Therefore, French President Macron made a bold decision: he will dissolve the French National Assembly and hold parliamentary elections nationwide in advance.
Macron's decision can be considered very risky, as his ruling party's domestic support rate is significantly lower than that of the far right political party. If the French ruling party loses in this parliamentary election, it will mean that Macron will lose decision-making power over key domestic affairs in France during his next three-year presidential term.
However, Macron's decision may not have been a momentary brainwave. The move he made may be for the sake of survival.
The far right forces are expanding significantly in the European Parliament
The European Parliament elections were held from June 6th to 9th, with 370 million citizens from 27 EU member states voting on the 720 seat candidates for the new European Parliament. The European Parliament is one of the three major institutions of the European Union and the only one directly elected by voters within the EU. This institution is mainly responsible for voting on EU immigration, energy, climate change and other policy bills, and participating in the approval of the EU's annual budget.
The preliminary vote count shows that in this year's elections, it is expected that the center right European People's Party (EPP) will still win the most parliamentary seats again. However, at the same time, the right-wing and far right forces in Europe have significantly expanded, and it is expected that far right parties will achieve a record high number of seats.
Current composition of seats in the European Parliament
Expected results of this European Parliament election
According to export polls, the three major far right political parties with European skepticism - the ECR, the Identity and Democratic Party (ID), and the Alternative Choice Party (AfD) in Germany - are expected to gain a total of 146 seats, an increase of 19 seats.
The pro European center right, center left, liberal, and green parties are expected to win 456 seats, still retaining a majority, but their number of seats has significantly decreased compared to the 488 seats in the previous parliament.
In this regard, the ruling parties of France and Germany have both suffered heavy blows from the country's far right forces.
On Sunday local time, an export poll released by French public television showed that the far right party, the National Alliance led by Marine Le Pen, will win about 31.5% of the vote, significantly surpassing Macron's ruling party, the Renaissance Party, which only won 15.2% of the vote.
At the same time, German Chancellor Scholz also experienced a painful night as his Social Democratic Party achieved its worst performance in history under the suppression of the far right German Select Party (AfD) in the country.
The election results of the European Parliament indicate further right-wing tendencies within the EU. However, at the same time, the far right political parties in Europe themselves are not united - they are currently divided into at least two different camps.
This means that the partisan forces within the EU will become more fragmented, and it also means that it will be more difficult to reach consensus within the EU in the future, in order to pass new laws on addressing security challenges, climate change, and global industrial competition.
Will Macron face a destined disastrous defeat?
After a disastrous defeat in the European Parliament elections, Macron made a bold decision to dissolve the French National Assembly and hold two rounds of early voting for the National Assembly elections on June 30th and July 7th.
"I have heard your message and concerns, and I cannot act as if nothing has happened," Macron said in a televised speech. "France needs a clear majority to take action calmly and harmoniously."
Le Pen welcomed the news and said on X, "We are ready."
Holger Schmiding, Chief Economist of Berenberg Bank, said in a report on Sunday evening:
"By unexpectedly pushing things to a climax in the new parliamentary elections, Macron may hope to revive his party's fate... However, unless there is a significant change in public sentiment, it seems that his party will suffer a disastrous defeat in the National Assembly elections."
He added that for France, which is facing financial challenges, the new elections have added uncertainty and may raise some market concerns.
Why is Macron eager for early elections?
At present, the Renaissance Party led by Macron holds 169 seats out of 577 seats in the French House of Representatives, while the National League holds 88 seats.
If the National League wins a majority of seats in this French parliamentary election, then until the next presidential election (2027), Macron, as the current president, will still guide the country's defense and foreign policy, but will lose the power to set key domestic agendas such as economy and security.
Consulting firm Teneo said, "Macron initiated an election that he is likely to lose."
The company believes that Macron's ultimate "goal may be to advance the National League's victory in parliamentary elections, exposing the party's lack of experience in governance and causing them to be defeated in the 2027 presidential election."
Former International Monetary Fund (IMF) official and Professor Olivier Blanchard, who currently works at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said that Macron is actually making full use of his weaknesses.
He wrote on X that according to Macron's plan, two scenarios may develop in the future: "Either the National League exposes internal differences and inconsistencies in its policy stance during parliamentary elections and loses the election, or the National League wins parliamentary elections, begins governance, and quickly messes things up."
Expose the weaknesses of the National League in advance?
Blanchard's mention of "internal divisions within the National League itself" may imply a potential competition between the current chairman of the party, Baldra, and the actual "number one figure", Le Pen.
In order to gain broader support, two years ago, Le Pen vigorously promoted Jordan Bardella, the party's "number two figure," as party chairman, and Bardella became her potential competitor within the party.
In November 2022, Le Pen voluntarily stepped down as the chairman of the National League Party and promoted his niece's husband, then only 27 years old Baldra, to the position of chairman in order to gain support from young French people and a wider audience for the National League.
Due to his handsome appearance, youthful confidence, and relatively more moderate political stance, Baldra quickly gained a large number of support in France and also helped the National League gradually transform its far right external image.
28 year old President of the National League, Baldra (first from left)
In a survey released by Ipsos in May this year, 32% of respondents said they would be satisfied if Baldra were elected president in 2027. This proportion is even higher than Le Pen, who ranks second with a 31% approval rating. This poll result may expose the potential risk of internal divisions within the National League.
In addition, in order to attract a wider range of voters, the National League recently abandoned its campaign promises to withdraw from the European Union and abandon the euro, which may also indicate a lack of coherence in its policy stance.
"The results of today's (European Parliament) elections, as well as the possible victory of the National Union in the early parliamentary elections in France, may not necessarily lead Le Pen to ultimately embark on the path of president - this is a completely different matter," said Schmidin of Berenberg Bank
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