On Monday (October 30th local time), the World Bank stated that as the global economy slows down and reduces demand, it expects an average oil price of $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and will drop to $81 per barrel next year.
The bank wrote in its October Commodity Market Outlook that since the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, international crude oil prices have only risen by about 6%, while prices of other commodities such as agricultural products and most metals have "remained almost unchanged".
The World Bank believes that if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict does not escalate, the impact on commodities should be limited. The bank expects the overall prices of commodities to decrease by 4.1% in 2024, with base metal prices falling by 5% and agricultural product prices also decreasing due to increased supply. The overall prices will stabilize in 2025.
After the report was released, international crude oil prices significantly decreased, with the price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropping nearly 3.5% to $82.59 per barrel;
The London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery fell more than 3% to $86.47 per barrel.
The article explains that geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on commodity prices, which may reflect an increase in the global economy's ability to absorb oil price shocks. Since the outbreak of the energy crisis in the 1970s, countries have strengthened their ability to withstand oil price shocks and reduced their dependence on oil - compared to that time, the amount of oil required for a US dollar GDP has decreased by as much as half.
Specifically, countries now have more diversified sources of oil and a wider range of resources such as renewable energy. Some countries have established strategic oil reserves, coordinated supply arrangements, and established futures markets, all of which can alleviate the short-term impact of oil shortages on prices.
If the conflict escalates
However, the World Bank warns that the above scenario is based on the premise that the Middle East conflict does not escalate; If the conflict escalates, the outlook for commodity prices will quickly darken. Based on historical experience since the 1970s, the bank has outlined the possible scenarios that may arise under three risk scenarios:
Under the scenario of "small-scale interference", global oil supply will decrease by 500000 to 2 million barrels per day, roughly equivalent to the reduction during the Libyan civil war in 2011. In this situation, oil prices will reach $93 to $102 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.
Under the scenario of "moderate interference", oil supply will decrease by 3 to 5 million barrels per day, equivalent to the 2003 Iraq War, and oil prices will rise to $109 to $121 per barrel;
Under the scenario of 'large-scale disruption', oil supply will decrease by 6 to 8 million barrels, equivalent to the oil embargo initiated by Arab countries against Israel and the West in 1973, and oil prices will rise to $140 to $157 per barrel.
Source: World Bank Report
The Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Development Economics of the World Bank, Indmett Gil, pointed out that the devastating impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the global economy has continued to this day, and policymakers need to be vigilant. "If the conflict escalates, the global economy will face the first dual energy shock in decades - not only from Ukraine, but also from the Middle East."
The bank also stated that given the recent surge in the price of Russian Ural crude oil, the introduction of a $60 per barrel price cap by Western countries at the end of last year seems increasingly difficult to implement. "Russia has been able to trade at prices above the cap, and the official benchmark price of the Ural in August has reached $80 per barrel
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