This week, driven by the expected slowdown in CPI, the US stock market has significantly strengthened, with all three major indices reaching historic highs. At the same time, prices of precious metals and industrial metals denominated in US dollars have collectively risen.
Although some investors have expressed concerns about the persistence of the stock market rebound, U S. Tom Hainlin, Senior Investment Strategist at Bank Asset Management, believes that the combination of economic growth and slowing inflation is a perfect catalyst. "At least in 2024, this is a fairly optimistic setting," he said
The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has also increased. As of the time of writing, the "Federal Reserve" observation tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the probability of the bank starting interest rate cuts in the summer is close to 30%; The probability of a rate cut of more than 25 basis points from the current level by the September interest rate meeting is over 60%.
Next week, several senior Federal Reserve officials will appear to speak, including board members Barr and Waller, as well as local Federal Reserve chairpersons such as Williams and Bostic. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting will also be released on Thursday. President Powell was scheduled to deliver a speech at the graduation ceremony of Georgetown University Law School next Monday, but he changed to attend the ceremony by video because of his positive COVID-19.
In addition to the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve of New Zealand, the Bank of Korea and the Bank of Türkiye will make interest rate decisions next week. Although Switzerland and Sweden have relaxed their monetary policies, most central banks around the world are still watching the changes. Another reason is that they are concerned that cutting interest rates before the Federal Reserve may lead to rapid currency depreciation.
In terms of data, PMI in Europe and America, inflation in Japan, and others are also worth paying attention to. A media survey released earlier this week showed that as Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, emerged from a nearly stagnant situation in over a year, the growth rate of the eurozone economy this year will exceed previous expectations.
Although the financial reporting season has entered its closing stage, it has not missed the explosive point. Among them, NVIDIA, a "super heavyweight stock" and "AI seller," is scheduled to release its financial report after the US stock market closes next Wednesday (early Thursday morning Beijing time). As the current leader in the field of AI chips, every move by Nvidia is affecting the nerves of the global market.
According to the consensus expectation prepared by Visible Alpha, Nvidia's revenue in the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year is expected to reach $24.65 billion, a more than double year-on-year growth. Previously, the company provided a revenue guidance of $24 billion, with a fluctuation of 2%; Expected net profit for the same period is 12.87 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of over 530%.
Several popular Chinese concept stock companies will also release their performance, including Pinduoduo, Ideal Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, NetEase, Bilibili, etc. The 13F table released this week shows that Hillhouse and Gao Yi, two major private equity firms, are firmly optimistic about Pinduoduo and choose to continue to increase their holdings. Currently, this stock is the largest holdings of the two major private equity firms.
In addition, Yihang Intelligence, the first stock of flying cars, will also announce its first quarter performance. Earlier this month, Yihang Intelligence received its first coverage from Morgan Stanley's rating report, with a rating of "overweight" and a target price of $27.50. Yihang Intelligent executives predict that the market will experience a comprehensive outbreak from 2026 to 2027.
Overview of important overseas economic events next week (Beijing time):
Monday (May 20th): Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a video speech at the graduation ceremony of Georgetown University Law School, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a welcome speech at an event, and Federal Reserve Director Barr delivered a speech
Tuesday (May 21): South Korea and the United Kingdom host an AI summit, the Bank of Japan holds its second policy review seminar, the Federal Reserve of Australia releases the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting, and US Treasury Secretary Yellen& European Central Bank President Lagarde; German Finance Minister Lindner delivered a speech, Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin delivered a welcome speech at an event, Federal Reserve Director Waller delivered a speech on the US economy, New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered an opening speech at an event, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostek delivered a welcome speech at an event, and Federal Reserve Director Bar attended a fireside conversation
On Wednesday, May 22nd, Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech at the London School of Economics and Political Science; Mest& Collins attended a group discussion on "Central Banks in the Post Epidemic Financial System", the New Zealand Federal Reserve announced interest rate resolutions and monetary policy statements, and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goolsby delivered an opening speech at an event
Thursday (May 23)
Friday (May 24th): Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostek participates in a student Q&A event, European Central Bank Executive Director Schnabel delivers a speech, Japan's April core CPI annual rate, Germany's first quarter unadjusted GDP annual rate final value, Swiss Bank President Jordan delivers a speech, Federal Reserve Director Waller delivers a speech, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value for May in the United States